Zapster's NBA Sides

[Zapster]

As if I didn't already have enough on my plate, I've been working on a way of calculating NBA sides. As a lot of you know I've been doing the totals for a couple of years......and until this season it has worked pretty well......and this season is FAR from over.

Anyway, this thread will be for sides. I want to keep the three things I do separate from each other (totals, halftime totals and sides) so I can measure the indivdual success (or lack thereof) of each.

So as not to get caught up in what the line is at different times, I will post my calculated results and the plays that would apply at the time of posting. My calculated number will appear on the left and the current line and any play will be in ( )'s

This is still very much in the experimental stage, so please don't go nuts on these. Also I do NOT take injuries and suspensions into account, so please keep that in mind if you do play these and feel free to adjust accordingly.

So.....without further ado......here are my numbers for Monday 12/6:

PHI -6.5 (-5) (1 Unit)
TOR -1 (no line available)
SA -17 (-11.5) (3 Units)
DET +3 (+4.5) (1 Unit)
ORL -1 (no line available)
MIA -2.5 (-2.5) (No Play)
BOS -2 (pk) (1 Unit)
LAC -12 (-11.5) (No Play)

So of the 8 games on the schedule, four are plays, two are too close to call and two have no lines as of now.

 

[Zapster]

There is now a line on the Orlando game and it is a 2 unit play.....:

ORL +3 (2 Units)

Note that the lines have moved from last night. Detroit at +4 would be a "no play." Boston at -2 would also be a "no play", as would Philly -6.

Here is the guideline I am using based on the difference between my calculated number and the line:

2-3 points (1 Unit)
3.5-4.5 points (2 Units)
5-6 points (3 Units)
6.5 or more points (4 Units)

If 4 or 5 falls between my number and the line, add 1 point to the difference. That is why PHI and DET originally were plays in the above post. The 1.5 differences became 2.5 differences.

 

[Zapster]

Line is up on the Nets-Raptors and it is a One Unit Play.

TOR +1.5 (1 Unit)

 

[Sports101]

Zap,

Good Luck tonight!

 

[Zapster]

Thanks Sports.....I will need it

Just to recap, here are all of tonight's plays. The lines shown are the best available lines at the time of the original posting of each play.

PHI -5 (1 Unit)
TOR +1.5 (1 Unit)
S.A. -11.5 (3 Units)
DET +4.5 (1 Unit)
ORL +3 (2 Units)
BOS pk (1 Unit)

Please note that I don't ever advocate "buying the hook." So if a line is not available for a listed game, skip the game. I plan to generally have my calcs posted by 11pm Pacific Time for the next day's games.....and as you can see from some of these numbers, the lines sometimes change quite a bit overnight.

Needless to say, all of this is meaningless if the games don't hit, so let's hope for a good "opening night" for this system.

 

[ChooseORLose]

Good luck tonight, Zap. I got San Ant tonight as play as well. May the Schwartz be with you.

 

[Gamehendge]

nj and toronto are 2 of the hardest teams to predict IMO. I do like the under in that one though.

 

[Zapster]

Tuesday 12/7 Numbers

Excitement when the biggie hit, but then the wheels fell off. So after day one, the record is 2 Wins 4 Losses (.333) Minus 1.5 Units.

Here are MY numbers for 12/7. THESE ARE NOT THE PLAYS. I will put the plays in a separate post. These are just my calculated projections for each game:

IND -1
CLE -12.5
MIN -9.5
MEM -2
HOU -7
PHO -18.5
SAC -13.5

This is a lot less messy than the way I posted yesterday. Plays will follow, but at this point the work is done and it is just a matter of getting your best number and using the table from the second post in this thread.

 

[Zapster]

Here is the first wave of Tuesday Plays based on the above numbers:

CLE -9 (2 Units)
MIN -6.5 (1 Unit)
NYK +5.5 (2 Units)
NO +10 (1 Unit)

 

[cashflowmatters]

Zap: You need contact Tater, stop the bleeding my friend, you 2 were $$ together last year. Your totals have been very shakey at best thus far and now you are throwing in sides as well, and not taking injuries or suspensions into the mix, they are both a very serious part of it and it needs to be put into the mix. I have always respected your opinions and appreciated your efforts but by not taking certain things like injuries and suspensions into your capping you are leaving yourself very vunerable in my opinion. Regards CASH

 

[Zapster]

CFM......

Tater and I found that when we agreed on plays they tended to hit at a pretty high percentage.....but while we did exchange theories, we didn't work together on our plays. We would just compare what each other came up with each day. He has been busy with his roulette and his fades and now he is in Hawaii. We do still talk and we are friends.....and we may even get the agreed plays going again, but for now we are each doing our own things.

