The NFL Draft is by far my best event in capping. I live, eat, breathe the NFL Draft. It's all I have had to look forward to as a Lions fan. Here are my picks. I have included NO RISK picks for those who are willing to blindly follow a draft-nik.
It's long, so right here I'll save you some time and list "high reward" plays right here where I believe you can turn $20 into $100 or more.
Intertops has two prop bets with Louis Delmas +425 and Donald Brown +350 to be drafted ahead of the other players in the prop. I really like these. Explanations are below. Unfortunately you can't parlay.
Bodog allows you to parlay! That is amazing, considering the draft IS correlated. My funds will be there, outside of the two bets I place at Intertops and a few bets at Sportsbook that I like and has a good enough line.
The parlay I am thinking of is Jason Smith -280ish to go #2, Andre Smith -110 to go #6, and Jeremy Maclin +120 to go #7. Every mock draft has this scenario happening. There are two other bets you can add as well, Knowshon Moreno +150 ahead of Beanie Wells (fairly certain that will happen) and Pat White -150 to be drafted on the first day. Parlay what you want, here's the selections!
Note: I will also try and be here during the draft. And if these selections suck, this is pretty much an epic fail considering the time invested in this.
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Intertops
Limit: $110/bet
Which of the following defensive backs will be drafted first?
Sean Smith +350
Louis Delmas +425
Patrick Chung +425
DJ Moore +450
William Moore +450
Simply look at player rankings. Delmas is the best safety in the draft (over Chung and William Moore) and way ahead of Smith and DJ Moore in overall rankings. He's even going in Nolan Nawrocki's first round. I look at 5 people's Top 100 boards (Rick Gosselin, Nolan Nawrocki, Gil Brandt, Bob McGinn, and Mike Mayock who doesn't have his available) and here's where they have these guys rated:
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="244" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="140"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="7" width="64"> <tbody align="left"><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" height="20">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">GOS</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">PFW</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">BOB</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">GIL</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Louis Delmas</td> <td>S </td> <td>Western Michigan</td> <td>35</td> <td>32</td> <td>34</td> <td>45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Patrick Chung</td> <td>S </td> <td>Oregon</td> <td>51</td> <td>40</td> <td>70</td> <td>45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">William Moore</td> <td>S </td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>47</td> <td>52</td> <td>60</td> <td>55.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Sean Smith</td> <td>CB </td> <td>Utah</td> <td>48</td> <td>62</td> <td>56</td> <td>65.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">D.J. Moore </td> <td>CB </td> <td colspan="2" style="">Vanderbilt </td> <td>94</td> <td>81</td> <td>45.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
The other prop that has caught my attention at Intertops is this one:
Which of the following Big East/ACC players will be drafted first?
Donald Brown +325
Connor Barwin +400
Kenny Britt +400
Clint Sintim +500
Ron Brace +500
Brown is listed as a first round pick in every mock draft I'm tracking (Gosselin, Nawrocki, McGinn, even Kiper and McShay). Barwin isn't listed in any. Britt is only listed by the ESPN guys, not the draft experts talking to scouts and other sources. Nawrocki has Sintim behind Brown, although this isn't his final mock. Brace is nowhere to be found, he might not go first day.
Bottom line is, Brown is a lock for a late first round pick, most likely destination Arizona. Britt is the only other guy who I see as a possible first rounder, but I wouldn't bet on that. Here's the rankings of the 5 players listed above:
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="307" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="140"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="7" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left" height="20">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">GOS</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">PFW</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">BOB</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">GIL</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Donald Brown</td> <td align="left">HB </td> <td align="left">Connecticut</td> <td align="left">30</td> <td align="left">30</td> <td align="left">16</td> <td align="left">35.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Kenny Britt</td> <td align="left">WR </td> <td align="left">Rutgers</td> <td align="left">38</td> <td align="left">46</td> <td align="left">46</td> <td align="left">35.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Clint Sintim</td> <td align="left">OLB </td> <td align="left">Virginia</td> <td align="left">44</td> <td align="left">31</td> <td align="left">33</td> <td align="left">45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Connor Barwin</td> <td align="left">DE </td> <td align="left">Cincinnati</td> <td align="left">40</td> <td align="left">65</td> <td align="left">39</td> <td align="left">45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Ron Brace</td> <td align="left">DT </td> <td align="left">Boston College</td> <td align="left">58</td> <td align="left">61</td> <td align="left">63</td> <td align="left">65.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Bodog.com
Limit: unknownI need to deposit so I can find out limits. Bodog is the place to be for the NFL Draft. In-game betting and..... drumroll please.... YOU CAN PARLAY NFL DRAFT PROPS AT THIS BOOK!
