and I thought there was only a right side and a wrong side no matter who is on it and who isn't
usually lots of ex-post-facto analysis to justify anybody's theory that they want to believe in
Games which qualifies for a sharp / square side...
Trends...
- Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 road starts.
- Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts.
- Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts on grass.
- Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Percentages...
Team Spread ML
967 MIN - C Pavano 67% 84%
968 BAL - K Millwood 33% 16%
Line Movement...
Line History:
Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
RUNLINES
07/22 13:05 -1½ +105 / +1½ -114
07/22 13:06 -1½ +106 / +1½ -115
07/22 15:40 -1½ +107 / +1½ -116
07/22 15:51 -1½ +108 / +1½ -117
Current prices across the web (-1.5 / +1.5)...
"If I want to bet the Twins, I'm going to..."
Pinnacle +108 / -117
5dimes +104 / -114
The Greek +100 / -120
Jazz +100 / -120
"If I want to bet the Orioles, I'm going to..."
Bodog -110/ -110
BetOnline -110 / -110
Sportsbetting -110 / -110
Calculating edge that these have on no-vig sides (assuming you believe that Pinnacle is an efficient market and/or possesses a crystal ball more times than not)...
Pinnacle Probability EV Odds
Dog 108 0.480769231 0.471370232 112.1474654
Fav -117 0.539170507 0.528629768 -112.1474654
Other Probability EDGE
Dog -110 0.523809524 -10.01113753
Fav -110 0.523809524 0.920228438
And there you have it. According to Pinnacle's no-vig price, the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-110) has a 0.92% edge on the house. Assuming you have a $10,000 bankroll, you would structure it by placing $101.23 to win $92.02 on the Orioles +1.5 (-110) at one of those books listed above. It is reverse line movement (line moving one way whereas the majority of the bets are going the other) with a +EV bet to Pinnacle's no-vig number. If you do this over a continued period of time, you will make money sports betting.
Games which qualifies for a sharp / square side...
Trends...
- Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 road starts.
- Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Twins are 4-0 in Pavanos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts.
- Twins are 7-1 in Pavanos last 8 starts on grass.
- Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Twins are 5-1 in Pavanos last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Twins are 4-1 in Pavanos last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. American League Central.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 home games.
- Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Percentages...
Team Spread ML
967 MIN - C Pavano 67% 84%
968 BAL - K Millwood 33% 16%
Line Movement...
Line History:
Minnesota Twins vs Baltimore Orioles
RUNLINES
07/22 13:05 -1½ +105 / +1½ -114
07/22 13:06 -1½ +106 / +1½ -115
07/22 15:40 -1½ +107 / +1½ -116
07/22 15:51 -1½ +108 / +1½ -117
Current prices across the web (-1.5 / +1.5)...
"If I want to bet the Twins, I'm going to..."
Pinnacle +108 / -117
5dimes +104 / -114
The Greek +100 / -120
Jazz +100 / -120
"If I want to bet the Orioles, I'm going to..."
Bodog -110/ -110
BetOnline -110 / -110
Sportsbetting -110 / -110
Calculating edge that these have on no-vig sides (assuming you believe that Pinnacle is an efficient market and/or possesses a crystal ball more times than not)...
Pinnacle Probability EV Odds
Dog 108 0.480769231 0.471370232 112.1474654
Fav -117 0.539170507 0.528629768 -112.1474654
Other Probability EDGE
Dog -110 0.523809524 -10.01113753
Fav -110 0.523809524 0.920228438
And there you have it. According to Pinnacle's no-vig price, the Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-110) has a 0.92% edge on the house. Assuming you have a $10,000 bankroll, you would structure it by placing $101.23 to win $92.02 on the Orioles +1.5 (-110) at one of those books listed above. It is reverse line movement (line moving one way whereas the majority of the bets are going the other) with a +EV bet to Pinnacle's no-vig number. If you do this over a continued period of time, you will make money sports betting.
RLM IS EXTREMELY PROFITABLE IN MLB AND CFB. SOMTHING LIKE 14 - 1 on the year in bases when its a 60/40 ratio and the line moves atleast 5 points. CFB LAST YEAR WAS 18 - 3 WHEN THE LINE MOVES ATLEAST 2 POINTS W RLM.
TWO THINGS I CANT WRAP MY HEAD AROUND
why only these two sports? and will i ever c a world champ in any sport in cleveland?
There are 4 sides to every event IMO...
The right side (the side that wins)
The wrong side (the side that loses)
The square side (the side that your ESPN sports fan intuition suggests you should bet)
You might be on the square side IF...
- Your reasoning for betting this side includes the words "I think"
- The majority of the action is on this side
- You don't take into consideration what the line is at certain books
- You look at trends to formulate an opinionated side
- You use widely available public statistics to "cap"
- Your "system" doesn't take into consideration the price of a side
- You think there's "great value" at Betfair, 5dimes / Sportbet, BetJamaica, Intertops, Jazz
The sharp side (the side which the books are rooting for, generally the other side of the ESPN sports fans pick)
You might be on the sharp side IF...
- You bet off-market numbers, believing that the sports market is inefficient
- The majority of the action is on the other side
- You see great value in lines at Sportsbook, Sportsbetting, BetEd, SIA, BetOnline, SBG Global, Bet Phoenix
- Your reasoning for placing a wager is "I got a good number"
- You structure your risk to win based on the edge you have on no-vig prices at books with high limits and low juice
That doesn't make you a sharp either, that just means you have accounts at crappy sportsbooks who's lines cater to square action. The "sharp side" doesn't always win, but it does win more often than not.