Would the Mathematics warrent Such a Play?

[SportSavant]

I am sitting here staring at these numbers & wondering wether this is a profitable proposition or not...

Pinny has the NYM/CIN game Under 9 + 141...

I can get over 8.5 -110 elsewhere....

QUESTION: what would the variation in vig be for you to consider betting Over 8.5 & Under 9 knowing that if the game lands on 9 you will lose Money but Any Other Total will make you Money....OF course the Times you lose you will lose way more but will the winners overcome it? What would the variation in the vig have to be for this to become a winning proposition...

 

[lander]

I think you got something backwards.

 

[Woody0]

Christ SS! over 6.5% profit and the chance to push on the 9 for even more. These lines don't grow on trees.

 

[lander]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Woody0:
Chris SS! over 6.5% profit and the chance to push on the 9 for even more. These lines don't grow on trees.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The 8.5 will be canceled (assuming they have a pulse)

 

[wilheim]

Final result;

Under 9 runs:
Plus 1.41
minus 1.10 Net +.31

Over 9 runs:
Plus 1.00
Minus 1.00 Net 0.00

exactly 9 runs:

Push net -0.00

Quite a bit of risk for the single scenario plus return of 31 cents, but worth some consideration.


wil.

[This message was edited by wilheim on June 29, 2004 at 09:21 PM.]

 

[Woody0]

Under 9 +141; over 8.5 -110.

To return $100; bet $41.49 under 9 at +141 and $52.38 over 8.5 at -110.

Under 9 runs lose $52.38, win $58.50, net +$6.12

Over 9 runs lose $41.49, win $47.62, net +$6.13

Exactly 9 runs, no loss win $47.62, net +47.62.

Overall returns a guaranteed $6.13 on $93.37 investment (>6.5%) and a chance of a $47.62 return (>50%)

Lines like these don't grow on trees.

 

[monicus]

6.5% Is a great one day return but what you have to ask yourself if the probability of a 9 coming is less than 6.5%. And I say no way. 95% of all baseball games fall between 3-15 (best guess). 9 is the most probable outcome. You have to say that if this game was played 20 times and 9 would only come up 1 or 0 times it is a good bet. Are you sure you can say that?

 

[Woody0]

Reread my post. This bet CANNOT lose.

 

[blueedwards]

reread lander's post...yes it can lose.

 

[SportSavant]

F UCK!!!

I am sorry...

I cauzed alot of Confusion....

I meant to Post Over 9.5 -110 with Under 9 + 141....

(I accidentally posted 8.5 in my Question...Lander was right when he said something was wrong....)

Right after posting I left the house to go see farenheight 911 But it was sold out...

Thats what I get for going to the movies on Cheapo Tuesdays...

The question was meant to ask wether the variation in the VIG -110/+141 was enough to offset the possibility of the game landing on 9.

 

[blueedwards]

so, you really made two mistakes today:

- posting a bad line
- trying to see a moronic film based on lies and propaganda made by a fat-ass who can't even come up with an original title.

 

[SportSavant]

Blue, I havenet seen the film yet...but I am sure it is NOT all lies...Only a moron would say it was an UNBIASED film but I will read from the left & I will read from the right...& I will form my own Opinion....

But it is not ALL propoganda & Lies...maybe some of it...not ALL of it...

 

[blueedwards]

maybe so. the weird thing is that there are people in this country willing to die so that fat bastard can keep his right to make that movie. so, in a way, i guess its kind of cool. moronic...but cool.

 

[lander]

Blue,
Have you seen the film? Or are you resorting to intolerance by jumping to stereotypical conslusions?

btw - Good to see you.

Did I tell you the story about Church? I went for a Christening and forgot all about the collection ... so when the basket comes to me all I have are 20's ...

so I dropped the big guy a 20 and low and behold my middle lands that night ....

I'm not sure if it was devine intervention, but it got me thinking on a tanget - do you think the old timers used to fade Job like we do DennisTheMan?? lol

 

[UncleMoneybags]

I don't even think that a moron would say it's unbiased as Mr. Moore has repeatedly stated the film's intent. How it's considered a documentary and not a vote for Kerry ad is beyond me. Best case scenario is when they debate one of them falls into the other and thus they incapacitate each other. Everyone wins!

When you have to edit constantly to make your point, that should get a rise out of your BS meter.

 

[lander]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Uncle Moneybags:
When you have to edit constantly to make your point, that should get a rise out of your BS meter.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

No wonder I've been seeing so many
[This message was edited by General 10:32]

 

[Woody0]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by SportSavant:
I cauzed alot of Confusion....

I meant to Post Over 9.5 -110 with Under 9 + 141....
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

After your talk about a local I thought you might have found your own little goldmine.

BTW see the movie it has some Rick Mercer qualities.