At governing or at getting elected?
They will both fail at governing. Trump might be able to take out some low hanging fruit that your average inept politician couldn't, but he is going to have a tough time overall. Hillary is barely a political entity at this point so she will be awful. Although you could argue Trump's downside dwarfs the status quo in a lot of ways.
At getting elected it will come down to enthusiasm. Hillary has structural demographic advantages but Trump has a more rabid base. I think it is Trump's to lose but he really isn't that good at politics and expanding his base. If he was better at that then he would probably win.
I'd probably worry about the race a little less, and a little more about what ails this great nation.
They will both fail at governing. Trump might be able to take out some low hanging fruit that your average inept politician couldn't, but he is going to have a tough time overall. Hillary is barely a political entity at this point so she will be awful. Although you could argue Trump's downside dwarfs the status quo in a lot of ways.
At getting elected it will come down to enthusiasm. Hillary has structural demographic advantages but Trump has a more rabid base. I think it is Trump's to lose but he really isn't that good at politics and expanding his base. If he was better at that then he would probably win.
I'd probably worry about the race a little less, and a little more about what ails this great nation.
Reasons why Hillary might win:
1. Money. She has a lot of huge money, both from foreign and domestic entities. We will never again see a spending disparity the likes of what we are going to see in this election.
2. Organizational Differences. The Clinton campaign is far more organized and far more experienced at the process. Coupled with the extra $, it is much easier for Hillary to get her people to vote.
3. There are way more Democrats than Republicans.
4. Electoral Map. The electoral map is skewed in such a way that the Republicans are operating at a demographic disadvantage at the beginning of the election process. As such, Republicans always are in the position of having to convert democrats (See Reagan democrats) in order to win. Democrat candidates on the other hand, just need to make pars on the back 9 to maintain the lead.
5. Democrats are very good at identity politics and Republicans are very bad at identity politics. Clinton will probably get 90% of the black vote. It won't be in the same numbers as the Obama years, both because things are worse for blacks now after Obama and because she isn't the first black President. In addition the DNC has been masterful in obtaining the latino vote despite not sharing many values with their culture.
6. Trump factor. Trump is a Republican name only and often even refers to Republicans as a group he is not part of. This is clearly not palatable to many Republicans who view a Trump victory as another massive step towards the left. It would be redefining the Republican party in a way that would be far more inclusive but also far less principled. Idealogues may stay at home. In addition, he has horrible unfavorable numbers anyway.
7. I am not saying this has any basis in fact, but you have to consider the possibility of a rigged election given what we know about big money supporting Hillary from both sides of the aisle in an attempt to maintain the status quo and given what we know about Clinton ethics and craving for power.
8. She is a woman and women don't like Trump.
Why Trump might win
1. Hillary is the most unelectable candidate in history. She has more scandals and crime under her belt than Al Capone and Gotti combined. There are going to be a lot of people with a conscience that just cannot pull that lever.
2. Hillary is uninspiring/boring. If you look back on the past elections, the more inspiring candidate has won repeatedly with the exception of Bush1. Reagan's Presidency was such a success that Bush1 got elected on Reagan coattails. But he was completely uninspiring/boring and lost to a more inspirational and likable Clinton. Then boring Gore lost to a more inspirational Bush2 despite the Clinton presidency being one most people prospered during. Then Obama was probably the most inspirational of the lot and won consecutive terms. I don't think McCain was boring or not inspirational but he wasn't on the same level as Obama and let's face it, people were still rebelling against the Bush2 Presidency. Trump is far more inspirational to his voting base.
3. Political Correctness Pendulum. America is currently in the process of rejecting the current levels of political correctness in this country.
4. Trump is drawing in voters who normally don't vote.
5. Trump is a master at media manipulation without spending $.
6. Clinton foreign policy blunders. Normally you could crush an opponent like D Trump with someone as experienced as Hillary is in foreign policy. She is WAYYYY more knowledgeable about foreign (and domestic) policy than Trump. She could expose him over and over again as someone who doesn't know a lot. The problem is that all of her decisions have been huge mistakes. You cannot play the experience card when you screwed up Syria, libya, egypt, iran, cuba, iraq, afghanistan etc. etc.