Here's 5 bets listed. I will parlay my 4 wagers at this book with Jason Smith 20/57 to go 2nd overall.
RISK FREE SELECTION
Jason Smith 20/57 to go 2nd overall
This one is a slam dunk people. Every mock draft has this one listed. Take this bet and parlay it with all the other wagers you make at this book to increase your winnings.
VERY LOW RISK SELECTIONS
Andre Smith 10/11 to go 6th overall
As with Jason Smith, every mock has Andre Smith going 6th. Monroe is perceived to be the higher rated tackle, and they should both be available, however experts are predicting that he's the preferred player to Monroe. The books have had this line low before the mocks started putting him 6th, it's as if they knew something. Bengals will be selecting a OT here and they want Smith, who will be available.
Jeremy Maclin 5/4 to go 7th overall
Gosselin, Nawrocki, and McGinn all have Maclin going 7th. I honestly believe they prefer Maclin's speed over Crabtree, as Davis loves speed and has shown this in his draft history. Crabtree could go to Seattle at #4, or Cleveland at #5, so this could be a moot point. This is a pick I thought would happen for a while now. I don't see Maclin going ahead of this pick under any scenario.
SMALL RISK SELECTIONS
Pat White -150 to be drafted in the 2nd round
White is listed as the 56th best player by Gosselin, 57th by Nawrocki, 61st by McGinn, and in the 51-60 tier by Brandt. He's a mid-late 2nd round pick according to all these experts. This is a bit risky, but I have found that 2nd and 3rd round QBs tend to get picked higher than they should. See John Beck, Kellen Clemens, Matt Schaub. He's the only QB option in the second round and shouldn't fall past RD 2. However, ranking 61st, 57th, and 56th, you're only giving a yourself a cushion of 3-8 picks.
Knowshon Moreno +150 to be drafted ahead of Beanie Wells
Every mock draft has Moreno being selected ahead of Beanie, except for the ESPN guys. Similar to the Maclin play, I'll fade ESPN any day for the other guys who have been more accurate EVERY year. Every top 100 board has Moreno ranked ahead of Beanie (slightly) with the exception of Brandt who is the least accurate of the 4 boards listed and came out with his top 100 2 weeks before the draft (unlike everyone else who did it today). This i risky (hence why it is +150) because the two are seen as 1a and 1b for the RB rankings, however Moreno is the A and I think he'll be drafted first, as does Gosselin, Nawrocki, and McGinn. Mayock likes him too, has him as the 3rd best player in the draft and has Beanie out of his top 20. I think Moreno last no longer than the Jets at 17, Wells should be later.
NOTE: THE LATE PARTS OF THE FIRST ROUND FREQUENTLY HAVE LOTS OF TRADES. BET AT YOUR OWN RISK. I AM NOT BETTING THESE, THEY ARE HERE FOR YOUR OWN INFORMATION.
17th pick to be an offensive player -220
The Jets select at 17 and every mock draft listed has them with an offensive player. They are talking about trading up for Sanchez which could screw this up though. Could be Moreno or a WR (Heyward-Bey/Harvin) here.
18th pick to be a defensive player -160
Denver picks at 18 and all mocks have them going defense here. Linebackers such as Matthews, Cushing would fit here, or a defensive lineman (Ayers, Jerry) make sense.
22nd pick to be an offensive player -125
Got to think Minnesota is thinking about a WR, potentially Harvin. Every mock has them going offense here with 4/5 taking a WR. This should be Harvin or Heyward-Bey.
