THURSDAY SO FAR (1-4)
Getting back home here are my early results....
North Carolina +6 (Lost)
Evansville Under 154 (Lost)
Notre Dame Under 137.5 (Lost)
North Carolina Under 144.5 (Lost)
Notre Dame +2 (Su Blowout Winner 82-70)
XS
Getting back home here are my early results....
North Carolina +6 (Lost)
Evansville Under 154 (Lost)
Notre Dame Under 137.5 (Lost)
North Carolina Under 144.5 (Lost)
Notre Dame +2 (Su Blowout Winner 82-70)
XS
| [h=1]College Basketball Consensus: Public Picks [/h] | | ||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Friday, March 27, 2015 | |||||||
| 7:15pm odds | (881) UCLA Bruins (882) Gonzaga Bulldogs | 3758 5018 |
| 1440 2234 |
| O3299 U1534 |
|
| 7:35pm odds | (877) North Carolina State Wolfpack (878) Louisville Cardinals | 4045 3430 |
| 1391 1324 |
| O1935 U2188 |
|
| 9:45pm odds | (883) Utah Utes (884) Duke Blue Devils | 2927 9353 |
| 1162 3692 |
| O4459 U2297 |
|
| 10:00pm odds | (885) Kent State Golden Flashes (886) N. Arizona Lumberjacks | 650 671 |
| 56 29 |
| O372 U360 |
|
| 10:07pm odds | (879) Michigan State Spartans (880) Oklahoma Sooners | 8163 2719 |
| 2873 1289 |
| O3501 U2522 |
|
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Elite Eight by jason logan
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-11, 136)
Irish’s short bench vs. Wildcats’ talent surplus
Even when Kentucky wasn’t playing its best this season, it would prevail simply because it had more talent to choose from. So if one of its starters was having an off night, a reserve would step up. John Calipari goes deep - like “fish with lights on their head” deep – down his bench and has eight players averaging more than 20 minutes of floor time per game. It’s like a relentless tide of talent, with wave after wave of 5-star recruit smashing the ball in your face.
Notre Dame doesn’t have quite as deep a talent pool. And by pool, we mean puddle. Mike Brey runs a seven-man rotation with four players racking up 32 or more minutes per game. The Irish not only are outgunned in this matchup but not having a reliable bench to turn to is A: Rough when making adjustments and B: Rough in a tournament format on short rest against a Kentucky team that presses the tempo.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 133.5)
Wildcats’ so-so shooting vs. Badgers’ battling bigs
All the attention in this NCAA rematch will be on how Arizona’s frontcourt will handle Wisconsin big Frank Kaminsky, who stomped all over the Wildcats with 28 points in last year’s Elite Eight. Arizona has the talent to tie up Frank “The Tank” and made some good adjustments on Xavier’s “Stain Train” Matt Stainbrook in the second half of Thursday’s win. So, with the heavyweights trading blows in the paint, it leaves the game to be decided on the perimeter where Arizona just hasn’t been that great.
The Wildcats have shot 14 for 41 (34 percent) in their last two games, including just 7 for 22 against the Musketeers’ pesky 1-3-1 zone. Arizona doesn’t actually try many from deep, averaging only 5.2 makes from beyond the arc per game – second lowest of all Sweet 16 programs. North Carolina put in work from distance against the Badgers, hitting eight 3-pointers, as did Oregon in their loss to Wisconsin in the Round of 32. Hell, even Coastal Carolina went 7 of 12 from range in the Round of 64. Does Arizona have the chops from downtown to do the same damage?
Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5, 129)
Spartans' mistake-free ball vs. Cardinals’ offensive inefficiency
Louisville doesn’t have the offensive firepower as past UL tournament runs and is lacking that player to create scoring chances when the shot clock gets down. The Cardinals rely heavily on points off of turnovers, causing havoc with their full court pressure, getting steals, and transitioning on offense. Louisville forced 14.1 turnovers per game on the season and have recorded 10.3 takeaways through three NCAA games.