As for injuries.....I have never taken them into account for two reasons: 1) Everything I do is numerically based and I have no way of objectively quantifying injuries....and 2) I find that except in exceptional cases, when a key player is injured, the rest of the team steps up and the injury has little effect on the outcome. Even if I am wrong about #2, I have found that these things even out over time, as the linesmakers often overreact to injuries. I know a lot of players think injuries are key and that is why I ponted out up front that the numbers don't account for them. People can take the numbers and adjust as they will.

I have always appreciated your supportive posts.....and I appreciate this one.....and I hope you continue to keep the faith. This will all turn around.

As for the sides......I have been very sucessful with a similar formula in the NFL this season. While I don't post my plays in the forum, I have been posting some of the plays in the Pinnacle & Dimeplayer Rx contests, with winning results. I put a bunch of time recently into devising a similar method for the NBA and this thread is the result of that.

Today was a losing day by 1/2 point (Toronto +1.5 lost by 2) . Let's give it a couple of weeks before writing it off.

 

[Zapster]

One more play before bedtime.....:

PHO -13.5 (3 Units)

 

[Zapster]

And now one last one to complete the day's activities.....:

IND +4 (3 Units)

Soooo.....six plays total today.....two one's, two two's and two three's. Now I'm off to finish up today's totals.

 

[Zapster]

Just to recap, here are all of tonight's plays. The lines shown are the best available lines at the time of the original posting of each play.

IND +4 (3 Units)
CLE -9 (2 Units)
MIN -6.5 (1 Unit)
NYK +5.5 (2 Units)
NO +10 (1 Unit)
PHO -13.5 (3 Units)

I know a lot of these lines have changed. IND for example is now +3. They are still a play at +3, but just 2 Units. Cleveland is also a play at the current -10.5 but just for one unit. Minnesota would now be a TWO unit play at -5.5. Knicks would go to THREE Units at +6 and Phoenix would drop to TWO units at the current -14.5

I only say all this to address Wilhelm's post from the other day about widely available lines. For recordkeeping purposes, all I can really do is track the plays at the best available line at the time of posting.....but if poeple are going to make wagers off these postings, it is important to adjust for the current numbers. This is easily done. I always post my calculated numbers and the second post in this thread gives a table that shows how many units to play depending on the difference between my calculated number and the line.

 

[cashflowmatters]

Zap: I know you said you don't take injuries or suspensions into account, but you must, examples today Indiana is playing without several players who played in 1st 11 games, so all the #'s you are using invilving them have to be inaccurate. On a team like Indiana I believe you should throw the game out untill they play another 10 games or so to achieve what you are looking for. Also in the Minn game Spreewell out, he is a big part of their offense. I guess is what I am trying to say is that you must take these facts into consideration before making them plays or system will always be questionable. I have been an avid follower of you and Tater and always believed you were on to something with NBA totals and that is my reason for concern, I believe you are now not using all info available when making your selections and thus the slump. I am with you for the long haul and believe in you and want the best for you but do believe you are short changing yourself by over looking different pieces of info available to you. Thanks CASH

 

[Zapster]

3-3 for the night, but the "biggies" both hit, so +1.5 Units brings the record for the first two days to....: 5 Wins 7 Losses (.417) and +0.0 Units.

Here are MY numbers for 12/8. THESE ARE NOT THE PLAYS. I will put the plays in a separate post. These are just my calculated projections for each game.

MIN -6.5
WAS -8
DET -11
MEM -7
MIA -1
NYK -4
CLE -8.5
SA -11
ORL -3.5
PHO -8

 

[Zapster]

Here is the first wave of plays for 12/8.....:

MIN -4.5 (1 Unit)
WAS -3.5 (3 Units)
DET -8.5 (1 Unit)
CLE -6.5 (1 Unit)
ORL -1 (1 Unit)

 

[Zapster]

Adding.......:

MIL +4.5 (2 Units)
NO +6 (1 Unit)
PHO -3 (3 Units)

 

[Zapster]

My 12/9 Numbers

2-5 (ignoring the tie) for the night and minus 6.8 Units brings the season total to 7 Wins 12 Losses (.368) and minus 6.8 Units.

Here are my calculated numbers for Thursday's games....:

SA -14
SEA -1.5
POR -3.5

And here are the plays.........:

SA -5 (4 Units)
SEA +6.5 (4 Units)
POR +5.5 (1 Unit)

Top two are by far the biggest differences I have seen between my calcs and the lines and thus the first time I have a 4 Unit play.......and there is not one, but two of them.

 

[Zapster]

CORRECTION !!!!

The one unit play should be BOS +5.5

As you can see the calc on the game has Portland winning by 3.5 points, so the play is Boston at +5.5

That line has actually gone up to 6.5 so it has moved against me, but the other two games have both moved in my favor (SA is up to 7 and SEA is down to 5.5).

At +6.5, Boston is actually now a TWO unit play, but for recordkeeping purposes I am tracking it at what the lines were at the time of posting. By the way, the other two games are STILL worth 4 units even at the current numbers.