| NBA Basketball Consensus: Public Picks | | ||||||||
| Time | Rot | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |||
| Thursday, June 12, 2014 | |||||||||
| 9:00pm odds | 707 708 | San Antonio Miami Heat | 5194 5748 |
| 3583 4928 |
| O 4438 U 2358 |
|
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</tbody>
THURSDAY NIGHT PLAYOFFS / NBA PLAYOFFS (76-72)
Here we go my friends.....
1st Half Wagers:
5000 Miami -3
5000 Miami ML -189
3000 Miami Under 97
Regular Wagers:
7000 Miami -5
7000 Miami ML -225
Good Luck,
XS
Here we go my friends.....
1st Half Wagers:
5000 Miami -3
5000 Miami ML -189
3000 Miami Under 97
Regular Wagers:
7000 Miami -5
7000 Miami ML -225
Good Luck,
XS
THURSDAY RESULTS (2-4) -$35,400 / NBA PLAYOFFS (78-76)
Here are my results from Thursday......
1st Half Wagers:
5000 Miami -3 (Lost)
5000 Miami ML -189 (Lost)
3000 Miami Under 97 (Winner 91 Points)
Regular Wagers:
7000 Miami -5 (Lost)
7000 Miami ML -225 (Lost)
XS
Here are my results from Thursday......
1st Half Wagers:
5000 Miami -3 (Lost)
5000 Miami ML -189 (Lost)
3000 Miami Under 97 (Winner 91 Points)
Regular Wagers:
7000 Miami -5 (Lost)
7000 Miami ML -225 (Lost)
XS
| [h=1]NBA Basketball Consensus: Public Picks [/h] | | ||||||||
| Time | Rot | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |||
| Sunday, June 15, 2014 | | ||||||||
| 8:00pm odds | 709 710 | Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs | 6320 5138 |
| 6063 3107 |
| O 7852 U 978 |
|
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</tbody>
Game 5 line moves to Spurs -5.5
Books opened the San Antonio Spurs as 5-point home faves after their Game 4 trouncing of the Miami Heat in South Beach and that line climbed up to -6 heading into Sunday.
But earlier Sunday morning, the line moved with most books now offering Spurs -5.5.
Books opened the San Antonio Spurs as 5-point home faves after their Game 4 trouncing of the Miami Heat in South Beach and that line climbed up to -6 heading into Sunday.
But earlier Sunday morning, the line moved with most books now offering Spurs -5.5.
Heat/Spurs #5: The Game Inside the Game By DAVID MALINSKY
A series that many hoped would resemble the seven-game thriller of last June has been filled with Mastery, not Mystery. So as the teams head to San Antonio for Sunday night, the question becomes whether there is anything that the Heat can do to prevent a Championship trophy, on Fathers Day, going to someone called “Pops”.
The Miami issues in this series have been documented on these pages. The Game #2 win was not good basketball from the Heat, but rather a great individual performance from LeBron James that overcame a mediocre floor game. Outside of that, considering that the Spurs are flowing offensively as well as any team since the Magic-Worthy-Kareem Lakers, it has not been a surprise that they were able to take advantage of the Miami holes. It is how easily it has happened that would have been difficult to anticipate – no team in NBA Finals history ever won back-to-back road games by 40 points.
To recap the cracks in the Heat armor, it is a bit of a Good News/Bad News situation. The good is that Erik Spoelstra had a cast of veterans on the bench that he could mesh into just about any flow that was needed, and through these playoffs there has been a lot of lineup juggling, largely successful through the earlier rounds. The bad is that the San Antonio chemistry and execution is at such a high level that it takes a tremendous amount of teamwork to be able to match up. Spoelstra’s current configuration lacks that teamwork. Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen and Norris Cole are getting many more minutes than they had been accustomed to, and there just is not any way to get them into a defensive rotation that can cope with the way that the Spurs are moving the ball, especially when there is not a shot blocker to protect the rim. Imagine Spoelstra’s desperation when he went to Toney Douglas down 46-28 in the second quarter, the first time Douglas had left the bench in the first half of these playoffs.
