95% of the time I would bet -3 but in this situation when +4 (-105) was not there the entire month and this is a heavily bet game becuase of bowl game, than i do the complete opposite and fade the late move. I compare it to a Thursday nite game when a game is lined -3 all week and just 10 mintues before the game the numbers starts moving crossing a key number and hits a number not seen all week, an apex number. I doubt sharps/syndicates/ big bettors were sitting around all week and than clobbering this game when it -3.5. Not saying they didnt hit it hard at -3. I am not 100% sure who or what bet this but this is how I have done this and it makes all the sense to me. Bet apex numbers not seen all week.
-3 was the number all week long, that is the true number (IMO in what I define and do) and it sat there on it for close to a month, than if it moves really late to a new number just before kickoff I bet it at its apex. I dont have a problem with anyone taking -3 as it does beat the closing line but the value to me is in the +4 fading the late money (whatever you call it) and getting a GREAT number.
Been able to do pretty good with this approach in bowl games (got Virgina +6.5 -100 with this earlier). Hope to get Georgia if it hits -7 for the first time this month and Illinois +14.5 but they may not happen but one of my books might post it for a few minutes and if so i will grab it. In all reality these points will only come into play 5 out of 100 times but those 5 times will hopefully turn me into a winner. This pretty much sums it up. This too me is how I bet and is the best way to go about sportsbetting. Always get the best number.
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