Would anyone care to monitor a DOG system for a few days

SSI · Apr 7, 2004

Im a handicapper and money manager first and foremost but i love tinkering with systems, especially at the start of a new MLB season. I guess one always dreams of finding the elusive one that will kick out the great ROI without all the work of handicapping.. Well, ive had one going since the sunday night of bos/balt and the results so far have been ok.. Its showing a record of 5-4 (+2.45 units), now i know the dogs have been hot and lots of people here (including myself) have made some good money on this early MLB season but ive done a little number crunching and back testing and this one appears to hold some promise.. I just felt like sharing this, dont know why.. Im not going into any detail about it, in case it flops over the next few days.. I will simple post it here and we can examine it for a while. This is merely an example and not meant to be any advice given. Im down with a small bet for me on this (in case it works).. well ive rambled enough..

5-4 (+2.45 units YTD)

Todays Plays:

Montreal (+1.50). Laying 1 unit to win 1.50
Reds +1.5 (+1.05). Laying 1 to win 1.05 units.
Clev (+1.50). Laying 1.5 units to win 2.25.

Thats it for today and this is merely an exercise out of boredom, waiting on tonights action. The lines were from very early this morning at Pinny..

oldmanTED · Apr 7, 2004

SSI:

Just having a little fun. Take the Giants in the previous two games as heavy dogs, tonight as well, and all season long.

SSI · Apr 7, 2004

yes, i thought about you ted when they won those 2 games.. my braves got their butt kicked last night, we need a nice outing from hampton tonight..

the above system is about 50% mechanical, 40% handicapping and 10% line value. dont really think its common for a system to have all 3 factors and another big part of it, is money management.. id never even attempt one that didnt adhere to money management..

Big night tonight ted, MLB, NBA and the NHL playoffs..

PatPatriot · Apr 7, 2004

Not sure, but it looks like your playing a system similar to mine.A little advice would be keep a close look on a teams current form when they get into the nuts of the season.Because it sucks when it turns on you.

SSI · Apr 7, 2004

Patriot, it could be similiar to yours but it cant be totally like it because it involves at least 40% handicapping, so its not a cut and dried (mechanical) system.. It has parameters and takes something from several different systems.. ive been working on this since last friday and have spent several hours on it.. Im not going to comment on it because, like you said (it could turn on you).. its by no means simply taking every dog, and does involve some line shopping and big allowance for going with the +1.5 runs a lot of the times.. Also should show a real nice return with a 50-50 record..

SSI · Apr 7, 2004

I will add this however, if it were to work, as the season goes on, less plays should be generated..

NEWPORT · Apr 7, 2004

I respect all on this THREAD, and a few others. I have posted 3 straight years on this forum that the first 20 games are DOG days of beauty in Baseball. I have always made money in this section of the year. Especially offshore, where a +200 Baseball is not even fair sometimes. The reason is ODDSMAKERS, they cannot change their philosophy of Pitcher Line Making. Because by the end of the season, minus 3-5 pitchers, their lines will make sense for the top teir pitchers.

ASK ANY BOOK MANAGER, (TONY AT 5DIMES) AND HE WILL TELL YOU.....THEY ARE AFRAID AT THE BOOK IN THESE FIRST 20 GAMES. They can get killed on big parlay playes. This is the same as week 14-16 of the NFL Season, and the potential for DOGS to come in. Week 17 is usually a junk week, but 15 and 16 the past three years have paid royally in dog outright winners.

SSI, I think the SYSTEM is more in the following a segment of a season, then a team by team or day by day system. Just my thoughts

NEWPORT

[This message was edited by NEWPORT on April 07, 2004 at 10:14 PM.]

SSI · Apr 7, 2004

Newport, i know you like dogs and i very much understand and agree what you are saying... I do have a HOWEVER for you, where this system could differ is the allowance for handicapping, it is not merely following a set of rules.. There is an aspect of it that is strictly mechanical -- as in the amount to be wagered. The selection is not cut and dried.. More selections will occur this time of year as the teams sort themselves out.. This system totally missed the tigers and brewers victories, that was in large part due to my handicapping.. Doesnt matter, ill keep a detailed record here and we can see how it pans out.. The beauty of it is, its 100% dogs and it adheres to money management and is not a martingale approach..