Wormy Pix Playoff Pick of the Week (1)

[WormyPix]

Finished season with POW's going 10-6-1. Not sure how my other posted plays went, but I'm up for the season, so couldn't have been that bad. Did horribly last playoffs however, but it was educational.

I like IND Pick'em over SD. IND is on a 9 gm win streak, and like SD, started the yr terribly. So both teams are coming into the playoffs "hot", with SD getting a lot of help from hapless DEN. I felt IND would run all over SD last yr in semi-finals, and IND absolutely laid an egg. With that still fresh in their minds, and with some redemption in an ugly win @ SD in Wk 12, I say they don't repeat that. Also I'm going with the better QB. Sure Rivers led the league in QB rating, but c'mon, that's similar to how well Kurt Warner is doing. They both play in incredibly weak divisions, with very weak pass "D"s in particular. Speaking of weak pass "D"s, SD boasts the 2nd worst in the land. Not good when going against the MVP. Only ARI gave up more passing TD's than SD, and they haven't gotten much pressure on QB's either. Another tidbit is SD gets abused by TE's, so expect yet another high reception gm from Dallas Clark, who seems to glow brightly in Peyton's eyes on the field. On "D", even w/out team MVP Bob Sanders for most of the yr, they allowed only 6 passing TD's. PIT allowed twice as much, and that's fricken awesome. And IND gets adequate pressure on QB's, with Freeney and Mathis rushing off the edges (10.5 & 11.5 respectively). With LT suffering from a groin injury (limits cutback ability), and TE Gates having a sprained ankle, I see IND focusing a lot on the pass, where Vincent is their main weapon. Also, I think IND lost focus vs SD last yr @ home, so being on the road I feel they'll be better off. And as mentioned, I'm going with Peyton in an even gm. If you have to rely on a 2 min drill to score a game winning TD or FG, who would you put your money on?

IND 24
SD 20

BOL all, and comments are always welcome.

 

[WormyPix]

Wildcard weekend Honorable mentions:

MIA +3 1/2 Well, I am a homer, so take this as it is. I have had a blast watching this incredible turnaround, and I don't think they're done yet. Everyone thinks they've played way over their heads, so I'm going the opposite way. BAL's "D" is the real deal, and Flacco has been impressive, but MIA is using motivation from being labeled a serious underdog in this gm. I feel if MIA takes care of the ball like they've been doing, BAL will make the mistakes that'll cost them the gm. Should be a fun one to watch.

PHI -3 With Pat Williams hurt, PHI should be able to do what they want on "O" w/out too much problem. And Reid has had success vs MIN, and is 1-0 against his old protege Childress.

ARI +1 Another home dog I expect to step it up because of being disrespected. ARI's "D" can be good at times, so if they play hard, this one could get ugly for ATL. Warner & co should have no problems scoring.

 

[QuittingWork]

I think I don't really care for andy reid. I also think philly is a dangerous team to wager on, because they're weak on the road--I mean they've had memorable collapses against terrible teams.

Having said that, I'm feeling like only giving 3 against childress and staff is sweetness...as I feel like the min coaching staff is a 3 point (minimum) liability. Even a slightly better than average performance from t. Jackson probably won't be enough, considering philly should be prepared for heavy doses of a.p. He will fumble at least once, I believe.

Normally, I'd step out on this one--poor money management style. Presently, I'm a bit gun shy after laying shameful losers in these ultra-weak garbage bowl tilts. I came out of cfb retirement only to re-retire 5 days and many units later.

As for your p.o.w., I dig.
I believe peyton is even better than people say. I just think no one understands football better than him. He makes excellent throws consistently. It's impossible for me to even consider san diego at a pick em, given their weak pass d.

Good Luck, brother.

$$$

 

[WormyPix]

QW, great to hear ma'man. You are right on with both MIN & PHI. That's why PHI is my #3 play. But if all the chips fall into place, PHI will win this one easily, so that's what I'm banking on.

Yes, as much people that have watched Peyton play on TV, I don't understand why people still doubt him. I suppose it's not doubting Peyton, but his team. The oline has protection issues when they lose, and the "D" doesn't hold leads at times. IND's run gm is mediocre at best, so really it's been all Peyton quite a bit. But you watch this guy play, esp in crunch time, he is money. He's a consummate student of the gm, and relishes outthinking the opposing "D". And that "laser-rocket arm," what else could you want?

 

[thecruncher]

Wormy, I myself am playing the Chargers, though not with any great confidence, lol. They, unlike the Colts, have a run game that must be respected, Rivers should be able to connect on many big plays on the play action just like he did last week versus Denver. The Colts' play-action isn't going to be bitten on much, so it really will be up to Peyton to win the game.

 

[dayang23]

Wildcard weekend Honorable mentions:

MIA +3 1/2 Well, I am a homer, so take this as it is. I have had a blast watching this incredible turnaround, and I don't think they're done yet. Everyone thinks they've played way over their heads, so I'm going the opposite way. BAL's "D" is the real deal, and Flacco has been impressive, but MIA is using motivation from being labeled a serious underdog in this gm. I feel if MIA takes care of the ball like they've been doing, BAL will make the mistakes that'll cost them the gm. Should be a fun one to watch.