23rd pick to be a defensive player -115
New England isn't a very easy team to figure out when it comes to the draft. However, all mocks have them going defense and I follow experts opinions over the oddsmakers.
24th pick to be a defensive player -165
Atlanta selects here, they're looking at CB or rush end, Vontae Davis, Darius Butler are fits here as does someone like Ayers. All mocks have them taking a defensive player.
25th pick to be a defensive player -110
Parcells and Miami select here, Parcells has traditionally NEVER chose offense in the first round and I don't expect this year to be any different. All mocks have them going CB/DE. Should be Davis or Butler at CB, or Ayers at rush DE. English's name might be mentioned here and in Atlanta/NE.
28th pick to be an offensive player -115
This is Buffalo's 2nd pick. There are rumors of them trading this one so they can move up and get Andre Smith, however if they keep it they will likely fill the offensive line need, where all mocks have them addressing this. Eben Britton is the guy that is mentioned a lot here to replace Jason Peters. They might go Oher at 11 and then take the DE (English/Ayers) here, but I have thought they would go Maybin or Orakpo at 11 (Maybin the name heard frequently) and then Britton at 28.
Sportsbook.com
Limit: $300/bet
PLUS MONEY SELECTIONS
Wide receivers taken in round one UNDER 6 (+110)
Take this plus money to the BANK. Maclin and Crabtree are locks. Heyward-Bey and Pettigrew should be in. However, outside of that, you've got Harvin, and that's it. Britt/Robiskie/Nicks should all be in the 2nd. Absolute worst case scenario you have Britt or Robiskie sneaking in to the Giants or Colts and this bet pushes.
Jeremy Maclin UNDER 7.5 (+110)
He should be going to Oakland. This is better odds than Bodog. I think they prefer him to Crabtree, if that scenario presents itself. Every mock has him going 7th.
B.J. Raji OVER 8.5 (+130)
Defensive tackles fall EVERY year. Glenn Dorsey. Haloti Ngata. Vince Wilfork. Raji is being projected in the top 8 by one expert, McGinn. It's worth the risk at +130 as he'll go to Green Bay or Denver. I don't see Cleveland taking him, that's a reach and they already have Shaun Rogers.
Knowshon Moreno +150 to be drafted ahead of Beanie Wells
Same prop as on Bodog.
Glen Coffee drafted BEFORE Javon Ringer (EVEN) NO RISK
What a JOKE this line is. Coffee is in both Gosselin's (72nd) and Nawrocki's (81st) top 100. McGinn has Coffee 30 spots ahead of Ringer. I mean really? Ringer? He's a scat back with no speed. Them making him the dog is laughable.
MEDIUM JUICE SELECTIONS (0 TO -199)
Andre Smith UNDER 6.5 (-115)
He's going 6th overall in every mock draft. This is the same bet that was on Bodog.
James Laurinaitis will NOT be selected in the first round (-120)
Only one mock (Nawrocki, and that's not his final mock) has him in the first round. Gosselin doesn't. McGinn doesn't. Even Kiper doesn't.He's a RD 2 guy, we often see LBs fall (Karlos Dansby, DeMeco Ryans, Boss Bailey, Teddy Lehman, Dan Connor, etc.).
Aaron Maybin drafted BEFORE Robert Ayers (-130)
Ayers is ranked 27th and 23rd on the big boards. Maybin is a legitimate top 15 talent, ranking 12th and 10th. No doubt will he go ahead of him, he's the better DE. Don't be fooled by the ESPN hype on Ayers' workout. All other mocks have Maybin in the teens, Ayers in the late first.
Running backs taken in round one OVER 2.5 (-140)
Wells and Moreno are locks. You're betting on Donald Brown. Brown will be taken late, probably to Arizona. This should cash, as every mock has Brown in the first round. Some have him in mid round 1.
Percy Harvin drafted BEFORE Hakeem Nicks (-150) NO RISK
Wow. What the hell are people seeing in Hakeem Nicks? Harvin is ranked significantly higher. He's actually being projected in the first round.Brian Cushing to be drafted before Rey Maualuga (-150) NO RISK
No chance Rey goes ahead of Brian. Cushing is going ahead of him in every mock draft. Cushing's lowest position (18th) is equal to Maualuga's highest position (18th).
