yankees could be -400 and id still say its new york or nothing (with the tacit understanding that 'nothing' would a little wiser)
but it doesnt matter what the line is or what the perceived value is with baltimore. fact is, they are still going to have to get runs of chamberlain to win the game ... and its very doubtful they can score enough to win, especially with them trotting a sacrificial lamb out there.
but it doesnt matter what the line is or what the perceived value is with baltimore. fact is, they are still going to have to get runs of chamberlain to win the game ... and its very doubtful they can score enough to win, especially with them trotting a sacrificial lamb out there.
He is one of the best in the league and is facing a last place team. He was like -220 against Texas when they were hot and he was less established so cant say id be suprised if this gets to -300.
And can we please stop this "value" bullshit. It seems everytime their is a big favorite you get people saying how much value their is on the dog. Value is a even matchup where you get +120 not a team that is inferior in every aspect of that days matchup.
And can we please stop this "value" bullshit. It seems everytime their is a big favorite you get people saying how much value their is on the dog. Value is a even matchup where you get +120 not a team that is inferior in every aspect of that days matchup.
it has begun. :lol:
big square favorites do go down. if NY wins 9-2, people will be slapping themselves in the back for picking up the free money. If NY doesnt hit and its 2-2 in the 7th, the game can slip away. Or a bullpen blowup. Or, hate to say it, but strong pitchers do have mediocre outings sometimes. or an error leads to a few extra runs. LOTS of stuff can happen in one 9 inning game for it to go wrong for NY. Yankees will be super, super square tomorrow
big square favorites do go down. if NY wins 9-2, people will be slapping themselves in the back for picking up the free money. If NY doesnt hit and its 2-2 in the 7th, the game can slip away. Or a bullpen blowup. Or, hate to say it, but strong pitchers do have mediocre outings sometimes. or an error leads to a few extra runs. LOTS of stuff can happen in one 9 inning game for it to go wrong for NY. Yankees will be super, super square tomorrow
this is very true. 'value' is a very common, yet almost always misapplied, capping term. in baseball, it doesnt matter how 'square' a particular side is. the fact of the matter is that the inferior team has to win that night's game straight up. there's no 'backdoor cover'. there's no 'betting the clock' like you can do in football sometimes with an ugly dog. the dog has to score more runs ... period. so whether the line is -150, -350, or -550 baltimore is still going to have to not only hit chamberlain but theyre also going to have to pitch well enough to win. two parts to the winning equation. this isnt chamberlian vs. guthrie. much different setup. you dont get any bonus points or pats on the back or refunds from your book if you lose 8-5 or 6-4 with a big dog.
If Joba faces Sarafate 10 times in the Bronx how many of the games do the Yanks win @ -275?
Yanks need to win 8 of 10 under these conditions just to turn a small profit.......Orioles need to win 3 of these just to break even +675 for 3 wins/-700 7 losses
Personally I dont think the Yanks can win this game 90% of the time and I dont think the Orioles can this game more than 30% of the time so in reality this game should be avoided probably for both sides unless its a small play on the Birds (pretty stupid for anyone to ever bet anything at -275 anyways)
If it was me playing this game and I had valid reasons to bet the Yanks it would have to be on the run line (bad bet).....again if it was my play it would Orioles small (win 1 unit risk .4) or pass.
PEACE
Yanks need to win 8 of 10 under these conditions just to turn a small profit.......Orioles need to win 3 of these just to break even +675 for 3 wins/-700 7 losses
Personally I dont think the Yanks can win this game 90% of the time and I dont think the Orioles can this game more than 30% of the time so in reality this game should be avoided probably for both sides unless its a small play on the Birds (pretty stupid for anyone to ever bet anything at -275 anyways)
If it was me playing this game and I had valid reasons to bet the Yanks it would have to be on the run line (bad bet).....again if it was my play it would Orioles small (win 1 unit risk .4) or pass.
PEACE