PHI -3 With Pat Williams hurt, PHI should be able to do what they want on "O" w/out too much problem. And Reid has had success vs MIN, and is 1-0 against his old protege Childress.

ARI +1 Another home dog I expect to step it up because of being disrespected. ARI's "D" can be good at times, so if they play hard, this one could get ugly for ATL. Warner & co should have no problems scoring.

Love all of these, Miami the most!!

:toast:

 

[WormyPix]

Wormy, I myself am playing the Chargers, though not with any great confidence, lol. They, unlike the Colts, have a run game that must be respected, Rivers should be able to connect on many big plays on the play action just like he did last week versus Denver. The Colts' play-action isn't going to be bitten on much, so it really will be up to Peyton to win the game.

RATS!! Well, your last statement is the one that sells me on IND. Peyton will win this gm for them. I hope to Xmas IND wins in an easy one, but if it becomes a close gm, I have far more faith in Manning then Rivers. Also, with LT gimpy, I'm not so sure SD's run gm will be that much better than IND's, although SD's oline is blocking well. I think combo of Rhodes/Addai can do enough. You know Dungy will force feed them anyway.

Great to hear from you as always, Crunch, hope you had a great holiday!

 

[WormyPix]

Hope we have a perfect sweep then, dayang!

PS, does that mean your wife is daying?

:toast:

 

[WormyPix]

God, I can not believe the damn betting public has pushed the IND & ARI lines to -1 1/2. I hope these are sharp bettors dumping huge $ on them, but I have a feeling the public will sink my ships. At least I got on both of them early. Does this mean PHI's line could possibly go down tomorrow?

 

[WormyPix]

Phew, public didn't sink the ARI ship, now time for IND.

I'm also adding a nice prop in Clark o5 1/2 receptions. The last 3 gms of season, Clark had 5, 8, and 12 rec's. And vs SD, he had 6. In playoff atmosphere, I expect Peyton to rely heavily on Clark, esp with SD focusing on getting pressure on Peyton. SD does tend to be weak against good TE's too. GL to all.

 

[WormyPix]

Boy, where do you begin? From IND's oline not blocking, to IND "D" giving up huge yds on simple RB catches, to the silly penalties, to SD winning the coin toss. It was not IND's day to win, I'm afraid. Luckily my Clark prop cut back on my losses a bit, but that gm left a real bad taste in my mouth. Guess public couldn't be right on both gms today. Here's to MIA & PHI tomorrow!

 

[QuittingWork]

Ron Winters.

Is that guys not the squarest looking bum you've ever set your eyes to?

I had az and u50 in the late game to come out ahead.

Tomorrow, I feel, will be very public. That minny game is looking more and more like a no-play. I'm expecting a comedy of errors. Will the comedy be a high scoring one? Entertaining over, probably letting it be though. Slight edge to phil.

That brings us to murdermore/miami. Watch out in that one. Many people whose opinion I respect and value like miami.
You know for an absolute fact that bmore will NOT pull a no-show. Their D will be frightening. Rookie QB on the road? I'm not all that concerned, as I don't think they allow flacco anything but low risk plays. This miami team played in tight games with far weaker D's.
I've been ponderin' this one a lot. Loving B-more by 10.
Stepping out a bit on the highly public fave.

Hopefully when the dust settles, we're up one way or another.

 

[WormyPix]

I told Gravy I'd tail him on the IND Under, and didn't. Damn. As for MIA, you may be right, but I feel MIA may be coming out more motivated than BAL, if that's possible. Plus, just getting that 3 1/2 @ home holds value. I can see this gm going to OT. And people are wrong that Pennington can not throw the deep ball. I've watched all but 4 of MIA's gms this season, and I've seen him throw many deep balls, which were either dropped or overthrown. Perhaps he'll connect finally with BAL trying to shut down the short stuff. I'm certain Sparano/Henning realizes BAL's speed will hinder their usual "O". We shall see!

 

[Cheddarforme]

I tell ya'll what......I had myself convinced on Bal yesterday, but the more I research, I do think this is the road fav of the day to lose. Let's go MIA!:missingte

 

[WormyPix]

Yikes, sorry about that Cheddar, if you were serious! MIA was again in this gm, despite what the score says. Ted Ginn Jr. Cam Cameron still haunts this team with the worst draft pick in team history. Sure he did better this season, but it was because of his missed catch, and falling down on a deep route, that led to 2 of Pennington's picks. BAL's "D" did a great job, but if Ginn had stepped it up, MIA would've won. Then, when MIA is in FG range, Ginn fumbles a handoff on an end-around, recovering it near the 50. Damn that guy. He folded in the biggest gm of his NFL career (unlike my Hawaii boy Davone Bess). Damn did MIA's "D" do well. What a disappointing end to a great season. Look forward to next yr and beyond.

Well, 2-2 for the weekend, but losing due to IND going down in OT. Better luck in divisional round.