Offensive linemen in the first round UNDER 6.5 (-160) NO RISK
You've got Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, and Michael Oher all locks in the top 15. Then you have possibly 2 other picks in the late first round, with Buffalo looking OL (Eben Britton) and potentially Pittsburgh looking OL (Max Unger). These teams aren't locks to take OL especially Buffalo who could go OL at 11. I don't see 7 being taken, not under any scenario.
Beanie Wells OVER 14.5 (-170)
TheabsoluteONLY place for him above 14.5 is the Saints, and they're heading towards a defensive player (Malcolm Jenkins if he is there, if not a LB or DL.)
B.J. Raji -170 to be drafted before Brian Orakpo
Raji is ahead of Orakpo in EVERY mock draft. McGinn and Nawrocki have Orakpo going to Washington at 13. Gosselin has him going even lower. Raji is a top 12 pick in every mock.Oddly enough, neither Gosselin, McGinn, or Nawrocki has Orakpo going earlier than 13th.
LARGE JUICE SELECTIONS (-200 OR HIGHER)
Hakeem Nicks OVER 29.5 (-200) NO RISK
FREEEEEEEE MONEY!!! You've got to be kidding me. This guy is a mid second rounder. No one has him in the first round. Not when you run a 4.6.
Brandon Pettigrew drafted before Kenny Britt (-200) NO RISK
Britt isn't a first round pick. Pettigrew is. No further explanation needed.
Rey Maualuga OVER 16.5 (-200)
This guy is going to Baltimore at 26 in 2 mocks, and then is in Denver and Detroit in other ones at 18 and 20. The only risk in him going 16th is that Charger fans want him. The fans do, management knows it's a reach. Much better talent is available, he's the 3rd best LB on his team.
Vontae Davis WILL BE selected in the first round (-250) NO RISK
He's in everyone's mock at the end of the first round. This will cash. He might surprise a few with how high he goes, great measurables at a key position.
Clay Matthews -300 to be drafted before James Laurinaitis NO RISK
Why does Vegas even offer this prop bet? Do they expect anyone to take Laurinaitis here? He probably won't even go first round.
Brian Robiskie will NOT be selected in the first round (-300)
He's a mid second round talent. No one has him in the first round.The only risk is the Colts or Giants reaching for him. Don't see it.
Number of quarterbacks taken in the first round OVER 2.5 (-400) NO RISK
This is a lock. Freeman is a first round pick. Lot of juice though.
Clay Matthews WILL be selected in the first round (-400) NO RISK
Free money. May be the first LB off the board.
Josh Freeman WILL be selected in the first round (-450) NO RISK
See above explanations. This is worse odds than the first bet at (-400) though of 3 QBs in the first round.
Jason Smith 2nd overall pick -500 NO RISK
You can get better odds on Bodog, and parlay it with other bets
NOTE: THE SECOND ROUND OFTEN HAS SURPRISES AND IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THAN THE FIRST ROUND. BET AT YOUR OWN RISK
Pat White WILL be drafted on the first day (-150)
Same as Bodog.
John Parker Wilson will NOT be selected on the first day (-600) NO RISK
Come on. Ignore the warning for this one.
Shonn Greene WILL be selected on the first day (EVEN)
Gosselin has him at 52nd, Nawrocki 55th, and McGinn 50th. He should be a mid-late 2nd round pick.
Duke Robinson will NOT be selected on the first day (-160)
Oklahoma linemen always find a way to be overrated and fall. The last legitimate Oklahoma lineman I remember was Davin Joseph. No one has this guy in the top 64. Gosselin has him 92nd. If that's not enough to convince you Nawrocki has him 75th and McGinn 79th.
LeSean McCoy WILL be selected on the first day (-300)
Not great odds like Greene was getting (a comparable back in terms of value), but he's safely in the first day. Gosselin has him 39th, that's almost a first rounder. Nawrocki has him 58th (hater) and McGinn 41st.
