Zapster's NBA Totalzzz

[Zapster]

Ok......it's that time of the year again !!!

November record last year was 33-27
December record last year was 63-46

All of the plays were posted on Rx in advance of the games. In January things went south and I took some time off to retool my formula.....and finished strong in the late season and especially in the playoffs. The formula I am using today is the same one I STARTED OFF WITH last year, since it seemed to work so well in the early going. One thing I did learn last year was that what works in games 11-30 does not necessarily work in games 31-60 !!

Messing around early this season...mostly because I didn't want to wait to get going in the BCN contest, I have gone 13-4 (10-4 is what my record shows, but on my second day, unaware of the three play limit, I posted 6 plays and the last three were winners but do not reflect on my contest record)......but for the purpose of this thread I am starting out at 0-0 since I contend that 10 games need to be played out before the stats are reliable enough to count on.

I will also simplify the units involved and classify my plays 4 ways: "Leans" (1 Unit) "Plays" (2 Units) "Biggies" (3 Units) and rarely there will be a 4 Unit play. Not sure what to call those yet.

As some of you may remember, Tater and I found that when both of us selected the same game we tended to hit at a pretty high percentage and when we agreed on one of the "Biggies" the percentage of winners was even higher. We will keep those plays in a separate thread.

I have also been pretty sucessful so far with 2nd half plays posted in this forum (19-12 so far). I will also keep those in separate threads. This thread will just be for my daily full game totals and records.

Lastly.....for those of you who don't want to sift through my (sometimes mindless) banter, I will put the plays themselves in bold font so they stand out.

I've been looking forward to doing this since last year's playoffs. I hope this is profitable for all who read this.....and for me !!!

Anyway.....let's get right down to business. Here is what I have come up with for Monday, November 22nd:

Minnesota OVER 194.5 (Play - 2 Units)
Chicago OVER 201 (Lean -1 Unit)
New Orleans OVER 186.5 (BIGGIE - 3 Units)

 

[TescoVee]

thanks Zap. been looking foward to these totals. I wasn't around last year but everyone speaks highly of them.


Surprised the over is the play with NO without B Diddy. seems they are a bit stagnant when he is out.

 

[~Falco~]

Does Now being out for Dallas alter your play?

 

[Zapster]

I (hopefully) leave enough of a cushion in these plays...especially early in the season that one injury won't turn a play into a non play. So....while Nowitski (and Davis) probobly will cost some points, I still like the overs.

Also....and probably more importantly....the oddsmakers tend to overcompensate for these things.

 

[quantumleap]

Does Now being out for Dallas alter your play?

I love situations like this. This line opened at 200 and went down to 194 when it was found that Nowitzky was going to be out. The reason I like this is because of what happened last week in the 2nd half of Dallas/Phoenix. I bet the under in that half because Nowitzky had 3 fouls and 2 of the Mavs players were injured. Nowitzky sat out much of the 2nd half allowing the Suns to score more and the rest of the Mavs took up the scoring slack causing that half to go over.

I say this game goes over 200 because Garnett will be able to score more for Minn. Thanks for the pick Zap.

 

[Zapster]

Only good thing about tonight was logging in here after going 0-3 and not finding any flaming. Thanks guys. These games weren't even close and I'm off to a pitiful 0-3 start and minus 6.6 units.

I'm going to drink all the cleaning fluids under the sink, get some sleep, and see if I can get this turned around tomorrow.

 

[quantumleap]

I got your flaming for you. Try going 0-10 once. I did that last year during soccer and football season. I started thinking there was a conspiracy against me. You've got a ways to go to match that.

Just teasing you. It's the long-term that counts, not 3 games. You've got the right idea. Keep your picks coming. You'll turn it around.

 

[tatehill2000]

No worries Bro,,,, youll get em,,,, this is a Baad week for me,,, very very busy,,,,

Sunday or Monday we will be Jamming,, I got your call,, but today,, and the next 2 days,,, I am In the WEEDS,,,

I will call you when Im in Laughlin on sat
Tater

 

[Zapster]

Tuesday 11/23 Playzzz

Ok.....trying to bounce back from a VERY bad first post.

Record so far is 0-3 (Minus 6.6 Units)

We have a winner in the "name the 4 Unit play contest." The winner is.......Zapster !!

Here are tonight's playzzz.....:

Toronto OVER 204 (2 Unit Play)
Detroit OVER 192 (1 Unit Lean)
Atlanta UNDER 189 (4 Unit ZAPSTERATER)
Seattle UNDER 192 (1 Unit Lean)
New Jersey UNDER 180.5 (2 Unit Play)
Milwaukee OVER 199.5 (1 Unit Play)

Bonus question: "Who is August West?"

 

[Gary_Philly]

Best wishes Zapster! I know what you can do!

 

[TescoVee]

I am on your 4 unit play. Good luck

 

[quantumleap]

Ok.....trying to bounce back from a VERY bad first post.

Bonus question: "Who is August West?"

http://www.denverdead.com/

 

[Zapster]

GP.........great to "see" you again......hope you had a great "off season !!"

Tesco.....so am I sir......let's get 'um !!!

Quantum......im-PRESSIVE !!!! Lemme know if those guys come to SoCal !!

 

[TheOriginalBankIT]

tough 4 unit play, i was on it also..not looking good with 6 to go...i been cold lately in college so dont feel bad....:WTF:

 

[TheOriginalBankIT]

they are foulling with 3 minutes to go???? I have seen it all, someone knew something about the over....never seen this before....your system man, stick with it but if we fade it, you would be making mad cash, look at tater, he does it and wins....try it out....:WTF:

 

[TheOriginalBankIT]

ok officially over with minute to go **** this ****

 

[TheOriginalBankIT]

dont mind me, cost me 700, i am not upset at all...just going to give up on nba, too damn tough

 

[Zapster]

Nothing like an 0-7 start to......well I don't EVEN know how to finish that sentence.

This formula has consistently hit in the 55% range in the last two years. I could start to list the reasons some of these games went south, but I won't. That kind of stuff evens out in the long run anyway.

I am going to stick with this......and although it is true that fading these first 7 plays would have been huge, I don't recommend fading these picks as the weeks go by.

 

[Zapster]

Wednesday 11/24

Underwhelming 1-8 start.....down 14.5 units.

There are four games tonight that I am calling "leans." Just one unit plays. I am not backing off because of the first two days' results......there just isn't anything outstanding to hit tonight.

Still.....I am hoping for a 3-1 or a 4-0 to begin the counteroffensive.....so here they are........:

Cleveland OVER 189 1 Unit (Lean)
Miami UNDER 190 1 Unit (Lean)
Utah OVER 190 1 Unit (Lean)
Phoenix OVER 206 1 Unit (Lean)

 

[TescoVee]

dont sweat it Zap. it will turn around. just trust your skills.