7. If there is one thing that Americans agree upon across party aisles it is immigration and border control. Unfortunately, the politicians have done nothing about it because they all get huge checks from big business who benefit so greatly from the undocumented labor. Americans believe Trump will do more, even if he won't be building a big wall with the letter "T" at the top. In addition, she is for letting in a ton of Muslim refugees and Americans don't want it.
8. Inability of Democrats to denounce hate groups. Supporting BLM while backhanding cops just isn't going to fly with Americans. Refusing to call terrorists radical islamic terrorists is not just peculiar but stupid.
9. Latest wikileaks are going to make a lot of young democrats feel disenfranchised and they may not vote for Hillary. some may even switch to Trump.
10. Americans are ready for someone not part of the establishment to win.
1. Money. She has a lot of huge money, both from foreign and domestic entities. We will never again see a spending disparity the likes of what we are going to see in this election.
2. Organizational Differences. The Clinton campaign is far more organized and far more experienced at the process. Coupled with the extra $, it is much easier for Hillary to get her people to vote.
3. There are way more Democrats than Republicans.
4. Electoral Map. The electoral map is skewed in such a way that the Republicans are operating at a demographic disadvantage at the beginning of the election process. As such, Republicans always are in the position of having to convert democrats (See Reagan democrats) in order to win. Democrat candidates on the other hand, just need to make pars on the back 9 to maintain the lead.
5. Democrats are very good at identity politics and Republicans are very bad at identity politics. Clinton will probably get 90% of the black vote. It won't be in the same numbers as the Obama years, both because things are worse for blacks now after Obama and because she isn't the first black President. In addition the DNC has been masterful in obtaining the latino vote despite not sharing many values with their culture.
6. Trump factor. Trump is a Republican name only and often even refers to Republicans as a group he is not part of. This is clearly not palatable to many Republicans who view a Trump victory as another massive step towards the left. It would be redefining the Republican party in a way that would be far more inclusive but also far less principled. Idealogues may stay at home. In addition, he has horrible unfavorable numbers anyway.
7. I am not saying this has any basis in fact, but you have to consider the possibility of a rigged election given what we know about big money supporting Hillary from both sides of the aisle in an attempt to maintain the status quo and given what we know about Clinton ethics and craving for power.
8. She is a woman and women don't like Trump.
Why Trump might win
1. Hillary is the most unelectable candidate in history. She has more scandals and crime under her belt than Al Capone and Gotti combined. There are going to be a lot of people with a conscience that just cannot pull that lever.
2. Hillary is uninspiring/boring. If you look back on the past elections, the more inspiring candidate has won repeatedly with the exception of Bush1. Reagan's Presidency was such a success that Bush1 got elected on Reagan coattails. But he was completely uninspiring/boring and lost to a more inspirational and likable Clinton. Then boring Gore lost to a more inspirational Bush2 despite the Clinton presidency being one most people prospered during. Then Obama was probably the most inspirational of the lot and won consecutive terms. I don't think McCain was boring or not inspirational but he wasn't on the same level as Obama and let's face it, people were still rebelling against the Bush2 Presidency. Trump is far more inspirational to his voting base.
3. Political Correctness Pendulum. America is currently in the process of rejecting the current levels of political correctness in this country.
4. Trump is drawing in voters who normally don't vote.
5. Trump is a master at media manipulation without spending $.
6. Clinton foreign policy blunders. Normally you could crush an opponent like D Trump with someone as experienced as Hillary is in foreign policy. She is WAYYYY more knowledgeable about foreign (and domestic) policy than Trump. She could expose him over and over again as someone who doesn't know a lot. The problem is that all of her decisions have been huge mistakes. You cannot play the experience card when you screwed up Syria, libya, egypt, iran, cuba, iraq, afghanistan etc. etc.
7. If there is one thing that Americans agree upon across party aisles it is immigration and border control. Unfortunately, the politicians have done nothing about it because they all get huge checks from big business who benefit so greatly from the undocumented labor. Americans believe Trump will do more, even if he won't be building a big wall with the letter "T" at the top. In addition, she is for letting in a ton of Muslim refugees and Americans don't want it.