It's long, so right here I'll save you some time and list "high reward" plays right here where I believe you can turn $20 into $100 or more.
Intertops has two prop bets with Louis Delmas +425 and Donald Brown +350 to be drafted ahead of the other players in the prop. I really like these. Explanations are below. Unfortunately you can't parlay.
Bodog allows you to parlay! That is amazing, considering the draft IS correlated. My funds will be there, outside of the two bets I place at Intertops and a few bets at Sportsbook that I like and has a good enough line.
The parlay I am thinking of is Jason Smith -280ish to go #2, Andre Smith -110 to go #6, and Jeremy Maclin +120 to go #7. Every mock draft has this scenario happening. There are two other bets you can add as well, Knowshon Moreno +150 ahead of Beanie Wells (fairly certain that will happen) and Pat White -150 to be drafted on the first day. Parlay what you want, here's the selections!
Note: I will also try and be here during the draft. And if these selections suck, this is pretty much an epic fail considering the time invested in this.
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Intertops
Limit: $110/bet
Which of the following defensive backs will be drafted first?
Sean Smith +350
Louis Delmas +425
Patrick Chung +425
DJ Moore +450
William Moore +450
Simply look at player rankings. Delmas is the best safety in the draft (over Chung and William Moore) and way ahead of Smith and DJ Moore in overall rankings. He's even going in Nolan Nawrocki's first round. I look at 5 people's Top 100 boards (Rick Gosselin, Nolan Nawrocki, Gil Brandt, Bob McGinn, and Mike Mayock who doesn't have his available) and here's where they have these guys rated:
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="244" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="140"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="7" width="64"> <tbody align="left"><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" height="20">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">GOS</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">PFW</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">BOB</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64">GIL</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Louis Delmas</td> <td>S </td> <td>Western Michigan</td> <td>35</td> <td>32</td> <td>34</td> <td>45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Patrick Chung</td> <td>S </td> <td>Oregon</td> <td>51</td> <td>40</td> <td>70</td> <td>45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">William Moore</td> <td>S </td> <td>Missouri</td> <td>47</td> <td>52</td> <td>60</td> <td>55.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">Sean Smith</td> <td>CB </td> <td>Utah</td> <td>48</td> <td>62</td> <td>56</td> <td>65.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" height="20">D.J. Moore </td> <td>CB </td> <td colspan="2" style="">Vanderbilt </td> <td>94</td> <td>81</td> <td>45.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
The other prop that has caught my attention at Intertops is this one:
Which of the following Big East/ACC players will be drafted first?
Donald Brown +325
Connor Barwin +400
Kenny Britt +400
Clint Sintim +500
Ron Brace +500
Brown is listed as a first round pick in every mock draft I'm tracking (Gosselin, Nawrocki, McGinn, even Kiper and McShay). Barwin isn't listed in any. Britt is only listed by the ESPN guys, not the draft experts talking to scouts and other sources. Nawrocki has Sintim behind Brown, although this isn't his final mock. Brace is nowhere to be found, he might not go first day.
Bottom line is, Brown is a lock for a late first round pick, most likely destination Arizona. Britt is the only other guy who I see as a possible first rounder, but I wouldn't bet on that. Here's the rankings of the 5 players listed above:
<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="307" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="140"><col style="width: 48pt;" span="7" width="64"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt; width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left" height="20">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">
</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">GOS</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">PFW</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">BOB</td> <td style="width: 48pt;" width="64" align="left">GIL</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Donald Brown</td> <td align="left">HB </td> <td align="left">Connecticut</td> <td align="left">30</td> <td align="left">30</td> <td align="left">16</td> <td align="left">35.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Kenny Britt</td> <td align="left">WR </td> <td align="left">Rutgers</td> <td align="left">38</td> <td align="left">46</td> <td align="left">46</td> <td align="left">35.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Clint Sintim</td> <td align="left">OLB </td> <td align="left">Virginia</td> <td align="left">44</td> <td align="left">31</td> <td align="left">33</td> <td align="left">45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Connor Barwin</td> <td align="left">DE </td> <td align="left">Cincinnati</td> <td align="left">40</td> <td align="left">65</td> <td align="left">39</td> <td align="left">45.5</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td style="height: 15pt;" align="left" height="20">Ron Brace</td> <td align="left">DT </td> <td align="left">Boston College</td> <td align="left">58</td> <td align="left">61</td> <td align="left">63</td> <td align="left">65.5</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Bodog.com
Limit: unknownI need to deposit so I can find out limits. Bodog is the place to be for the NFL Draft. In-game betting and..... drumroll please.... YOU CAN PARLAY NFL DRAFT PROPS AT THIS BOOK!