San Antonio shot a sparkling 58.2 percent in the two wins at Miami, with 46 assists paving the way. It was a beautiful ballet of basketball to watch. Until the Heat got the ball, when those same chemistry issues came into play. By halftime of Game #4 Miami was down to a 50-50 ratio of assists to turnovers for the entire series, and imagine how ugly the Game #4 bottom line would have looked if not for that late barrage from James Jones (4-4 for 11 points, nailing all three triples) – the Heat were sitting on 75 with a little over 2:00 remaining.
There is also an issue that goes beyond the tactical X’s and O’s. A couple of weeks ago there was a take here on Dwayne Wade, and how the injury time off may have actually kept him a little fresher for the playoffs, with his spark vs. Indiana reminiscent of his former abilities. On Thursday Wade simply looked gassed. There was no lift in his legs, and he only managed 3-13 from the field, with two rebounds, over 32:54. He does get an extra day off before Game #5 tips off, but that may not be enough.
For as good as Miami has been in winning back-to-back titles, there simply may not be any options to correct the flaws this matchup brings. Spoelstra can not build a defensive chemistry over two practice sessions, and with Kawhil Leonard gaining in confidence as he guards James, the answers on offense are problematic as well. James has continued to shoot well from the perimeter, but as was discussed on this page earlier in the series, Gregg Popovich will give him those shots all evening.
Consider this – James was a terrific 19-31 from the field in the two games in Miami, including 6-12 from beyond the arc, and the Heat lost by 40. How does that happen? It happens because the offense works best when he is getting to the basket to break down the defense and create for the others. Leonard and the Spurs are closing that off, with part of the result reflected in James only getting to the line for nine FT attempts in the two defeats. As for the other part of the equation, on Thursday he only had two assists, and for the series it has been 18 turnovers vs. 15 successful dishes.
Now on to Sunday. The early markets have settled in at San Antonio -6, which marks the biggest underdog price Miami has been offered in the 380 games of the James era. But even the most ardent of Zig-Zag followers are going to find it difficult to reach into their pockets. If there is a chance for the Heat to be in the hunt it will not come from X’s and O’s adjustments, but from James reaching back for a special effort, or Wade finding his legs again. As such, if you harbor Miami notions you may want to look at individual James props instead, rather than a team wager – it would be no surprise if he played well into the 40’s if the game is competitive.
That last line perhaps says it all. In the Game #4 prelude the closing line was that for the Heat to win - “they will have to execute a level they might not have reached yet in the 2014 playoffs”. The gap really is that wide, and if Sunday brings us the last chance to see the Spurs in this configuration (Tim Duncan could make this his NBA Swan Song), the level of basketball they have played is something that will be appreciated far into the years ahead.
A series that many hoped would resemble the seven-game thriller of last June has been filled with Mastery, not Mystery. So as the teams head to San Antonio for Sunday night, the question becomes whether there is anything that the Heat can do to prevent a Championship trophy, on Fathers Day, going to someone called “Pops”.
The Miami issues in this series have been documented on these pages. The Game #2 win was not good basketball from the Heat, but rather a great individual performance from LeBron James that overcame a mediocre floor game. Outside of that, considering that the Spurs are flowing offensively as well as any team since the Magic-Worthy-Kareem Lakers, it has not been a surprise that they were able to take advantage of the Miami holes. It is how easily it has happened that would have been difficult to anticipate – no team in NBA Finals history ever won back-to-back road games by 40 points.
To recap the cracks in the Heat armor, it is a bit of a Good News/Bad News situation. The good is that Erik Spoelstra had a cast of veterans on the bench that he could mesh into just about any flow that was needed, and through these playoffs there has been a lot of lineup juggling, largely successful through the earlier rounds. The bad is that the San Antonio chemistry and execution is at such a high level that it takes a tremendous amount of teamwork to be able to match up. Spoelstra’s current configuration lacks that teamwork. Rashard Lewis, Ray Allen and Norris Cole are getting many more minutes than they had been accustomed to, and there just is not any way to get them into a defensive rotation that can cope with the way that the Spurs are moving the ball, especially when there is not a shot blocker to protect the rim. Imagine Spoelstra’s desperation when he went to Toney Douglas down 46-28 in the second quarter, the first time Douglas had left the bench in the first half of these playoffs.
