With initial $2000 bankroll, play $1997.94 to win $60.54 at -3300 and play $2.06 to win $2060.00 at +100000. Guaranteed profit is $58.49.
Nice work SPV! Cash in on that bad line!
However, this is not remotely as good a betting opportunity (and hence as "bad" a line) as a +120/+100 (can guarantee $95.24 with same bankroll) nor is it as good a betting opportunity (= "bad" line) as a +605/-435 (can guarantee $94.40).
So....you guessed it...this has zero relevance.
However if you want to promise to offer me +120 on all sides that should be +100 while I offer you +100000 on all events that should be -3300, let's talk....because I will bankrupt you, and quickly.
[This message was edited by SunDevil on July 01, 2003 at 07:14 PM.]
[This message was edited by SunDevil on July 01, 2003 at 07:16 PM.]
Nice work SPV! Cash in on that bad line!
However, this is not remotely as good a betting opportunity (and hence as "bad" a line) as a +120/+100 (can guarantee $95.24 with same bankroll) nor is it as good a betting opportunity (= "bad" line) as a +605/-435 (can guarantee $94.40).
So....you guessed it...this has zero relevance.
However if you want to promise to offer me +120 on all sides that should be +100 while I offer you +100000 on all events that should be -3300, let's talk....because I will bankrupt you, and quickly.
[This message was edited by SunDevil on July 01, 2003 at 07:14 PM.]
[This message was edited by SunDevil on July 01, 2003 at 07:16 PM.]
BTW I don't blame you,
as a former resident of Manzanita Hall,
I know first hand just how poor the math dept. is at ASU, in fact freshmen level math is the same as what they teach in 5th grade in the east coast elem. schools, I kid you not. See though, I pursued my advanced degree at a real university, so I can't possibly blame you.
as a former resident of Manzanita Hall,
I know first hand just how poor the math dept. is at ASU, in fact freshmen level math is the same as what they teach in 5th grade in the east coast elem. schools, I kid you not. See though, I pursued my advanced degree at a real university, so I can't possibly blame you.
Banned, thanks for the support, but (unfortunately for me as I will now never hear the end of it) he has a point.
My analysis presumes that our ficitonal bettor is completely risk-averse and simply seeks to lock in the maximum guaranteed profit. This results in him (as the lines inflate) laying a higher percentage of his fixed bankroll on the favorite (where he is only receiving the "fair line"). If he has the knowledge of which side is truly the right side of the line he is made DRAMATICALLY better off in the long run (i.e. large sample space) by not seeking a fixed profit, but instead taking a greater position on the "bad line". All my previous analyses on this topic should stipulate that "For a completely risk-averse bettor...blah blah blah".
Hence SPV's arrogance is justified in this instance and I am the weakest link...
...but despit all that, I still won't take credit for being a SunDevil. SPV, it's a state of residence, not a state of (feeble) mind.
My analysis presumes that our ficitonal bettor is completely risk-averse and simply seeks to lock in the maximum guaranteed profit. This results in him (as the lines inflate) laying a higher percentage of his fixed bankroll on the favorite (where he is only receiving the "fair line"). If he has the knowledge of which side is truly the right side of the line he is made DRAMATICALLY better off in the long run (i.e. large sample space) by not seeking a fixed profit, but instead taking a greater position on the "bad line". All my previous analyses on this topic should stipulate that "For a completely risk-averse bettor...blah blah blah".
Hence SPV's arrogance is justified in this instance and I am the weakest link...
...but despit all that, I still won't take credit for being a SunDevil. SPV, it's a state of residence, not a state of (feeble) mind.