Here's 5 bets listed. I will parlay my 4 wagers at this book with Jason Smith 20/57 to go 2nd overall.
RISK FREE SELECTION
Jason Smith 20/57 to go 2nd overall
This one is a slam dunk people. Every mock draft has this one listed. Take this bet and parlay it with all the other wagers you make at this book to increase your winnings.
VERY LOW RISK SELECTIONS
Andre Smith 10/11 to go 6th overall
As with Jason Smith, every mock has Andre Smith going 6th. Monroe is perceived to be the higher rated tackle, and they should both be available, however experts are predicting that he's the preferred player to Monroe. The books have had this line low before the mocks started putting him 6th, it's as if they knew something. Bengals will be selecting a OT here and they want Smith, who will be available.
Jeremy Maclin 5/4 to go 7th overall
Gosselin, Nawrocki, and McGinn all have Maclin going 7th. I honestly believe they prefer Maclin's speed over Crabtree, as Davis loves speed and has shown this in his draft history. Crabtree could go to Seattle at #4, or Cleveland at #5, so this could be a moot point. This is a pick I thought would happen for a while now. I don't see Maclin going ahead of this pick under any scenario.
SMALL RISK SELECTIONS
Pat White -150 to be drafted in the 2nd round
White is listed as the 56th best player by Gosselin, 57th by Nawrocki, 61st by McGinn, and in the 51-60 tier by Brandt. He's a mid-late 2nd round pick according to all these experts. This is a bit risky, but I have found that 2nd and 3rd round QBs tend to get picked higher than they should. See John Beck, Kellen Clemens, Matt Schaub. He's the only QB option in the second round and shouldn't fall past RD 2. However, ranking 61st, 57th, and 56th, you're only giving a yourself a cushion of 3-8 picks.
Knowshon Moreno +150 to be drafted ahead of Beanie Wells
Every mock draft has Moreno being selected ahead of Beanie, except for the ESPN guys. Similar to the Maclin play, I'll fade ESPN any day for the other guys who have been more accurate EVERY year. Every top 100 board has Moreno ranked ahead of Beanie (slightly) with the exception of Brandt who is the least accurate of the 4 boards listed and came out with his top 100 2 weeks before the draft (unlike everyone else who did it today). This i risky (hence why it is +150) because the two are seen as 1a and 1b for the RB rankings, however Moreno is the A and I think he'll be drafted first, as does Gosselin, Nawrocki, and McGinn. Mayock likes him too, has him as the 3rd best player in the draft and has Beanie out of his top 20. I think Moreno last no longer than the Jets at 17, Wells should be later.
NOTE: THE LATE PARTS OF THE FIRST ROUND FREQUENTLY HAVE LOTS OF TRADES. BET AT YOUR OWN RISK. I AM NOT BETTING THESE, THEY ARE HERE FOR YOUR OWN INFORMATION.
17th pick to be an offensive player -220
The Jets select at 17 and every mock draft listed has them with an offensive player. They are talking about trading up for Sanchez which could screw this up though. Could be Moreno or a WR (Heyward-Bey/Harvin) here.
18th pick to be a defensive player -160
Denver picks at 18 and all mocks have them going defense here. Linebackers such as Matthews, Cushing would fit here, or a defensive lineman (Ayers, Jerry) make sense.
22nd pick to be an offensive player -125
Got to think Minnesota is thinking about a WR, potentially Harvin. Every mock has them going offense here with 4/5 taking a WR. This should be Harvin or Heyward-Bey.