Those chances could be few and far between with the way Michigan State is playing. The Spartans have coughed the ball up only 6.7 times per game in the tournament – a sharp decline from their season average of 11.2 turnovers. Michigan State had just five giveaways against Oklahoma – another team that depends on turnovers for transition buckets (13.4 forced per game) in the Sweet 16. As long as MSU continues to be flawless with the ball, the Cardinals will struggle to put points on the board.
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 145.5)
Bulldogs’ bevy of bigs vs. Blue Devils’ Jahlil Okafor
Duke was able to absorb a quiet games from star freshman forward Jahlil Okafor in the Sweet 16, with Utah’s formidable frontcourt presenting a tall task for the future NBA lottery pick. The Utes threw a lot of big bodies at Okafor and limited his touches, with the first-year phenom scoring just six points on 3-of-6 shooting and turning the ball over four times. The Blue Devils’ other standouts stepped up and were able to get the job done versus Utah, but face a much more talented team in the Elite Eight Sunday.
Gonzaga boasts similar size to that of Utah, with starters Przemek Karnowski (7-foot-1) and Kyle Wiltjer (6-foot-10) clogging up the key and super sub Domantas Sabonis (6-foot-10) coming off the bench. The Bulldogs, who have limited opponents to just 38.8 percent shooting in the Big Dance, will put the game back in the hands of Duke’s other four players and look to their experienced backcourt to keep the Blue Devils in check.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-11, 136)
Irish’s short bench vs. Wildcats’ talent surplus
Even when Kentucky wasn’t playing its best this season, it would prevail simply because it had more talent to choose from. So if one of its starters was having an off night, a reserve would step up. John Calipari goes deep - like “fish with lights on their head” deep – down his bench and has eight players averaging more than 20 minutes of floor time per game. It’s like a relentless tide of talent, with wave after wave of 5-star recruit smashing the ball in your face.
Notre Dame doesn’t have quite as deep a talent pool. And by pool, we mean puddle. Mike Brey runs a seven-man rotation with four players racking up 32 or more minutes per game. The Irish not only are outgunned in this matchup but not having a reliable bench to turn to is A: Rough when making adjustments and B: Rough in a tournament format on short rest against a Kentucky team that presses the tempo.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 133.5)
Wildcats’ so-so shooting vs. Badgers’ battling bigs
All the attention in this NCAA rematch will be on how Arizona’s frontcourt will handle Wisconsin big Frank Kaminsky, who stomped all over the Wildcats with 28 points in last year’s Elite Eight. Arizona has the talent to tie up Frank “The Tank” and made some good adjustments on Xavier’s “Stain Train” Matt Stainbrook in the second half of Thursday’s win. So, with the heavyweights trading blows in the paint, it leaves the game to be decided on the perimeter where Arizona just hasn’t been that great.
The Wildcats have shot 14 for 41 (34 percent) in their last two games, including just 7 for 22 against the Musketeers’ pesky 1-3-1 zone. Arizona doesn’t actually try many from deep, averaging only 5.2 makes from beyond the arc per game – second lowest of all Sweet 16 programs. North Carolina put in work from distance against the Badgers, hitting eight 3-pointers, as did Oregon in their loss to Wisconsin in the Round of 32. Hell, even Coastal Carolina went 7 of 12 from range in the Round of 64. Does Arizona have the chops from downtown to do the same damage?
Michigan State Spartans vs. Louisville Cardinals (+2.5, 129)
Spartans' mistake-free ball vs. Cardinals’ offensive inefficiency
Louisville doesn’t have the offensive firepower as past UL tournament runs and is lacking that player to create scoring chances when the shot clock gets down. The Cardinals rely heavily on points off of turnovers, causing havoc with their full court pressure, getting steals, and transitioning on offense. Louisville forced 14.1 turnovers per game on the season and have recorded 10.3 takeaways through three NCAA games.
Those chances could be few and far between with the way Michigan State is playing. The Spartans have coughed the ball up only 6.7 times per game in the tournament – a sharp decline from their season average of 11.2 turnovers. Michigan State had just five giveaways against Oklahoma – another team that depends on turnovers for transition buckets (13.4 forced per game) in the Sweet 16. As long as MSU continues to be flawless with the ball, the Cardinals will struggle to put points on the board.
