Wormy Pix SB

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Thank goodness, I swept the board. Leaving just a little bit of my arse for the Big One. The NFL effect was on display as several big calls & non-calls assisted KC in their narrow victory @ BAL. I’d like to say tho that BAL’s “O” gameplan doomed them as there’s no universe where KC should rush more times than BAL (32 carries to 16). DET also blew the gm, not just Campbell’s 4th down gambles, but more so dropped passes & overall poor play by the entire team in 2nd half. Not to mention another 2 surefire, dropped INTs by DET’s “D” that would’ve sealed the win. The 2nd dropped INT in the 3rd Q hurt the most, w/Purdy’s overthrown pass bouncing off CB Vildor’s facemask & bouncing into the hands of Aiyuk, for a 51-yd reception. Teaser hit w/out a sweat.

I had my 2nd worst POW season here @ the RX by ½ a gm & I’d very much like to move on from that. I missed out on a GOY play (GOY win was a Teaser) this yr, & looking back I should’ve went w/MIA over NYJ on black Friday as a GOY w/Boyle starting @ QB. Missed that bus, as I didn’t even have the guts to make that my POW. My SB record is atrocious, so I can see a lot of folks possibly fading me here, which is fine. We’re here to help people win, no matter how. I’m definitely switching up how I cap SBs tho, as part of the reason why I’ve lost so many SBs is likely due to traditional capping, let emotions interfere, or reading too much into public perception. As I mentioned in my KC writeup 2 wks ago, when we get to these PO gms where the matchups are as even as they can get, just one or two penalties (or flags not thrown), TOs, or coaching decisions decides the winner. Only cases like TB over KC in ’21 (KC oline decimated & TB’s “D” phenomenal), DEN over CAR in ’16, IND over CHI ’07, TB over OAK ’03, & BAL over NYG in ’01, this century where the winner was clearly the better team in those matchups. I’m still learning after 21 yrs of capping!

Final Regular Season Regular Season POW 6-12, Teasers 9-12, GOY 1-0, Overall 43-49-2 (46-51-2 Undocumented)

Playoff POW 2-1, Teasers 1-2, Overall 6-6, SB record since 07: 5-11 (9-12 Undocumented)

KC +2
somehow is the Cinderella team in the SB. They barely held on to winning the AFC West, looked awful on “O” for most of the season, entered POs as 3rd seed, endured -36 degrees w/wind chill @ hm against MIA, handled BUF on the rd in frigid temp’s again, then beat the season MVP @ BAL. Now they face the #1 team in football in SF. SF is the most balanced team in the NFL by far. To say Purdy is one of the weak links on the team, despite throwing 31 TDs & leading the league in QBR, is a sign of how great the team is & not a slight against Purdy. But, 4 dropped INTs in his gms against GB & DET definitely helped SF get here. W/Reid, Sneed & McDuffie roving the secondary, I doubt they’ll drop any bad throws by Purdy. QB play will be one of the major differences here. Mahomes has seen it all in his career. Faced the LOAT in a SB, has led blowout victories, has come from behind many times, beat this same franchise just 4 yrs ago in SB, & did all that w/a multitude of different receivers, RBs, & olines. Even when the very stout KC “D” failed (like vs PHI in last yr’s SB), Mahomes & Reid did just enough to pull out the win. Coaching matchup will be another major factor. Shanahan has a great PO record, but when it mattered most, his play-calling definitely torpedoed all of his memorable PO losses. And that centers mostly around not running the ball in 2nd half or key downs when his teams were running so well in the gm. It will be fascinating to see if he reverses that & runs CMC into the ground in 2nd half of this SB, regardless of score. Reid has also learned a lot since his days in PHI. His in-gm adjustments have helped him to 5 SBs, winning 2 of them. And don’t forget DC Spagnuolo. He was the mind behind NYG’s upset of the most prolific “O”s in NE & halted what should’ve been the 2nd undefeated season. He’s coached under Reid, Coughlin, John Harbaugh, & Sean Payton, all SB winners. He’ll definitely have his “D” ready. Finally, which team winning the gm will benefit the league the most? Will it be getting Shanahan his 1st SB? Purdy silencing his critics? CMC capping off a great yr on the ground? Or, will it be ushering in the latest dynasty, who bring fans in whether they’re for or against the dynasty team? Add in the millions of Taylor Swift fans the NFL will be able to profit from if the relationship continues, & I feel the Shield will benefit most from a KC win. Esp if the rumors of Reid retiring come true. Sending him off a champion is the storybook ending everyone dreams of. The NFL is a billion-dollar business, & businesses do what’s best for them. Having Mahomes as the face of the league in yrs to come would be highly beneficial. Purdy & Shanahan will still have a lot of time to win. If BAL had beaten KC, I’d likely be going w/SF here.

KC 30
SF 27
6 Units


GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

2 Units SF/KC Over 47 ½:
“D”s could actually show up here, but recent SBs have seen some great “D”s fold in the late min’s of the gm. I’m not sure if they’re going into some type of prevent or they start to get rattled (or if you have your tinfoil hat on, the NFL wants to see back & forth, high-scoring ends to SBs), but most SBs go over the total in 2nd half, including 31 2nd half pts in KC/SF’s 1st matchup.

½ Unit Karlaftis Over ½ Sack +110: For fun. Hopefully George can get in there one time.

I normally play QB MVP as a ML play, so I’ll likely have a Unit or two on Mahomes to win MVP.

Here we go! BOL everyone, it was a really fun season! May we all be happy, healthy & drunk by the 4th Q. PSA: Play & Drink Responsibly.
 

come strong or dont come at all
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Let’s go my friend . I’m glad you on my side!!!!! gl to us. Nice write up
 

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Well Wormy BOL on your Chiefs pick as I like the Niners myself but everybody it seems likes the Chiefs but line not moving something fishy to me but thats my opinion as Im not doing a writeup on the game.Well take care my friend as I wont see you until Fall amd if you need to chat you know how to get a hold of me.
 

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Let’s go my friend . I’m glad you on my side!!!!! gl to us. Nice write up
It was fun trying to get you a championship. Hopefully next yr I'll be better help. Thanks for the kind words, and thanks for always stopping by. It was definitely a fun season because of folks like you.
 

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Well Wormy BOL on your Chiefs pick as I like the Niners myself but everybody it seems likes the Chiefs but line not moving something fishy to me but thats my opinion as Im not doing a writeup on the game.Well take care my friend as I wont see you until Fall amd if you need to chat you know how to get a hold of me.
Ah Gravy Train my friend. How long have we been doing this? The offseason will surely be long, but when 24-25 season comes along, we'll be rt back to it like no time had passed. Hopefully I'll remember to stop by the RX & chat basketball or baseball w/you. I'm a big fan of the SA Spurs & WAS Nationals. But I like to play NBA gms once in a while & love MLB totals.

BOL to you the rest of the yr buddy. Cheers. :cheers:
 

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Finally came up on the winning side. I'm really liking my discovery of not capping using traditional means in the biggest gm of the yr. I certainly hope this will help me rebound next season.

It's too bad that I wasn't able to put in my usual QB MVP as a ML play, Karlaftis got half a sack to push my one prop play, & my Over lost by 1/2 a pt. Can't get em all.

I'd like to thank all those that stopped by my threads throughout the season. Multiple wks I considered hanging em up, but then my friends like Jax Factor, Indiana, Cash$, Cash Flow & Gravy Train would pop in w/positive comments. Then the random visitor that's been reading my stuff for yrs will leave a great comment too. I really appreciate that, esp considering how awful my record was this yr. I hope KC cashed for most of you.

It's like getting a par or birdie on 18th hole in golf. No matter how bad your round was, that last hole brings you back next time!

BOL all, & see you in 7 months.
 

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