WSEX Democratic futures market

[Fishhead]

If you havent placed your bets yet, now is the time.

I still like DEAN at 58(-138) slightly.

[This message was edited by FISHHEAD on January 19, 2004 at 11:24 AM.]

 

[Banned4Life]

Dean's a media invention who is imploding as we speak. And comes across as an arrogant prick to boot. People will see him as the slick talking lying ass politician that he is.

If you want to pick up some easy money buy up all the Kerry you can get your hands on.

 

[Fishhead]

I have some stock in Kerry also that I could sell right now for a profit.

However, I think his stock will rise if he pulls off an IOWA Caucus win, which the polls show him leading.

 

[Banned4Life]

Kerry and Clark will run as a team and kick Bush's lying ass back to Texas.

 

[Fishhead]

B4L- Did you just buy some of KERYY? He just spiked up $2 to $22.

DEAN down to $56(good buy).

 

[TheGeneral+]

Good luck Men. Think I will pass on this one.

 

[Fishhead]

Kerry is a small favorite to win the Caucus tonight......which should garnish him a little play on his current price.

However, this will open the door for a GREAT VALUE play on DEAN!!

Remember, Dean currently holds a 8% lead in the polls in the first primary to be held in N.H. next week.

Dean is the govorner of neighboring state Vermont and I doubt seriously he will lose in N.H.

 

[Redneckman]

Hey, banned, giving on your buddy Kucinich so soon?

 

[Banned4Life]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Hey, banned, giving on your buddy Kucinich so soon? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No, I'll be voting for him in the primary. But if you think I would bet money on him you're nuts.

With that said, don't be surprised if Dennis does much better than expected in Iowa. Word is that he and Edwards have a secret deal to swap votes if neither reaches the 15% mark in local caucuses.

 

[D2bets]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
Kerry is a small favorite to win the Caucus tonight......which should garnish him a little play on his current price.

However, this will open the door for a GREAT VALUE play on DEAN!!

Remember, Dean currently holds a 8% lead in the polls in the first primary to be held in N.H. next week.

Dean is the govorner of neighboring state Vermont and I doubt seriously he will lose in N.H.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Where is Kerry a small fav to win tonight? I've monitored tradesports and Dean has been the favorite all the way along. Right now it's Dean 43.0, Kerry 35.9, Gephardt 12.0, Edwards 10.0.

 

[Redneckman]

I think you're right, banned, Kucinich will do better than expected. I don't think Dean's true support is showing up in the Iowa polls because alot of his supporters are younger voters who don't have land line phones, pollsters don't call cell phones.

 

[D2bets]

The best organization almost always wins in Iowa, that's Dean and Gephardt. Each canididate has their bloc of voters, the key is getting the highest % of them to come out. The polls are wholly unreliable for caucuses in general, and especially this one. I still think Dean and Gephardt come in 1, 2.

 

[Fishhead]

D2bets- Most polls have Kerry winning the IOWA CAUCUS............not referring to sportsbooks.

Remember, I am talking about the Caucus, not the nomination.

I am hoping Dean wins the Caucus, cause I am loaded up on him for the nomination currently.

 

[D2bets]

I realize that, but like I said the polls are very unreliable. I thought you said he was the favorite in terms of what the markets are saying. Quite frankly I trust the markets' predictive value over the polls.

 

[Fishhead]

D2bets- For the NOMINATION Dean is favored at the sportsbooks.......NOT THE IOWA CAUCUS.

 

[D2bets]

Right now tradesports has Iowa caucus Dean 39, Kerry 38. It was 43-36 Dean earlier. And this is for Iowa only, not the overall nomination. So Dean is still a slight fav, though at this point they're basically co-favs.

 

[Fishhead]

D2bets- Thanks

I would make Kerry a VERY small favorite for the caucus.

 

[D2bets]

Fish, most "well-informed" people I've talked to today think Dean should get it done and that Gephardt is underrated at 10-1. Serious value there. He's won this thing before and there's something to be said for having the Teamsters behind you. You don't want to fvck with those people. 1) Dean 2) Gep 3) Kerry 4) Edwards

 

[Fishhead]

D2bet- Great retrospect.

Will CNN be giving the most up to date results as they happen or do you suggest another source?

Thanks

 

[D2bets]

Yeah. CNN, Fox, MSNBC. Results should start rolling in around 9-10cst and have a good idea by maybe midnight I would think.