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 145.5)
Bulldogs’ bevy of bigs vs. Blue Devils’ Jahlil Okafor
Duke was able to absorb a quiet games from star freshman forward Jahlil Okafor in the Sweet 16, with Utah’s formidable frontcourt presenting a tall task for the future NBA lottery pick. The Utes threw a lot of big bodies at Okafor and limited his touches, with the first-year phenom scoring just six points on 3-of-6 shooting and turning the ball over four times. The Blue Devils’ other standouts stepped up and were able to get the job done versus Utah, but face a much more talented team in the Elite Eight Sunday.
Gonzaga boasts similar size to that of Utah, with starters Przemek Karnowski (7-foot-1) and Kyle Wiltjer (6-foot-10) clogging up the key and super sub Domantas Sabonis (6-foot-10) coming off the bench. The Bulldogs, who have limited opponents to just 38.8 percent shooting in the Big Dance, will put the game back in the hands of Duke’s other four players and look to their experienced backcourt to keep the Blue Devils in check.
Saturday's NCAAB betting cheat sheet: Elite Eight by covers
Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 134)
If it feels like Wisconsin and Arizona just played each other for a berth in the Final Four, it's because they did. The Badgers and Wildcats meet in the Elite Eight for the second straight year Saturday when they face off in Los Angeles in the West Regional final. Frank Kaminsky scored 28 points - six in overtime - and added 11 rebounds as Wisconsin won last year's matchup 64-63 to lift the Badgers to their first Final Four since 2000.
That Wisconsin team was seeded No. 2 while this year's top-seeded Badgers return many of the same faces, including Kaminsky - the potential National Player of the Year - and versatile forwards Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes. Arizona was the No. 1 seed a year ago, while the current crop of second-seeded Wildcats is led by a new face in freshman swingman Stanley Johnson, who is surrounded by a familiar group of veterans. Arizona has not been to the Final Four since 2001, losing each of its last four trips by a total of seven points.
TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Wisconsin between +1 and +2, with a total of 134.
ABOUT ARIZONA (34-3 SU, 23-14 ATS, 16-21 O/U): The Wildcats carry a 14-game winning streak into Saturday as they look to build off Thursday's 68-60 triumph versus Xavier in which T.J. McConnell posted 17 points and Kaleb Tarczewski added 12 points and 12 rebounds. "The next step is a big one," Arizona coach Sean Miller said after his team shot 17-of-19 from the foul line while committing only eight turnovers. "The fact that we're playing Wisconsin ... it's almost as if we had a summer to think about it, and we have to somehow make that to our advantage." The Wildcats could benefit from more production from Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who is 4-of-16 from the field over the last two games and managed only two rebounds against Xavier after averaging 10.3 boards in the previous four contests.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (34-3 SU, 19-17-1 ATS, 17-20 O/U): The Badgers outlasted North Carolina 79-72 on Thursday as Dekker scored a career-high 23 points and grabbed 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Kaminsky contributed 19 points and averages team highs of 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds for a Wisconsin team that has scored at least 70 points in eight straight games. "These guys have been through a lot. They've seen the good runs. They've seen the bad runs," Badgers coach Bo Ryan said to the media. "But this group never gets discouraged to the point where they get down on themselves or their teammates, and that's what's fun."
TRENDS:
*Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
*Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
*Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 neutral site games.
*Under is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 Saturday games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Per Covers Consensus, 62 percent of wagers are on the Badgers.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+1.5, 134)
If it feels like Wisconsin and Arizona just played each other for a berth in the Final Four, it's because they did. The Badgers and Wildcats meet in the Elite Eight for the second straight year Saturday when they face off in Los Angeles in the West Regional final. Frank Kaminsky scored 28 points - six in overtime - and added 11 rebounds as Wisconsin won last year's matchup 64-63 to lift the Badgers to their first Final Four since 2000.
That Wisconsin team was seeded No. 2 while this year's top-seeded Badgers return many of the same faces, including Kaminsky - the potential National Player of the Year - and versatile forwards Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes. Arizona was the No. 1 seed a year ago, while the current crop of second-seeded Wildcats is led by a new face in freshman swingman Stanley Johnson, who is surrounded by a familiar group of veterans. Arizona has not been to the Final Four since 2001, losing each of its last four trips by a total of seven points.
TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
LINE HISTORY: Books opened Wisconsin between +1 and +2, with a total of 134.
ABOUT ARIZONA (34-3 SU, 23-14 ATS, 16-21 O/U): The Wildcats carry a 14-game winning streak into Saturday as they look to build off Thursday's 68-60 triumph versus Xavier in which T.J. McConnell posted 17 points and Kaleb Tarczewski added 12 points and 12 rebounds. "The next step is a big one," Arizona coach Sean Miller said after his team shot 17-of-19 from the foul line while committing only eight turnovers. "The fact that we're playing Wisconsin ... it's almost as if we had a summer to think about it, and we have to somehow make that to our advantage." The Wildcats could benefit from more production from Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who is 4-of-16 from the field over the last two games and managed only two rebounds against Xavier after averaging 10.3 boards in the previous four contests.
ABOUT WISCONSIN (34-3 SU, 19-17-1 ATS, 17-20 O/U): The Badgers outlasted North Carolina 79-72 on Thursday as Dekker scored a career-high 23 points and grabbed 10 rebounds for his first double-double of the season. Kaminsky contributed 19 points and averages team highs of 18.4 points and 8.1 rebounds for a Wisconsin team that has scored at least 70 points in eight straight games. "These guys have been through a lot. They've seen the good runs. They've seen the bad runs," Badgers coach Bo Ryan said to the media. "But this group never gets discouraged to the point where they get down on themselves or their teammates, and that's what's fun."
TRENDS:
*Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
*Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
*Under is 6-1 in Wildcats last 7 neutral site games.
*Under is 6-2 in Badgers last 8 Saturday games.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Per Covers Consensus, 62 percent of wagers are on the Badgers.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-11.5, 137)
If Kentucky didn't make a big enough statement during the first 4 1/2 months of the season, Thursday's performance put Notre Dame - and the rest of the NCAA Tournament field - on high alert. The top-seeded and undefeated Wildcats are coming off one of the most impressive wins in recent NCAA Tournament history and hope to follow up that performance when they face the Fighting Irish in Saturday's Midwest Regional final from Cleveland. The winner of this game heads to the Final Four - a concept that is much more familiar for the Wildcats than the Irish.
Kentucky went to the Final Four in 2011, won the NCAA Tournament in 2012 and finished as the national runner-up in 2014, while Notre Dame has not reached the Final Four since 1978. The third-seeded Irish shot 75 percent in the second half in Thursday's 81-70 victory over Wichita State - their eighth straight win. The Wildcats, of course, have won every game they have played since losing to Connecticut in last year's title game, but few of those wins have been more impressive than Thursday's 78-39 rout of West Virginia.
TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened at 11-point favorites before quickly moving to 11.5. The opening total of 137 has yet to move.
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (32-5 SU, 16-13 ATS, 14-13 O/U): The Irish placed four players in double figures on Thursday, led by Zach Auguste (20 points), while All-American candidate Jerian Grant chipped in nine points and 11 assists. Notre Dame is the second-best shooting team in the nation (51 percent), while five players on the team - paced by Pat Connaughton (92) - have drained at least 40 3-pointers. "I'm sure whenever it ends I'll be able to look back and (say) it's been an amazing season for us," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told reporters, adding "I don't know if we've had a more special season in the history of our basketball program."
ABOUT KENTUCKY (37-0 SU, 19-16-2 ATS, 15-22 O/U): The Wildcats became the first team to ever double-up an opponent this late in the NCAA Tournament, while their 39-point margin of victory matched a Sweet 16 record and their 39 points allowed marked the fewest given up in the Sweet 16 since 1975. Trey Lyles (14 points) and Andrew Harrison (13) led five players in double figures for Kentucky, which limited West Virginia to 24.1 percent shooting. "They were what I thought they were," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told reporters. "That's the best defensive team I think that I've ever coached against. And when they're making shots, there's nobody going to beat them."
TRENDS:
*Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
*Wildcats are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.
*Under is 13-3-1 in Fighting Irish last 17 NCAA Tournament games.
*Favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of Covers Consensus players are on the underdog Fighting Irish
If Kentucky didn't make a big enough statement during the first 4 1/2 months of the season, Thursday's performance put Notre Dame - and the rest of the NCAA Tournament field - on high alert. The top-seeded and undefeated Wildcats are coming off one of the most impressive wins in recent NCAA Tournament history and hope to follow up that performance when they face the Fighting Irish in Saturday's Midwest Regional final from Cleveland. The winner of this game heads to the Final Four - a concept that is much more familiar for the Wildcats than the Irish.
Kentucky went to the Final Four in 2011, won the NCAA Tournament in 2012 and finished as the national runner-up in 2014, while Notre Dame has not reached the Final Four since 1978. The third-seeded Irish shot 75 percent in the second half in Thursday's 81-70 victory over Wichita State - their eighth straight win. The Wildcats, of course, have won every game they have played since losing to Connecticut in last year's title game, but few of those wins have been more impressive than Thursday's 78-39 rout of West Virginia.
TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS
LINE HISTORY: Kentucky opened at 11-point favorites before quickly moving to 11.5. The opening total of 137 has yet to move.
ABOUT NOTRE DAME (32-5 SU, 16-13 ATS, 14-13 O/U): The Irish placed four players in double figures on Thursday, led by Zach Auguste (20 points), while All-American candidate Jerian Grant chipped in nine points and 11 assists. Notre Dame is the second-best shooting team in the nation (51 percent), while five players on the team - paced by Pat Connaughton (92) - have drained at least 40 3-pointers. "I'm sure whenever it ends I'll be able to look back and (say) it's been an amazing season for us," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey told reporters, adding "I don't know if we've had a more special season in the history of our basketball program."
ABOUT KENTUCKY (37-0 SU, 19-16-2 ATS, 15-22 O/U): The Wildcats became the first team to ever double-up an opponent this late in the NCAA Tournament, while their 39-point margin of victory matched a Sweet 16 record and their 39 points allowed marked the fewest given up in the Sweet 16 since 1975. Trey Lyles (14 points) and Andrew Harrison (13) led five players in double figures for Kentucky, which limited West Virginia to 24.1 percent shooting. "They were what I thought they were," West Virginia coach Bob Huggins told reporters. "That's the best defensive team I think that I've ever coached against. And when they're making shots, there's nobody going to beat them."
TRENDS:
*Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
*Wildcats are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.
*Under is 13-3-1 in Fighting Irish last 17 NCAA Tournament games.
*Favorite is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of Covers Consensus players are on the underdog Fighting Irish
| [h=1]College Basketball Consensus: Public Picks [/h] | | ||||||
| Time | Teams | ATS | Moneyline | Total | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (ET) | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | Picks | Percentage | |
| Saturday, March 28, 2015 | | ||||||
| 6:05pm odds | (513) Arizona Wildcats (514) Wisconsin Badgers | 5918 7031 |
| 2070 2949 |
| O4738 U2591 |
|
| 7:30pm odds | (515) Canisius Golden Griffins (516) NJIT Highlanders | 1026 1391 |
| 233 340 |
| O754 U506 |
|
| 8:49pm odds | (511) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (512) Kentucky Wildcats | 5436 5785 |
| 1830 2494 |
| O4230 U1900 |
|
SATURDAY (3-2)
Would have loved to see Kentucky lose Su because they couldn't cover tonight.... here are tonight's results....
Kentucky -11 (Lost)
Kentucky Over 138 (Lost 134 Points)
New Jersey Tech -2.5 (Winner)
Wisconsin +1.5 (Su Winner 85-78)
Wisconsin Over 131 (Blowout Winner 168 Points)
Later,
XS
Would have loved to see Kentucky lose Su because they couldn't cover tonight.... here are tonight's results....
Kentucky -11 (Lost)
Kentucky Over 138 (Lost 134 Points)
New Jersey Tech -2.5 (Winner)
Wisconsin +1.5 (Su Winner 85-78)
Wisconsin Over 131 (Blowout Winner 168 Points)
Later,
XS
Thanks my friend.... small winning night for me.... :toast:
