wow. Gallup Obama 52 McCain 41

[gtc08]

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report shows Barack Obama with a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain.

These results, based on Oct. 5-7 polling, are the best for Obama during the campaign, both in terms of his share of the vote and the size of his lead over McCain. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Nearly all interviews in today's report were conducted before Tuesday night's town hall style debate in Nashville. Any movement in voter preferences as a result of this debate will be apparent in coming days.
Voter preferences seem to have stabilized for the moment, as Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in each of the last three individual nights of polling.
Concern about the economy seems to be playing to Obama's advantage; he overtook McCain when the financial crisis worsened in the middle of September, and his strong showing today coincides with the worst rating of the economy this year (59% of Americans describe current economic conditions as "poor"). -- Jeff Jones

(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)

 

[Risk44]

He is pulling away.... now lets hear from all the Pubs how it will be close... and see what polls they can produce that give them a glimmer.. LOL

 

[TTinCO]

<TABLE class=surveyResultsTable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=SurveyQuestion width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=3>Who won the presidential debate between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama?</TD></TR><TR><TD class="SurveyAnswer sTitleChoice" width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>Choice </TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sTitleVotes" width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>Votes </TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sTitlePercent" width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>Percentage of 46558 Votes </TD></TR><TR><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoice1" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>Barack Obama won.</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoiceVotes1" align=middle width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>30816</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerPercent1" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>

66%</TD></TR><TR><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoice2" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>John McCain won.</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoiceVotes2" align=middle width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>12245</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerPercent2" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>

26%</TD></TR><TR><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoice3" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>I'm not sure.</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoiceVotes3" align=middle width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>1243</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerPercent3" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>

3%</TD></TR><TR><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoice4" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>I didn't watch.</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerChoiceVotes4" align=middle width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>2254</TD><TD class="SurveyAnswer sAnswerPercent4" align=left width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff>

5%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

:nohead:

 

[CHOPTALK]

This thing is so over.

 

[Willie99]

Gee, there's a poll of LVs that has it at one, but the moonbats choose to cite one poll that has the biggest lead, using the less reliable RVs, and declare it over.

Brilliance at work

:nohead:
General Election: McCain vs. Obama

RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes
Polling Data

<table class="data"><tbody><tr><th class="noCenter">Poll</th><th class="date">Date</th><th>Sample</th><th>Obama (D)</th><th>McCain (R)</th><th class="spread">Spread</th></tr><tr class="rcpAvg"><td class="noCenter">RCP Average</td><td>10/01 - 10/07</td><td>--</td><td>49.0</td><td>43.9</td><td class="spread">Obama +5.1</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Gallup Tracking</td><td>10/05 - 10/07</td><td>2747 RV</td><td>52</td><td>41</td><td class="spread">Obama +11</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Rasmussen Tracking</td><td>10/05 - 10/07</td><td>3000 LV</td><td>51</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +6</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking</td><td>10/05 - 10/07</td><td>1220 LV</td><td>47</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +2</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Hotline/FD Tracking</td><td>10/05 - 10/07</td><td>904 LV</td><td>45</td><td>44</td><td class="spread">Obama +1</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">GW/Battleground Tracking</td><td>10/02 - 10/07</td><td>800 LV</td><td>49</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +4</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Ipsos/McClatchy</td><td>10/02 - 10/06</td><td>858 RV</td><td>47</td><td>40</td><td class="spread">Obama +7</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl</td><td>10/04 - 10/05</td><td>658 RV</td><td>49</td><td>43</td><td class="spread">Obama +6</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">CBS News</td><td>10/03 - 10/05</td><td>616 LV</td><td>48</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +3</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td class="noCenter">CNN</td><td>10/03 - 10/05</td><td>694 LV</td><td>53</td><td>45</td><td class="spread">Obama +8</td></tr><tr><td class="noCenter">Democracy Corps (D)</td><td>10/01 - 10/05</td><td>1000 LV</td><td>49</td><td>46</td><td class="spread">Obama +3</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Risk44]

Gee, there's a poll of LVs that has it at one, but the moonbats choose to cite one poll that has the biggest lead, using the less reliable RVs, and declare it over.

Brilliance at work

:nohead:
General Election: McCain vs. Obama

RCP Electoral Map | Changes in Electoral Count | Map With No Toss Ups | No Toss Up Changes
Polling Data