8. Inability of Democrats to denounce hate groups. Supporting BLM while backhanding cops just isn't going to fly with Americans. Refusing to call terrorists radical islamic terrorists is not just peculiar but stupid.
9. Latest wikileaks are going to make a lot of young democrats feel disenfranchised and they may not vote for Hillary. some may even switch to Trump.
10. Americans are ready for someone not part of the establishment to win.
Just some thoughts on electoral math.
FL - Heavy part of the hispanic population is Cuban, which vote R consistently and will back him. Obama won FL by 1%, I think Trump takes this.
OH - Big "blue-collar" worker state which Trump does great with and their latino population is only like 3 or 4%.
I would advise prop betting those two states if you think Trump has any chance to win. If he loses those two states then he is going to get absolutely crushed. I see him winning both of them.
MI was a huge Obama victory, can Trump close that gap? I really don't know but Romney would seem to be pretty uninspiring to that crowd and Hillary lost MI to Bernie Sanders. If any state was going to completely flip its lid on the gridlocked electoral math and status quo that we're accustomed to, it is MI isn't it?
Those 3 states and maintaining Romney states would give him 269 EC's. Just needs 1 more state. I like his chances in NH. I've gone up there to visit relatives over the summer and I see wayy more Trump signs than Hillary (Maybe some NH posters can comment on that state and what the enthusiasm is like there?) It is a very small minority state, working class, pretty liberal overall. Trump crushed the primary there and obviously he spent a ton of time there.
So I think that is probably the easiest pathway/blueprint for him.
Only state I see Trump struggling to maintain is NC. I know they say the Mormons in Utah don't like him but I don't think it is enough. Arizona I'd imagine he wins as well.
NC is a tough 1. Romney barely won it and the economy is pretty good there by most metrics. Especially in Charlotte, a growing metro city that is fairly democrat/young/liberal. Industries moving there, etc..
FL - Heavy part of the hispanic population is Cuban, which vote R consistently and will back him. Obama won FL by 1%, I think Trump takes this.
OH - Big "blue-collar" worker state which Trump does great with and their latino population is only like 3 or 4%.
I would advise prop betting those two states if you think Trump has any chance to win. If he loses those two states then he is going to get absolutely crushed. I see him winning both of them.
MI was a huge Obama victory, can Trump close that gap? I really don't know but Romney would seem to be pretty uninspiring to that crowd and Hillary lost MI to Bernie Sanders. If any state was going to completely flip its lid on the gridlocked electoral math and status quo that we're accustomed to, it is MI isn't it?
Those 3 states and maintaining Romney states would give him 269 EC's. Just needs 1 more state. I like his chances in NH. I've gone up there to visit relatives over the summer and I see wayy more Trump signs than Hillary (Maybe some NH posters can comment on that state and what the enthusiasm is like there?) It is a very small minority state, working class, pretty liberal overall. Trump crushed the primary there and obviously he spent a ton of time there.
So I think that is probably the easiest pathway/blueprint for him.
Only state I see Trump struggling to maintain is NC. I know they say the Mormons in Utah don't like him but I don't think it is enough. Arizona I'd imagine he wins as well.
NC is a tough 1. Romney barely won it and the economy is pretty good there by most metrics. Especially in Charlotte, a growing metro city that is fairly democrat/young/liberal. Industries moving there, etc..
Latest polls that i saw
Mitchell's Research - Michigan - Clinton +6.
-Further we get from Flint incident the worse for Hillary though? She played well to that issue.
- Large muslim population, slightly higher black population for one side, low hispanic population favors the other side.
Suffolk - Ohio - Tie, Clinton +4 with Johnson included in polling.
-Kasich support would have secured the State for Trump.
WMUR/UNH - New Hampshire - Clinton +2, Tie with Johnson included in polling.
-Good call on this. NH was completely off my radar and I just assumed Clinton had it.
NBC/WSJ/Marist - Florida - Clinton +5 *includes Johnson
-Is there any path for Trump that does not include Florida?
Mitchell's Research - Michigan - Clinton +6.
-Further we get from Flint incident the worse for Hillary though? She played well to that issue.