23rd pick to be a defensive player -115
New England isn't a very easy team to figure out when it comes to the draft. However, all mocks have them going defense and I follow experts opinions over the oddsmakers.
24th pick to be a defensive player -165
Atlanta selects here, they're looking at CB or rush end, Vontae Davis, Darius Butler are fits here as does someone like Ayers. All mocks have them taking a defensive player.
25th pick to be a defensive player -110
Parcells and Miami select here, Parcells has traditionally NEVER chose offense in the first round and I don't expect this year to be any different. All mocks have them going CB/DE. Should be Davis or Butler at CB, or Ayers at rush DE. English's name might be mentioned here and in Atlanta/NE.
28th pick to be an offensive player -115
This is Buffalo's 2nd pick. There are rumors of them trading this one so they can move up and get Andre Smith, however if they keep it they will likely fill the offensive line need, where all mocks have them addressing this. Eben Britton is the guy that is mentioned a lot here to replace Jason Peters. They might go Oher at 11 and then take the DE (English/Ayers) here, but I have thought they would go Maybin or Orakpo at 11 (Maybin the name heard frequently) and then Britton at 28.
Sportsbook.com
Limit: $300/bet
PLUS MONEY SELECTIONS
Wide receivers taken in round one UNDER 6 (+110)
Take this plus money to the BANK. Maclin and Crabtree are locks. Heyward-Bey and Pettigrew should be in. However, outside of that, you've got Harvin, and that's it. Britt/Robiskie/Nicks should all be in the 2nd. Absolute worst case scenario you have Britt or Robiskie sneaking in to the Giants or Colts and this bet pushes.
Jeremy Maclin UNDER 7.5 (+110)
He should be going to Oakland. This is better odds than Bodog. I think they prefer him to Crabtree, if that scenario presents itself. Every mock has him going 7th.
B.J. Raji OVER 8.5 (+130)
Defensive tackles fall EVERY year. Glenn Dorsey. Haloti Ngata. Vince Wilfork. Raji is being projected in the top 8 by one expert, McGinn. It's worth the risk at +130 as he'll go to Green Bay or Denver. I don't see Cleveland taking him, that's a reach and they already have Shaun Rogers.
Knowshon Moreno +150 to be drafted ahead of Beanie Wells
Same prop as on Bodog.
Glen Coffee drafted BEFORE Javon Ringer (EVEN) NO RISK
What a JOKE this line is. Coffee is in both Gosselin's (72nd) and Nawrocki's (81st) top 100. McGinn has Coffee 30 spots ahead of Ringer. I mean really? Ringer? He's a scat back with no speed. Them making him the dog is laughable.
MEDIUM JUICE SELECTIONS (0 TO -199)
Andre Smith UNDER 6.5 (-115)
He's going 6th overall in every mock draft. This is the same bet that was on Bodog.
James Laurinaitis will NOT be selected in the first round (-120)
Only one mock (Nawrocki, and that's not his final mock) has him in the first round. Gosselin doesn't. McGinn doesn't. Even Kiper doesn't.He's a RD 2 guy, we often see LBs fall (Karlos Dansby, DeMeco Ryans, Boss Bailey, Teddy Lehman, Dan Connor, etc.).
Aaron Maybin drafted BEFORE Robert Ayers (-130)
Ayers is ranked 27th and 23rd on the big boards. Maybin is a legitimate top 15 talent, ranking 12th and 10th. No doubt will he go ahead of him, he's the better DE. Don't be fooled by the ESPN hype on Ayers' workout. All other mocks have Maybin in the teens, Ayers in the late first.
Running backs taken in round one OVER 2.5 (-140)
Wells and Moreno are locks. You're betting on Donald Brown. Brown will be taken late, probably to Arizona. This should cash, as every mock has Brown in the first round. Some have him in mid round 1.
Percy Harvin drafted BEFORE Hakeem Nicks (-150) NO RISK
Wow. What the hell are people seeing in Hakeem Nicks? Harvin is ranked significantly higher. He's actually being projected in the first round.Brian Cushing to be drafted before Rey Maualuga (-150) NO RISK
No chance Rey goes ahead of Brian. Cushing is going ahead of him in every mock draft. Cushing's lowest position (18th) is equal to Maualuga's highest position (18th).