<TABLE class=data><TBODY><TR><TH class=noCenter>Poll</TH><TH class=date>Date</TH><TH>Sample</TH><TH>Obama (D)</TH><TH>McCain (R)</TH><TH class=spread>Spread</TH></TR><TR class=rcpAvg><TD class=noCenter>RCP Average</TD><TD>10/01 - 10/07</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>49.0</TD><TD>43.9</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +5.1</TD></TR><TR class=alt><TD class=noCenter>Gallup Tracking</TD><TD>10/05 - 10/07</TD><TD>2747 RV</TD><TD>52</TD><TD>41</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +11</TD></TR><TR><TD class=noCenter>Rasmussen Tracking</TD><TD>10/05 - 10/07</TD><TD>3000 LV</TD><TD>51</TD><TD>45</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +6</TD></TR><TR class=alt><TD class=noCenter>Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking</TD><TD>10/05 - 10/07</TD><TD>1220 LV</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>45</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +2</TD></TR><TR><TD class=noCenter>Hotline/FD Tracking</TD><TD>10/05 - 10/07</TD><TD>904 LV</TD><TD>45</TD><TD>44</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +1</TD></TR><TR class=alt><TD class=noCenter>GW/Battleground Tracking</TD><TD>10/02 - 10/07</TD><TD>800 LV</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>45</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +4</TD></TR><TR><TD class=noCenter>Ipsos/McClatchy</TD><TD>10/02 - 10/06</TD><TD>858 RV</TD><TD>47</TD><TD>40</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +7</TD></TR><TR class=alt><TD class=noCenter>NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl</TD><TD>10/04 - 10/05</TD><TD>658 RV</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>43</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +6</TD></TR><TR><TD class=noCenter>CBS News</TD><TD>10/03 - 10/05</TD><TD>616 LV</TD><TD>48</TD><TD>45</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +3</TD></TR><TR class=alt><TD class=noCenter>CNN</TD><TD>10/03 - 10/05</TD><TD>694 LV</TD><TD>53</TD><TD>45</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +8</TD></TR><TR><TD class=noCenter>Democracy Corps (D)</TD><TD>10/01 - 10/05</TD><TD>1000 LV</TD><TD>49</TD><TD>46</TD><TD class=spread>Obama +3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Willie - We have been using the Gallup poll everyday as a standard on this forum... Even when Mccain was ahead - Tocco posted it daily...

 

[Willie99]

Willie - We have been using the Gallup poll everyday as a standard on this forum... Even when Mccain was ahead - Tocco posted it daily...

RVs is never ever the standard, it's a shell game. It's LVs or nothing.

In a poll of polls using LVs, the lead is 3.86%

 

[gtc08]

gallup and 538 are the 2 sites to look at.

 

[TTinCO]

Denial is not a river in Africa.

 

[Willie99]

RVs are far less accurate. If you don't know that, I can't help you.

 

[gtc08]

willie, your trying to hard to rationalize for your boy. you have yet to admit your guy mccain is losing.

 

[cincy_]

We need to drop the LV vs. RV bullshit ... they both have their advantages.

Distinguishing between RV's and LV's is basically a beginner's way of looking at polls ... it makes them sound like they know something when they really have no clue.

Do people run these polls using RV because they don't know that LV's are better???? The Wall Street Journal must be dumb to still use RV, I guess.

Check out this paper that looked at the 2000 election and the polling.

http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/68/4/588?ijkey=053EosjdTO0oc&keytype=ref


Summary (in simple English):

1. Using "Likely voters" doesn't account for temporary levels of enthusiasm.
2. Using registered voters provides a trend line with less variance and greater stability
3. "Likely voters" should only be used a day or two ahead of Election Day.

Example: Even if you're a die-hard McCain supporter right now, you might say "The fuck with voting" when called by a pollster ... and that pollster might put you in the UNLIKELY category. You might go out to vote on November 4th but you're pissed right now and think you won't.

So by using "likely voters", the polls could fluctuate even when NOBODY has changed his/her mind but people might have decreased levels of enthusiasm. In other words, by using "likely voters", you're letting enthusiasm become a factor ... and enthusiasm can change if it's polled more than a few days before the election.

 

[cincy_]

RVs are far less accurate. If you don't know that, I can't help you.

... and how do you know this??????

If you think LV's are more accurate (and you think it's obvious), maybe you should write the Wall Street Journal and tell them that they should use LV's.

"You need to know what you don't know" - Donald Dumbsfeld

 

[Uno]

damn.

 

[BetIt]

... and how do you know this??????

If you think LV's are more accurate (and you think it's obvious), maybe you should write the Wall Street Journal and tell them that their polls are useless.

HAHA

Interesting article you posted a few above...good read

 

[BetIt]

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

composition of all polls

pollster.com is pretty good to see trend lines of all polls

 

[cincy_]

Another thing about ALL the polls is that there is no standard on how to deal with LEANS.

In one poll, they might be counting LEANS OBAMA as OBAMA.

In another poll, they might be counting LEANS OBAMA as undecided.

Remember in CA during the primary how some poll had more than 20% undecided when most other polls had undecideds in the single digits? Wonder why?

 

[primetime21+]

While some polls have it close and some have it as a big obama lead, there is nothing shows it close and all electoral maps show this as being a landslide.

 

[3peet]

So when will FauxNoise admit this race is over? (nice avi prime! LOL)

 

[RollTide+]

The Greek.com Politics
2008 US Election - Odds to win
Political Party to have the next USA President
101 Democrat -480
102 Republican +360
103 Any Other Result +5250