- Large muslim population, slightly higher black population for one side, low hispanic population favors the other side.
Suffolk - Ohio - Tie, Clinton +4 with Johnson included in polling.
-Kasich support would have secured the State for Trump.
WMUR/UNH - New Hampshire - Clinton +2, Tie with Johnson included in polling.
-Good call on this. NH was completely off my radar and I just assumed Clinton had it.
NBC/WSJ/Marist - Florida - Clinton +5 *includes Johnson
-Is there any path for Trump that does not include Florida?
It is tough to say how the Johnson stuff shakes out. Some of that is just people expressing dissatisfaction with both candidates. Not sure he has any real support. A few polls have listed the 3rd option as meteor hitting the earth and it has done as well as Johnson. Obviously if he could get in the debates then that brings up a whole different discussion, but that is probably better left until it happens.
Trump must win FL to win, I don't see that being a problem. I know the polls have Hillary now but it seems like those polls look for a broad spectrum of voters, but the key to Trump victory is entirely different than the typical gameplan in a national election. He is trying to get a huge turnout of working class white voters to go for him. The polls just simply can't weight those properly right now I don't think. He has business roots there, Rick Scott will campaign for him.
Trump's main economic proposal is revamping and/or gutting trade agreements, this should play well in OH/MI. And he will probably be there hosting huge crowds all through Sept and Oct.
There just hasn't really been a candidate with that type of populism in recent memory as 1 of the main 2 nominees, it could create a tsunami of support.
Trump must win FL to win, I don't see that being a problem. I know the polls have Hillary now but it seems like those polls look for a broad spectrum of voters, but the key to Trump victory is entirely different than the typical gameplan in a national election. He is trying to get a huge turnout of working class white voters to go for him. The polls just simply can't weight those properly right now I don't think. He has business roots there, Rick Scott will campaign for him.
Trump's main economic proposal is revamping and/or gutting trade agreements, this should play well in OH/MI. And he will probably be there hosting huge crowds all through Sept and Oct.
There just hasn't really been a candidate with that type of populism in recent memory as 1 of the main 2 nominees, it could create a tsunami of support.
This is the shit I am talking about when it comes to Trump just being a dumbass as a politician as far as outreach goes. Obviously he isn't going to just get all Bernie voters but some of them are truly pissed right now and probably not voting for the Hillary. They are anti-establishment and with the proper message they could be had. So what does Trump do? He disses Bernie on twitter. I understand he has done fine so far, but it seems like he just makes things way harder than they need to be.
- Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 4h4 hours ago</small>
Sorry folks, but Bernie Sanders is exhausted, just can't go on any longer. He is trying to dismiss the new e-mails and DNC disrespect. SAD!
5,316 retweets15,723 likes
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Reply
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Retweet
5.3K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
Like
16K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">More
</button>
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump <small class="time" style="font-size: 13px; color: rgb(136, 153, 166);"> 4h4 hours ago</small>
There is no longer a Bernie Sanders "political revolution." He is turning out to be a weak and somewhat pathetic figure,wants it all to end!
5,131 retweets14,890 likes
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Reply
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Retweet
5.1K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
Like
15K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">More
</button>
This is the shit I am talking about when it comes to Trump just being a dumbass as a politician as far as outreach goes. Obviously he isn't going to just get all Bernie voters but some of them are truly pissed right now and probably not voting for the Hillary. They are anti-establishment and with the proper message they could be had. So what does Trump do? He disses Bernie on twitter. I understand he has done fine so far, but it seems like he just makes things way harder than they need to be.
Sorry folks, but Bernie Sanders is exhausted, just can't go on any longer. He is trying to dismiss the new e-mails and DNC disrespect. SAD!
5,316 retweets15,723 likes
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Reply
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Retweet
5.3K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
Like
16K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">More
</button>
There is no longer a Bernie Sanders "political revolution." He is turning out to be a weak and somewhat pathetic figure,wants it all to end!
5,131 retweets14,890 likes
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Reply
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Retweet
5.1K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
Like
15K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">More
</button>
Absolutely....his staff must be going nuts....
