Let's say price is roughly the same so we can take it being an economic decision out of it. Then let's say it is safe, because obviously nobody is going to buy it they don't feel 100% safe (even if accident rates are significantly lower than humans, people would still rather their lives be in their own hands)
Yeah, I think when you ask people they immediately think of just sitting there vs driving and it's like eh whatever, I like driving. But then when you realize what else you could be doing in terms of laptop, smartphone, tablet, TV, porn etc. It's like hmmmmm, so you're saying it is 100% safe?
It will probably take generations before people would get over the fear factor.
Even if like you say the accident rate is even half that of normal transportation.
I would imagine all the news outlets will have major stories of each accident the first 20 years or so to give the public the false perception that auto driving is more dangerous then regular driving .
Because accidents today don't make the news. But you can bet accidents
From autonomous transportation will make headlines .
Statistics don't mean much to some people.
Perfect example of that is people refusing to fly even though statistically it's the safest form of transportation in the world
Even if like you say the accident rate is even half that of normal transportation.
I would imagine all the news outlets will have major stories of each accident the first 20 years or so to give the public the false perception that auto driving is more dangerous then regular driving .
Because accidents today don't make the news. But you can bet accidents
From autonomous transportation will make headlines .
Statistics don't mean much to some people.
Perfect example of that is people refusing to fly even though statistically it's the safest form of transportation in the world
There is polling that shows around 1/2 the population would embrace them already. So once the technology is available and people see how effective it is, that number should rise. Granted there will be media sensationalism that scares people but that doesn't mean it still can't be an available product that compromises 10-20% of the automotive market while that is being sorted out.
For them to even get on the road the accident rate wouldn't be 1/2 of normal transport either, it would be like 1% to maybe 5% max. They would have no chance of getting on the road at anything over that # because of safety concerns.
But to answer your question yes I would because I do a lot of long distance driving in the middle of the night 6 hrs+ weekly.
It would be a great opportunity to get some sleep.
Also I'm sure once this happens there will be a new paradigm when it comes to riding.
This would mean complete redesigns of the vehicle themselves in the interior.
Im sure beds would come standard in most of them.
The hotel industry would take a major hit from people who travel by vehicle at distances more then 8 hrs or so.
It would be a great opportunity to get some sleep.
Also I'm sure once this happens there will be a new paradigm when it comes to riding.
This would mean complete redesigns of the vehicle themselves in the interior.
Im sure beds would come standard in most of them.
The hotel industry would take a major hit from people who travel by vehicle at distances more then 8 hrs or so.
There would be no seats in the middle of the interior but rather 4 seats facing each other so much more overall room. There would be room for TVs and other electronics. Then for someone who wants to sleep in one, I'm sure various design setups would be available if it scaled.
People will obviously be skeptical at first and there will be a lag time between when they are initially ready and then when they are regulated and accepted but it will definitely be far safer. What is the most unsafe aspect of driving? The driver.
Yeah, there is no way it even gets on the road until it is like 2% of human driving accidents at most.
I think the first level of adoption would be city cabs, old folks communities, college campuses. Basically areas where everything is centralized then eventually it would scale out to mass market.
No clue when it will be ready but listening to some of the Google execs, it sounds like sooner than later.
My guess is for trucks they could possibly have a designated lane at first and there might be some infrastructure improvements needed, but from everything I've read they should be able to drive in cities with regular cars. They still need a lot of advancements in AI and software to make them 100% safe in conditions like rain, snow, sleet, ice, bad human drivers, etc. Obviously they need to react perfectly to situations as fast as humans.
Why the first place they are in might just require something like point A to point B with limited amount of obstacles.
That is the interesting part.
I can't really predict this to a T but it is possible if they really scale that car ownership won't even be needed. You would just call uber or whatever company has 1, it comes to your house in 3 minutes and takes you wherever you want at 10-20% the cost of a taxi now since there is no driver or fuel costs (I think they should be able to run on electric since with a centralized fleet you could just put charging stations there and like I've said I think battery tech will begin to improve rapidly) Then you don't have to pay car insurance/oil changes/maintenance/car note or upfront payment/etc. For someone who needs the thing 6 hours a day a purchase may be better, but for the majority of people, car ownership might just make 0 sense.
So while some would want to own them, I'd think it would be far, far more economical to go the rental route for a large # of people.
I think you are underestimating the number of people who would need the actual car unless it's extremely feasible to rent one for 6 hrs.
For day to things yes what you say makes sense.
But there will always be times for almost everyone where you need to go somewhere that's not quite far enough to fly and not close enough to use public.
And if you do rent there would be a lot of 1 way trips.
Say you go somewhere that is 6 hrs away but you are going to stay there for several days.
I guess In that situation the rental car would drive back to its original location empty .
Or maybe a large national company would have holding stations for these types of trips.
Say you leave New York to Chicago but you will stay in Chicago for 5 days.
You can use other transportation once you reach Chicago.
Instead of the vehicle driving all the way back to New York it can stay at a holding station owned by the same company to be used for someone in Chicago .
Very interesting but I do think many people would need to outright own the vehicle .
For day to things yes what you say makes sense.
But there will always be times for almost everyone where you need to go somewhere that's not quite far enough to fly and not close enough to use public.
And if you do rent there would be a lot of 1 way trips.
Say you go somewhere that is 6 hrs away but you are going to stay there for several days.
I guess In that situation the rental car would drive back to its original location empty .
Or maybe a large national company would have holding stations for these types of trips.
Say you leave New York to Chicago but you will stay in Chicago for 5 days.
You can use other transportation once you reach Chicago.
Instead of the vehicle driving all the way back to New York it can stay at a holding station owned by the same company to be used for someone in Chicago .
Very interesting but I do think many people would need to outright own the vehicle .