San Antonio shot a sparkling 58.2 percent in the two wins at Miami, with 46 assists paving the way. It was a beautiful ballet of basketball to watch. Until the Heat got the ball, when those same chemistry issues came into play. By halftime of Game #4 Miami was down to a 50-50 ratio of assists to turnovers for the entire series, and imagine how ugly the Game #4 bottom line would have looked if not for that late barrage from James Jones (4-4 for 11 points, nailing all three triples) – the Heat were sitting on 75 with a little over 2:00 remaining.
There is also an issue that goes beyond the tactical X’s and O’s. A couple of weeks ago there was a take here on Dwayne Wade, and how the injury time off may have actually kept him a little fresher for the playoffs, with his spark vs. Indiana reminiscent of his former abilities. On Thursday Wade simply looked gassed. There was no lift in his legs, and he only managed 3-13 from the field, with two rebounds, over 32:54. He does get an extra day off before Game #5 tips off, but that may not be enough.
For as good as Miami has been in winning back-to-back titles, there simply may not be any options to correct the flaws this matchup brings. Spoelstra can not build a defensive chemistry over two practice sessions, and with Kawhil Leonard gaining in confidence as he guards James, the answers on offense are problematic as well. James has continued to shoot well from the perimeter, but as was discussed on this page earlier in the series, Gregg Popovich will give him those shots all evening.
Consider this – James was a terrific 19-31 from the field in the two games in Miami, including 6-12 from beyond the arc, and the Heat lost by 40. How does that happen? It happens because the offense works best when he is getting to the basket to break down the defense and create for the others. Leonard and the Spurs are closing that off, with part of the result reflected in James only getting to the line for nine FT attempts in the two defeats. As for the other part of the equation, on Thursday he only had two assists, and for the series it has been 18 turnovers vs. 15 successful dishes.
Now on to Sunday. The early markets have settled in at San Antonio -6, which marks the biggest underdog price Miami has been offered in the 380 games of the James era. But even the most ardent of Zig-Zag followers are going to find it difficult to reach into their pockets. If there is a chance for the Heat to be in the hunt it will not come from X’s and O’s adjustments, but from James reaching back for a special effort, or Wade finding his legs again. As such, if you harbor Miami notions you may want to look at individual James props instead, rather than a team wager – it would be no surprise if he played well into the 40’s if the game is competitive.
That last line perhaps says it all. In the Game #4 prelude the closing line was that for the Heat to win - “they will have to execute a level they might not have reached yet in the 2014 playoffs”. The gap really is that wide, and if Sunday brings us the last chance to see the Spurs in this configuration (Tim Duncan could make this his NBA Swan Song), the level of basketball they have played is something that will be appreciated far into the years ahead.
Heat try to stay alive
Miami (67-34) at San Antonio (77-27)
NBA Finals
Game 5 – San Antonio leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line and Total: San Antonio -6, Total: 195
The NBA Finals head back to Texas on Sunday as the Spurs look to close out the series in five games and get a revenge victory over the Heat after last year’s upsetting loss.
This series has been absolutely dominated by San Antonio, which is coming off yet another big win in Game 4. The club breezed to victory by a score of 107-86 as five-point underdogs in Miami while shooting an incredible 57% from the field; marking the third time in this series that the team has shot that well. As usual, the Spurs were getting great shots with tremendous ball movement, finishing with 25 assists in the game while absolutely dominating the boards as they outrebounded the Heat 44-27. Miami has actually had a few great shooting performances of their own in this series, hitting better than 51% of its field goals in both Games 2 & 3, but has just seemed outmatched, as LeBron James is the only player on the team with consistent numbers throughout the NBA Finals.
Going back on the road does not bode well for the Heat either as they are just 27-23 SU (24-24 ATS) in away games over the entire season. Meanwhile, San Antonio probably feels like it has a lock on this series since the club is an incredible 42-11 SU (28-25 ATS) when playing at home while going 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) there in the playoffs.
These two clubs have obviously had a storied matchup over the past few seasons against each other and Miami holds a slight 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) edge when facing the Spurs over the past three seasons. In that time, San Antonio is 4-3 (SU and ATS) in its home games.