I believe that Trump could steal The Black Vote from Hillary, at this moment in time that is. DNC Gathering yet to play out + Debates yet to unfold but I hope there will be a focused attempt by The Trump Campaign on capturing as much of The Black Vote as possible as to take as much of this from Hillary would be Large, has the potential to decrease her chances of winning, significantly.
Judging from Kasich's attitude as the convention was going on seems almost certain that Trump did not give Kasich the consideration for VP that he felt he deserved and may very well be correct in feeling.
Man who had Declined, IMO, had Rejected the offer would have been much less hostile that was Kasich.
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
<tbody>
</tbody>All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Clinton (D) | Trump (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 7/8 - 7/23 | -- | -- | 44.6 | 42.7 | Clinton +1.9 |
| LA Times/USC | 7/17 - 7/23 | 2083 LV | -- | 42 | 45 | Trump +3 |
| Gravis | 7/21 - 7/22 | 3462 RV | 1.7 | 49 | 51 | Trump +2 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 7/16 - 7/20 | 1232 RV | 3.2 | 40 | 36 | Clinton +4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 7/18 - 7/19 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 42 | 43 | Trump +1 |
| Economist/YouGov | 7/15 - 7/17 | 925 RV | 4.5 | 45 | 41 | Clinton +4 |
| NBC News/SM | 7/11 - 7/17 | 9436 RV | 1.4 | 46 | 45 | Clinton +1 |
| CNN/ORC | 7/13 - 7/16 | 872 RV | 3.5 | 49 | 42 | Clinton +7 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 7/11 - 7/14 | 816 RV | 4.0 | 47 | 43 | Clinton +4 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 7/9 - 7/13 | 1000 RV | 3.1 | 46 | 41 | Clinton +5 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 7/8 - 7/12 | 1358 RV | 3.0 | 40 | 40 | [COLOR= ]Tie [/COLOR] |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Funny I say in a post that he isnt good at expanding his base, like 20 minutes later he does something stupid when he has the potential to expand his base.
As far as Kasich, he probably just doesn't like Trump. I know that is hard for people to fathom, but I'm sure most people who have come across Trump over the last year don't like him much. Not to mention the vast policy differences.
I'm sure Trump wanted Kasich as the swing state/favorability/experience factors are all no brainers for Trump.
As far as Kasich, he probably just doesn't like Trump. I know that is hard for people to fathom, but I'm sure most people who have come across Trump over the last year don't like him much. Not to mention the vast policy differences.
I'm sure Trump wanted Kasich as the swing state/favorability/experience factors are all no brainers for Trump.
This is the shit I am talking about when it comes to Trump just being a dumbass as a politician as far as outreach goes. Obviously he isn't going to just get all Bernie voters but some of them are truly pissed right now and probably not voting for the Hillary. They are anti-establishment and with the proper message they could be had. So what does Trump do? He disses Bernie on twitter. I understand he has done fine so far, but it seems like he just makes things way harder than they need to be.
Sorry folks, but Bernie Sanders is exhausted, just can't go on any longer. He is trying to dismiss the new e-mails and DNC disrespect. SAD!
5,316 retweets15,723 likes
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Reply
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Retweet
5.3K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
Like
16K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">More
</button>
There is no longer a Bernie Sanders "political revolution." He is turning out to be a weak and somewhat pathetic figure,wants it all to end!
5,131 retweets14,890 likes
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover js-actionButton js-actionReply" data-modal="ProfileTweet-reply" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Reply
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionRetweet" data-modal="ProfileTweet-retweet" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">Retweet
5.1K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton js-actionButton js-actionFavorite" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">
Like
15K
</button>
<button class="ProfileTweet-actionButton u-textUserColorHover dropdown-toggle js-dropdown-toggle" type="button" style="color: rgb(170, 184, 194); font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 16px; line-height: 1; font-family: inherit; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; cursor: pointer; border: 0px; padding: 0px 2px; position: relative; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-size: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial;">More
</button>
I think many of the Sanders supports are very upset at the fact that sanders is not fighting Clinton.
I don't think that statement hurts him with former sanders supporters. I would say most sanders supporters agree with trump on that statement .
It kinda reminds me of when tom benson the saints owner just bent over and took his punishment for bounty gate with no fight.
