WTA Mallorca and Birmingham

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Lines haven't moved from open.

Sevastova v Maria

My numbers say Sevastova 74% which is the same as the current implied odds. The oddsmakers have adjusted Maria's stats based on the last couple of games.

It was hard to get a line on Sevastova's play as hitting the ball back a couple of times was usually enough for her to win the point.

To win Maria would have to play better than she did against Kenin and Sevastova would have to struggle to make her shots.

Its a big match for both girls so both will be feeling pressure, Sevastova looked shaky when things weren't going her way against Stosur.

Maria's coach has helped her in each game.

So this is a pass unless the lines move.

Kvitova v Rybarikova

There is small value on Rybari but not enough to risk cash on. Kvitova has been playing really well and should win 2-0. Rybari has played really well in patches but has relied on poor play from her opponents to get the wins.

So pass here as well.


So pass on this one as well.
 

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Maria ended up getting the win.

Going from the boxscore it looks like Maria outplayed Sevastova by a significant amount.

Maria's line moved out to +325 at close, so Maria would have had some value at that price.

Kvitova won 2-1 and looks like she dominated the match after losing a close first set.
 

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