Some trends that bettors may want to take notice of is that the Heat are 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or fewer rebounds over the past two seasons while the Spurs are 22-10 ATS (69%) in the past two seasons after a game where they made at least 55% FG.
Fatigue will likely be the only type of concern that needs to be watched in this contest, as neither side is nursing any significant injuries for this important game.
The Heat have seen their scoring output drop in the playoffs (97.8 PPG) while they have put up just 92.8 PPG in the NBA Finals through four games. Their defense has also been much worse in this series as they are allowing the Spurs to drop 106.0 PPG on them, which is much greater than the 95.1 PPG (48% FG) allowed over the entire postseason.
SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) scored a team-high 28 points in Thursday’s loss while failing to record a steal for the first time in six games. He has made 60% of his shots in the NBA Finals while also hitting an incredible 11-of-18 threes.
SG Dwyane Wade (16.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) played very poorly in Game 4, shooting just 3-for-13 from the field with 10 points while adding four assists and four steals. The game was his worst shooting performance of the postseason, and he has also really struggled with ball security in this series as he has turned it over 3.8 times per game.
C Chris Bosh (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG in finals) averaged 18.0 PPG in the two games on the road in this series but netted just 10.5 PPG in the two home contests while grabbing just seven total rebounds. He has also been non-existent on the defense side of the ball with just one block in the series after averaging 1.3 BPG in the playoff games before the finals.
SG Ray Allen (11.0 PPG in series) has made 8-of-19 (42%) threes in this series but has scored double-digit points just twice.
The Spurs have been on an absolute tear through these playoffs, hitting 49% of their shots while averaging 106.5 PPG. Their defense has been great as well, giving up just 97.5 PPG (45% FG) to their opponents.
PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG in series) had 10 points and 11 boards in Thursday’s victory and now has three double-doubles in the first four games of the NBA Finals. He was tremendous in the first two contests of this series when playing at home, averaging 19.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG.
PG Tony Parker (18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.0 SPG in finals) had 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Game 4 while recording a series-low two assists. He’s been amazingly consistent over these four games and has actually shot 8-for-15 from the field in three games against the Heat so far while making just 13-of-18 from the charity stripe in the series.
SF Kawhi Leonard (16.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.3 SPG in finals) was the difference maker in the two games at Miami, leading the team in scoring in both wins while averaging 24.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG. He has done well shooting from all areas of the floor, making 23-of-39 (59%) shots overall and 8-of-15 from behind the arc.
SG Manu Ginobili (13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in finals) had only seven points in Thursday’s victory, but was great in the two games at home (17.5 PPG, 7.5 APG) to start this series.
Miami (67-34) at San Antonio (77-27)
NBA Finals
Game 5 – San Antonio leads series 3-1
Tip-off: Sunday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line and Total: San Antonio -6, Total: 195
The NBA Finals head back to Texas on Sunday as the Spurs look to close out the series in five games and get a revenge victory over the Heat after last year’s upsetting loss.
This series has been absolutely dominated by San Antonio, which is coming off yet another big win in Game 4. The club breezed to victory by a score of 107-86 as five-point underdogs in Miami while shooting an incredible 57% from the field; marking the third time in this series that the team has shot that well. As usual, the Spurs were getting great shots with tremendous ball movement, finishing with 25 assists in the game while absolutely dominating the boards as they outrebounded the Heat 44-27. Miami has actually had a few great shooting performances of their own in this series, hitting better than 51% of its field goals in both Games 2 & 3, but has just seemed outmatched, as LeBron James is the only player on the team with consistent numbers throughout the NBA Finals.
Going back on the road does not bode well for the Heat either as they are just 27-23 SU (24-24 ATS) in away games over the entire season. Meanwhile, San Antonio probably feels like it has a lock on this series since the club is an incredible 42-11 SU (28-25 ATS) when playing at home while going 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) there in the playoffs.
These two clubs have obviously had a storied matchup over the past few seasons against each other and Miami holds a slight 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) edge when facing the Spurs over the past three seasons. In that time, San Antonio is 4-3 (SU and ATS) in its home games.
Some trends that bettors may want to take notice of is that the Heat are 9-0 ATS in road games after a game with 35 or fewer rebounds over the past two seasons while the Spurs are 22-10 ATS (69%) in the past two seasons after a game where they made at least 55% FG.
Fatigue will likely be the only type of concern that needs to be watched in this contest, as neither side is nursing any significant injuries for this important game.
The Heat have seen their scoring output drop in the playoffs (97.8 PPG) while they have put up just 92.8 PPG in the NBA Finals through four games. Their defense has also been much worse in this series as they are allowing the Spurs to drop 106.0 PPG on them, which is much greater than the 95.1 PPG (48% FG) allowed over the entire postseason.
SF LeBron James (27.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.8 APG, 2.5 SPG in series) scored a team-high 28 points in Thursday’s loss while failing to record a steal for the first time in six games. He has made 60% of his shots in the NBA Finals while also hitting an incredible 11-of-18 threes.
SG Dwyane Wade (16.3 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 2.0 SPG in series) played very poorly in Game 4, shooting just 3-for-13 from the field with 10 points while adding four assists and four steals. The game was his worst shooting performance of the postseason, and he has also really struggled with ball security in this series as he has turned it over 3.8 times per game.
C Chris Bosh (14.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG in finals) averaged 18.0 PPG in the two games on the road in this series but netted just 10.5 PPG in the two home contests while grabbing just seven total rebounds. He has also been non-existent on the defense side of the ball with just one block in the series after averaging 1.3 BPG in the playoff games before the finals.
SG Ray Allen (11.0 PPG in series) has made 8-of-19 (42%) threes in this series but has scored double-digit points just twice.
The Spurs have been on an absolute tear through these playoffs, hitting 49% of their shots while averaging 106.5 PPG. Their defense has been great as well, giving up just 97.5 PPG (45% FG) to their opponents.
PF Tim Duncan (15.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG in series) had 10 points and 11 boards in Thursday’s victory and now has three double-doubles in the first four games of the NBA Finals. He was tremendous in the first two contests of this series when playing at home, averaging 19.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG.
PG Tony Parker (18.5 PPG, 5.3 APG, 1.0 SPG in finals) had 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting in Game 4 while recording a series-low two assists. He’s been amazingly consistent over these four games and has actually shot 8-for-15 from the field in three games against the Heat so far while making just 13-of-18 from the charity stripe in the series.
SF Kawhi Leonard (16.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.3 SPG in finals) was the difference maker in the two games at Miami, leading the team in scoring in both wins while averaging 24.5 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG. He has done well shooting from all areas of the floor, making 23-of-39 (59%) shots overall and 8-of-15 from behind the arc.
SG Manu Ginobili (13.3 PPG, 4.5 APG, 1.3 SPG in finals) had only seven points in Thursday’s victory, but was great in the two games at home (17.5 PPG, 7.5 APG) to start this series.
Game of the Day: Heat at Spurs
Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 196)
The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from their fifth NBA title and can claim their first championship since 2007 when they host the Miami Heat in Sunday’s Game 5. San Antonio rolled to back-to-back dominating wins in Miami to take a 3-1 series lead and is in good shape when you consider no NBA team has ever recovered from that deficit in NBA Finals play. The Spurs’ three victories are by an average of 18.3 points.
Heat standout LeBron James was among the stunned players over how easily San Antonio dismantled Miami the past two games. “I mean, they smashed us,” James told reporters. “Two straight home games, got off to awful starts. They came in and were much better than us in these two games. It’s just that simple.” Spurs veteran Tim Duncan expects a fierce effort from the Heat as San Antonio attempts to avenge last season’s finals loss to the Heat. “We’re going to use our home court and we’re going to come with the same focus that we did in these last two games, and hopefully close it out at home,” Duncan told reporters.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC
LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened at -5 before moving to -5.5 and now currently sit at -6. The total opened at 197 before being bet down to 195.5.
