The NFL 4th-and-1 conversion rate is 70%. If you take one fact away from Football Outsiders this week, make it that one: When a team goes for it on 4th-and-1, in non-goal-line situations, it makes it seven times out of 10.Oct 7, 2022. ..... .................................Goff threw a go-ahead 51-yard touchdown pass to Brock Wright on fourth-and-1 with 1:49 remaining, and the Lions held on for a 20-17 victory over Zach Wilson and the Jets on Sunday that kept them on pace in the NFC playoff hunt. ..70%