Would you form an opinion of a poster if he posted his plays and lost first 10 games

[Iceman]

This is one of my biggest pet peeves on the forums. Most people will start arguing and someone will say will you post your plays, etc.. I think 99.9% of all posters would form an opinion (me included unfortunately) that this guy doesnt know what he is doing and is an overall loser if he started out 0-10.

I have done fairly well the past 2 yeras and I have a few streaks of 10 losses in a row or more. Stretches of 3-17, 2-15, stuff like that happens all the time over 1,000 plays (which is one months worth on average for me).

It doesnt have to do with being ice cold either. I think if someone sarted out 48-52 after 100 plays instantly most wouldnt look twice as the guy knowing what he is doing.

Maybe some math geek can clear this up a little better for us. Just like any little contests that goes on what is the significance of a poster posting 100 plays and seeing if the guy wins or not, it should mean almost close to nothing in the big scope of things.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Depends on how he went about it...if he is using bold letters and using words like lock and guarantee, forget about it....everyone goes on bad runs, even our resident handicapper Ace-Ace...

 

[totalsquare]

since you're an advantage player, most of yours plays aren't gonna be at widely available numbers anyways..so the average poster won't get those numbers..that's where most of the negative opinions will come from...

 

[bellyputter]

since you're an advantage player, most of yours plays aren't gonna be at WIDELY AVAILABLE NUMBERS anyways..so the average poster won't get those numbers..that's where most of the negative opinions will come from...

Great post! The reason I rarely post picks, is I would be impossible to follow. People who post unattainable #s are doing the forum a disservice. Same goes for buying worthless pts to pad the won/loss record. Good Luck

 

[ACE-ACE]

Iceman...its like OUR Tigers...they were down 0-10...now they are in the running:toast:AA

 

[Waz]

This is one of my biggest pet peeves on the forums. Most people will start arguing and someone will say will you post your plays, etc.. I think 99.9% of all posters would form an opinion (me included unfortunately) that this guy doesnt know what he is doing and is an overall loser if he started out 0-10.

I have done fairly well the past 2 yeras and I have a few streaks of 10 losses in a row or more. Stretches of 3-17, 2-15, stuff like that happens all the time over 1,000 plays (which is one months worth on average for me).

It doesnt have to do with being ice cold either. I think if someone sarted out 48-52 after 100 plays instantly most wouldnt look twice as the guy knowing what he is doing.

Maybe some math geek can clear this up a little better for us. Just like any little contests that goes on what is the significance of a poster posting 100 plays and seeing if the guy wins or not, it should mean almost close to nothing in the big scope of things.

10 is much too small of a sample size to gauge a capper. To be statistically significant, within 2 standard deviations (95% confidence leve), you would need a couple of hundred plays. Even then, there is that 5% of uncertainty. If you want to go 3 or 4 standard deviations (or more), you could be talking over 1,000 plays.

Moral of the story, you can't make any conclusions based on anyone's record here unless you've followed them for a couple of years. However, I tend to base my opinion of someone's plays according to what they say, and how they explain their "edge" in a certain game or situation. You can learn a lot more in the context of their posts, than you can learn in just blindly following them.