INJURY REPORT: N/A
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Heat hadn't lost back-to-back games in the postseason since 2012, but that string of excellence came to an abrupt halt in Game 4. Miami's role players are "M.I.A.", the Spurs' incredible depth has played a big part in their lop-sided 3-1 lead. I said after Game 2 that this series would be decided by the head coaches. Eric Spolestra is getting out-maneuvered by Gregg Popovich, who with one more coaching masterpiece will cement his legacy as one of the greatest in the history of the league." Covers Expert Nick Parsons.
ABOUT THE HEAT: James is averaging 27.5 points in the series and is very much aware that no team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals. He asserts that the players only have themselves to blame for the hole Miami finds itself in but doesn’t want to look past Sunday and ponder the historical aspect. “It’s never been done before but we’re still a confident bunch, even though our heads are lowered down right now,” James told reporters. “Of course, being down 3-1 and losing two straight games at home, that’s just human nature. But we’ve still got to go out and play on Sunday.”
ABOUT THE SPURS: Small forward Kawhi Leonard produced back-to-back stellar efforts in Miami – averaging 24.5 points and nine rebounds in the two games – but versatile Boris Diaw has also been a valuable performer since San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich inserted him into the starting lineup for Game 3. Diaw had a solid all-around game with eight points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 and is averaging 6.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the series. “He knows what’s going on most all the time,” Popovich told reporters. “At the offensive end he’s a passer. He understands mismatches. He knows time and score. At the defensive end, he knows when to help. He’s active. So he just helps the whole team have a better IQ, I think.”
TRENDS:
*Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
*Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 8-3 in Heat last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
*Under is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of Covers users are backing the Heat +6.
Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-6, 196)
The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from their fifth NBA title and can claim their first championship since 2007 when they host the Miami Heat in Sunday’s Game 5. San Antonio rolled to back-to-back dominating wins in Miami to take a 3-1 series lead and is in good shape when you consider no NBA team has ever recovered from that deficit in NBA Finals play. The Spurs’ three victories are by an average of 18.3 points.
Heat standout LeBron James was among the stunned players over how easily San Antonio dismantled Miami the past two games. “I mean, they smashed us,” James told reporters. “Two straight home games, got off to awful starts. They came in and were much better than us in these two games. It’s just that simple.” Spurs veteran Tim Duncan expects a fierce effort from the Heat as San Antonio attempts to avenge last season’s finals loss to the Heat. “We’re going to use our home court and we’re going to come with the same focus that we did in these last two games, and hopefully close it out at home,” Duncan told reporters.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC
LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened at -5 before moving to -5.5 and now currently sit at -6. The total opened at 197 before being bet down to 195.5.
INJURY REPORT: N/A
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Heat hadn't lost back-to-back games in the postseason since 2012, but that string of excellence came to an abrupt halt in Game 4. Miami's role players are "M.I.A.", the Spurs' incredible depth has played a big part in their lop-sided 3-1 lead. I said after Game 2 that this series would be decided by the head coaches. Eric Spolestra is getting out-maneuvered by Gregg Popovich, who with one more coaching masterpiece will cement his legacy as one of the greatest in the history of the league." Covers Expert Nick Parsons.
ABOUT THE HEAT: James is averaging 27.5 points in the series and is very much aware that no team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals. He asserts that the players only have themselves to blame for the hole Miami finds itself in but doesn’t want to look past Sunday and ponder the historical aspect. “It’s never been done before but we’re still a confident bunch, even though our heads are lowered down right now,” James told reporters. “Of course, being down 3-1 and losing two straight games at home, that’s just human nature. But we’ve still got to go out and play on Sunday.”
ABOUT THE SPURS: Small forward Kawhi Leonard produced back-to-back stellar efforts in Miami – averaging 24.5 points and nine rebounds in the two games – but versatile Boris Diaw has also been a valuable performer since San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich inserted him into the starting lineup for Game 3. Diaw had a solid all-around game with eight points, nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 4 and is averaging 6.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the series. “He knows what’s going on most all the time,” Popovich told reporters. “At the offensive end he’s a passer. He understands mismatches. He knows time and score. At the defensive end, he knows when to help. He’s active. So he just helps the whole team have a better IQ, I think.”
TRENDS:
*Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games.
*Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 8-3 in Heat last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
*Under is 26-12 in the last 38 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of Covers users are backing the Heat +6.