Offensive linemen in the first round UNDER 6.5 (-160) NO RISK
You've got Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, and Michael Oher all locks in the top 15. Then you have possibly 2 other picks in the late first round, with Buffalo looking OL (Eben Britton) and potentially Pittsburgh looking OL (Max Unger). These teams aren't locks to take OL especially Buffalo who could go OL at 11. I don't see 7 being taken, not under any scenario.
Beanie Wells OVER 14.5 (-170)
TheabsoluteONLY place for him above 14.5 is the Saints, and they're heading towards a defensive player (Malcolm Jenkins if he is there, if not a LB or DL.)
B.J. Raji -170 to be drafted before Brian Orakpo
Raji is ahead of Orakpo in EVERY mock draft. McGinn and Nawrocki have Orakpo going to Washington at 13. Gosselin has him going even lower. Raji is a top 12 pick in every mock.Oddly enough, neither Gosselin, McGinn, or Nawrocki has Orakpo going earlier than 13th.
LARGE JUICE SELECTIONS (-200 OR HIGHER)
Hakeem Nicks OVER 29.5 (-200) NO RISK
FREEEEEEEE MONEY!!! You've got to be kidding me. This guy is a mid second rounder. No one has him in the first round. Not when you run a 4.6.
Brandon Pettigrew drafted before Kenny Britt (-200) NO RISK
Britt isn't a first round pick. Pettigrew is. No further explanation needed.
Rey Maualuga OVER 16.5 (-200)
This guy is going to Baltimore at 26 in 2 mocks, and then is in Denver and Detroit in other ones at 18 and 20. The only risk in him going 16th is that Charger fans want him. The fans do, management knows it's a reach. Much better talent is available, he's the 3rd best LB on his team.
Vontae Davis WILL BE selected in the first round (-250) NO RISK
He's in everyone's mock at the end of the first round. This will cash. He might surprise a few with how high he goes, great measurables at a key position.
Clay Matthews -300 to be drafted before James Laurinaitis NO RISK
Why does Vegas even offer this prop bet? Do they expect anyone to take Laurinaitis here? He probably won't even go first round.
Brian Robiskie will NOT be selected in the first round (-300)
He's a mid second round talent. No one has him in the first round.The only risk is the Colts or Giants reaching for him. Don't see it.
Number of quarterbacks taken in the first round OVER 2.5 (-400) NO RISK
This is a lock. Freeman is a first round pick. Lot of juice though.
Clay Matthews WILL be selected in the first round (-400) NO RISK
Free money. May be the first LB off the board.
Josh Freeman WILL be selected in the first round (-450) NO RISK
See above explanations. This is worse odds than the first bet at (-400) though of 3 QBs in the first round.
Jason Smith 2nd overall pick -500 NO RISK
You can get better odds on Bodog, and parlay it with other bets
NOTE: THE SECOND ROUND OFTEN HAS SURPRISES AND IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT THAN THE FIRST ROUND. BET AT YOUR OWN RISK
Pat White WILL be drafted on the first day (-150)
Same as Bodog.
John Parker Wilson will NOT be selected on the first day (-600) NO RISK
Come on. Ignore the warning for this one.
Shonn Greene WILL be selected on the first day (EVEN)
Gosselin has him at 52nd, Nawrocki 55th, and McGinn 50th. He should be a mid-late 2nd round pick.
Duke Robinson will NOT be selected on the first day (-160)
Oklahoma linemen always find a way to be overrated and fall. The last legitimate Oklahoma lineman I remember was Davin Joseph. No one has this guy in the top 64. Gosselin has him 92nd. If that's not enough to convince you Nawrocki has him 75th and McGinn 79th.
LeSean McCoy WILL be selected on the first day (-300)
Not great odds like Greene was getting (a comparable back in terms of value), but he's safely in the first day. Gosselin has him 39th, that's almost a first rounder. Nawrocki has him 58th (hater) and McGinn 41st.
