I have extreme doubts about that unless they pickup some monster ace by trade during the year. The big prices aren't generated by teams as much as dominating pitchers. If Kevin Brown stays healthy and pitches great, you might see some -380 and maybe -400 numbers, but not much beyond that. Otherwise only time you saw numbers near that was when Pedro went against the DRays and I remember a -370 a couple years ago with Randy Johnson going against some rookie in his second start. I don't remember a -500 though.
If a team is -500, the dog will be +375 at best. You won't see a +450.
I have made a lot of money in the last three years going against "common logic" and on occasion laying the big favorites. I don't buy the never lay over -150 thinking of some people, there is value in any situation in certain spots. The key is to do your homework and carefully study the history of the team against the pitcher. Pedro has cleaned up for me against the Rays. Those guys hit like .089 against him or something like that. If the Sox are in decent form then -350 isn't that bad a price when you figure all that potent lineup has to do is get 2 runs and I figure I am in excellent shape. I just personally think there is some value in betting the big favorites in the right spot because a lot of people will blindly bet the dog in that position just on price alone. Oh well, just an opinion, but my ROI on the big favorites is over 20% last 3 years and I know I made money before that, just that I didn't have quite the recordkeeping system I have now to measure it.
I have made a lot of money in the last three years going against "common logic" and on occasion laying the big favorites. I don't buy the never lay over -150 thinking of some people, there is value in any situation in certain spots. The key is to do your homework and carefully study the history of the team against the pitcher. Pedro has cleaned up for me against the Rays. Those guys hit like .089 against him or something like that. If the Sox are in decent form then -350 isn't that bad a price when you figure all that potent lineup has to do is get 2 runs and I figure I am in excellent shape. I just personally think there is some value in betting the big favorites in the right spot because a lot of people will blindly bet the dog in that position just on price alone. Oh well, just an opinion, but my ROI on the big favorites is over 20% last 3 years and I know I made money before that, just that I didn't have quite the recordkeeping system I have now to measure it.
games like that are pure NO Plays for me, i dont bet many favorites over -1.40 and i dont take many dogs over that price either.. I do think the Yankee pitching will let them down big time this season (with the exception of Moose and Mariano) and they will be very beatable guys (look at game 1).. what you need to focus on is the Yankee OVERS, they will come in alot..
My old local guy always has said that the largest line he ever saw(and he was booking then too) was on Dodgers with Koufax in prime
against early Mets in '63/'64. Koufax had beaten Mets like first 24 times(c.) he had faced them in 62-64 and line had rose to -460 on La at home and -380 on road.
I can't envision today being more of a mis-match than that.
against early Mets in '63/'64. Koufax had beaten Mets like first 24 times(c.) he had faced them in 62-64 and line had rose to -460 on La at home and -380 on road.
I can't envision today being more of a mis-match than that.
they might jack them up, but not for awhile.. 9.5 was gravy on the two games in japan.. For the first few weeks, weather will play a role in these totals.. By July you wont see a Drys/Yanks total at 9.5.. Yanks overs are 2-0 now, just keep up with it.. I think their pitching will be weak and this will add to the totals, i think they will be very much beatable and some good money can be made on the dogs in their games.. Its going to be very interesting and lets hope profitable,, ive taken a peak at sun/mon/tues games already and we have some good ones to start with..
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by WildBill:
If a team is -500, the dog will be +375 at best. You won't see a +450.
I have made a lot of money in the last three years going against "common logic" and on occasion laying the big favorites. I don't buy the never lay over -150 thinking of some people, there is value in any situation in certain spots. The key is to do your homework and carefully study the history of the team against the pitcher. Pedro has cleaned up for me against the Rays. Those guys hit like .089 against him or something like that. If the Sox are in decent form then -350 isn't that bad a price when you figure all that potent lineup has to do is get 2 runs and I figure I am in excellent shape. I just personally think there is some value in betting the big favorites in the right spot because a lot of people will blindly bet the dog in that position just on price alone. Oh well, just an opinion, but my ROI on the big favorites is over 20% last 3 years and I know I made money before that, just that I didn't have quite the recordkeeping system I have now to measure it.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You are dead on WB & these same thinkers are the one that pass up alot of winners by the end of the season & their results show for it.
If a team is -500, the dog will be +375 at best. You won't see a +450.
I have made a lot of money in the last three years going against "common logic" and on occasion laying the big favorites. I don't buy the never lay over -150 thinking of some people, there is value in any situation in certain spots. The key is to do your homework and carefully study the history of the team against the pitcher. Pedro has cleaned up for me against the Rays. Those guys hit like .089 against him or something like that. If the Sox are in decent form then -350 isn't that bad a price when you figure all that potent lineup has to do is get 2 runs and I figure I am in excellent shape. I just personally think there is some value in betting the big favorites in the right spot because a lot of people will blindly bet the dog in that position just on price alone. Oh well, just an opinion, but my ROI on the big favorites is over 20% last 3 years and I know I made money before that, just that I didn't have quite the recordkeeping system I have now to measure it.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You are dead on WB & these same thinkers are the one that pass up alot of winners by the end of the season & their results show for it.
Rumor has it that Pedro's heater is not so hot. He has been getting knocked around in Spring Training. Caution might be called for in April, watch a couple of starts. As far as playing monster favorites in bassball goes, sure there are times when laying heavy wood makes sense. Some pitchers do seem to own certain teams, especially under the right circumstances like vs, a #5 starter. However first thing I try to do is look for a good reason to take plus large juice, then if nothing at all points me in that direction. I will cap the game with an eye towards betting the big favorite.
wil.
wil.
