BTW: I won't be shocked by a pullback tomorrow after a +300 today. Of course, it doesn't mean much to me anyways, since I'm not a proponent of market timing.
I've seen you predict 10,000 on many an occasion. How about some market action?
I've seen you predict 10,000 on many an occasion. How about some market action?
It's in editing now
Willie I like you but someone who has been as wrong as you have been about the overall economy for the last year shouldn't be crowing about a day in the stock market, a weak proxy for the overall economy. Especially when a weak currency means a status quo market is one where you are actually losing value. Inflation adjust the stock market and you won't like what you see.
But maybe this will help as well. This is from last week but the premise should be easy to see as well as the fact that today is another one of these rallies.
The Dow has enjoyed a 452-point two-day bounce that seems to have a lot of folks very excited that the bottom has been turned in. Since this bear market began a year ago, we have seen no fewer than six of these flashy 400+ point two day rallies – these happen in bear markets, hardly ever in bull markets. In fact, in the 2003-2007 cyclical bull run, not once did the Dow manage to turn in a two-day advance of over 400 points.
To reiterate – these wild moves are characteristic of bear phases, not bull markets. As for the financials, take note that 9 of the largest 20 up-days of all time have occurred … In 2008! This was no different than what we saw during the tech wreck – 19 of the largest 20 rallies in Nasdaq actually happened during the 2000-02 bust. Ditto for the Nikkei – 17 of its top 20 sessions occurred during its secular bear market than began in 1990.
But maybe this will help as well. This is from last week but the premise should be easy to see as well as the fact that today is another one of these rallies.
The Dow has enjoyed a 452-point two-day bounce that seems to have a lot of folks very excited that the bottom has been turned in. Since this bear market began a year ago, we have seen no fewer than six of these flashy 400+ point two day rallies – these happen in bear markets, hardly ever in bull markets. In fact, in the 2003-2007 cyclical bull run, not once did the Dow manage to turn in a two-day advance of over 400 points.
To reiterate – these wild moves are characteristic of bear phases, not bull markets. As for the financials, take note that 9 of the largest 20 up-days of all time have occurred … In 2008! This was no different than what we saw during the tech wreck – 19 of the largest 20 rallies in Nasdaq actually happened during the 2000-02 bust. Ditto for the Nikkei – 17 of its top 20 sessions occurred during its secular bear market than began in 1990.
yeah tech bubble burst set many a record for one day rallies in tech stocks VT
this is nothing new
acting like a bear
we aren't kind we play with your emotions
give you hope and than go on a mauling rampage right when you get your spirits up
speaking of secular bear VT
think one starting in 2000 taking a longer term view of things......
and inflation adjusted makes it look even worse than it looks at the surface since 2000
this is nothing new
acting like a bear
we aren't kind we play with your emotions
give you hope and than go on a mauling rampage right when you get your spirits up
speaking of secular bear VT
think one starting in 2000 taking a longer term view of things......
and inflation adjusted makes it look even worse than it looks at the surface since 2000
VT, wrong about what? You mean the market didn't grow six consecutive years? with jobs growing almost that entire time frame and the economy almost always at full employment? We haven't even had one lousy recession since W passed his first budget.
Now, I don't espouse to that POTUS micro managing the economy stuff, but for those of you that do, that's a pretty impressive resume in very trying times.
I know we're in a mortgage crisis now, with only 96% of Americans paying their mortgage on time, we have unemployment at 5.7 % (is that still the lowest in the world?) and our economy only grew at something like 1.9% last quarter, not too bad for a down cycle, eh?
As for crowing about the markets, there have been many a big day and I didn't post about anything, while the doom and gloomers post everything negative they can find under any rock. I'm sorry if I bucked the trend.
Oh, and did I mention the world wide price of oil put a serious anchor on our economy?
Now, I don't espouse to that POTUS micro managing the economy stuff, but for those of you that do, that's a pretty impressive resume in very trying times.
I know we're in a mortgage crisis now, with only 96% of Americans paying their mortgage on time, we have unemployment at 5.7 % (is that still the lowest in the world?) and our economy only grew at something like 1.9% last quarter, not too bad for a down cycle, eh?
As for crowing about the markets, there have been many a big day and I didn't post about anything, while the doom and gloomers post everything negative they can find under any rock. I'm sorry if I bucked the trend.
Oh, and did I mention the world wide price of oil put a serious anchor on our economy?
Willie, you can't believe the government stats at all. Pay them no attention. First off, we are in a recession right now, and have been since winter time. It is getting worse, not better. They can say we grew all they want. Do you actually feel the economy is improving right now? Any growth we've seen is b/c our currency is dog shit. Meanwhile any earnings you make don't afford nearly the goods they did just a few years ago.
And unemployment is a terrible figure. How many people stopped looking for a job? How about a birth/death model which means we need about 110k new jobs a month just to keep up. When we are losing jobs, tack on 110k each month and you will get a better view of unemployment. I am not here to blame Bush for all of this. I would say the Federal Reserve is the one to blame for what is coming. And the fact is there is no way out of it.
And oil is going higher in my mind simply b/c the dollar will continue lower. The idea that 118 dollar oil is reason to celebrate makes my head spin.
And unemployment is a terrible figure. How many people stopped looking for a job? How about a birth/death model which means we need about 110k new jobs a month just to keep up. When we are losing jobs, tack on 110k each month and you will get a better view of unemployment. I am not here to blame Bush for all of this. I would say the Federal Reserve is the one to blame for what is coming. And the fact is there is no way out of it.
And oil is going higher in my mind simply b/c the dollar will continue lower. The idea that 118 dollar oil is reason to celebrate makes my head spin.
Oil dropping $ 28 or 20% in a very short time frame is reason for optimism, not celebration.
Considering oil and all the negative coverage on the economy during an election year, the economy has been pretty resilient.
Seriously, I still don't know somebody who can't find a job. Although business is off for just about all of my clients, nobody is starving and nobody is going out of business.
It really is about perspective and balance.
Considering oil and all the negative coverage on the economy during an election year, the economy has been pretty resilient.
Seriously, I still don't know somebody who can't find a job. Although business is off for just about all of my clients, nobody is starving and nobody is going out of business.
It really is about perspective and balance.
