Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (WC)

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Amazingly sad season for the Worm as I finish w/one of my worst seasons posting here @ the RX. Like they say, it’s better to be lucky than good, & I had very little luck this yr, although a big vacation in middle of season also didn’t help. This gm is not for the weak of heart, which is why I use the Unit system. I was foolish to back Zappe & Belicheat as I based my POW on NE’s record against NYJ. But despite their “O” ineptitude, there were still many opportunities for NE to win & cover, they just didn’t materialize. It was just 6-3 NYJ @ the start of the 4th but 3 TOs by NE greased the skids & there was no chance @ recovery for Patsies. The other Jersey team NYG made me look smart by beating the rudderless Iggles, DAL/WAS just went Over the #, & my Teaser continued its mini hot streak. On to POs!

Final Regular Season Regular Season POW 6-12, Teasers 9-12, GOY 1-0, Overall 43-49-2 (46-51-2 Undocumented)

2022 Playoff POW 1-3, Teasers 3-0, GOY 0-1, Overall 10-6, SB 0-1

DAL -6 ½ (@ -120)
is hosting GB where Love will be making his 1st career PO start. QBs that have won their 1st PO gm are very few. What I noticed looking @ the short list is those QBs that won their 1st PO gm were clearly not the best player on the team & they all had great “D”s, including Brady & Roethlisberger. GB’s “D” has had flashes & were definitely a reason why they won their last 3 gms to get into POs, but those performances were against Fields, Jaren Hall, & Bryce Young. Enter DAL @ hm, where they lead the league in pts & are #5 in yards overall. I can’t see DAL laying an egg here @ hm, despite their awful PO history. Last yr DAL had to win their WC gm @ TB against the LOAT where both the “O” & “D” stepped up. Another huge factor here is health. DAL has no injuries while GB has a lengthy injury list, w/WR Watson & All-Pro CB Alexander both very questionable. If Alexander doesn’t play, that’s going to be a very weak secondary trying to contain Lamb & Cooks. W/Dak’s oline healthy, he will have enough time to throw, which is critical for him, & they may even have gains on the ground against GB’s 23rd ranked “D” in rypc. Oppositely, I expect DAL’s vaunted “D” to pressure Love & limit Aaron Jones enough for Dak & co to cover 7.

GB 16
DAL 27
4 Units


GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

2 Units LAR +3:
What a story in this matchup w/both QBs having a lot to show their former teams. I feel Stafford owns the edge here & should win this 2nd matchup between the 2. In ’21, LA beat DET 28-19, sending DET then to 0-7. The only reason that gm was that close was DET faked several punts, recovered a 1st Q onside kick, & a perfectly times screen pass against an LA blitz scored their 1st TD. DET won’t need all the trickery here, but @ least LA will be ready for it if they do. As much attention is being paid to the QBs, I feel Kyren Williams, Kupp & Nacua will be the difference here. Those 3 give LA the slight edge on “O” that can lead them to a win against the darling Lions.

1 Unit MIA +4 ½: Well. The cards are immensely stacked against my team here, but despite the slew of injuries MIA will need to play through, & the horrendous temps & winds @ Arrowhead, MIA’s run gm & “D” can keep them in this one. Mahomes & Chefs are coming in cold (no pun intended) w/KC leading the league in dropped passes. I don’t think the weather will improve that here. Ramsey has a history of containing Kelce (3 rec’s for 14 yds in Germany matchup), Mahomes has 17 TOs on the season, & MIA has a better run gm than KC. Tua has worked on his cold weather gm, so he has looked better in cold weather his last 2 seasons vs his 1st 3 yrs. Waddle & Mostert have a good chance to play, which would be very critical.

1 Unit MIA/KC Under 43: Very simple, bad weather combined w/2 very good “D”s, w/KC struggling on “O” & warm weather MIA coming into negative temps. FGs will be challenging & the run gm will have to be relied on.

1 Unit CLE -2 ½: Going against the rookie QB making his 1st PO start. HOU can very much pull this off however, because HOU does have a balanced “O” & very good “D”. CLE also has a very good “D” (#1), so if Flacco doesn’t sabotage them, this should be an easy win & cover for CLE.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser

CLE +11
MIA/KC Under 56 ½
LAR +16
BUF +3
 

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Good luck Worm. Something tells me our offense shows up today. Time to pound the rock and shock the world!!
 

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Thank you my friend. Backing down on KC after reading your insights on game. Toss up. gl this weekend!!!!!! Rooting for ya!!
 

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Good luck Worm. Something tells me our offense shows up today. Time to pound the rock and shock the world!!
Cash, you always a glass half full guy w/our team! I have a sneaking suspicion that Tua will do enough to quiet the doubters here, but his receivers & oline have to also step up. Mis-snaps, dropped balls, fumbles, all cost their "O" & puts added pressure on Tua to carry, which normally ends up being bad for him. Tua relies so much on his teammates doing the rt thing that if they screw up, it makes his throws or reads look really bad. Obviously Tua isn't perfect, no QB is. And you're also rt about run gm has to click. Mostert has to play I think for us to have a chance. Him & Achane, vice Achane & Wilson is such a difference.
 

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Wormy,GL on your picks today wormy and love your POW on Sunday !
 

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Thank you my friend. Backing down on KC after reading your insights on game. Toss up. gl this weekend!!!!!! Rooting for ya!!
I hope it becomes good advice. KC should win, but they are so shaky, esp w/the bad weather. BOL!
 

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That's great to hear! What's your thoughts on CLE gm coming up? The town's bars must be filling up.
Well Im at home was at the casino was packed anyways the game is on NBC affliate but Directv is blocking that channel so if you dont go to the bar or casino and have Directv you cant watch it big upraor about that here
 

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About Cleveland game 2 quick stats Flaaco is 7-0 in wild card game and has 7 road wins in the playoffs

Stafanski is 10-0 against the AFC South

Well if I was Houston I would live and die with the Blitz you got burned last time so your outside rushers are going against 3rd string tackles take advantage with that you have to make Flacco move he isnt going to move much and double team Cooper make somebody else beat you.

Houston on Offense I can see Singletary getting alot of dump passes out of the backfield and Schultz having a big day at TE not 100% sold on the Browns LB's
 

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Yeah, CLE secondary is playing awful. Letting multiple receivers get behind them every series. The missed PI on Njoku & bad PI flag for Schultz is going to cost them. NFL wants star rookie QB to advance, looks like.
 

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About Cleveland game 2 quick stats Flaaco is 7-0 in wild card game and has 7 road wins in the playoffs

Stafanski is 10-0 against the AFC South

Well if I was Houston I would live and die with the Blitz you got burned last time so your outside rushers are going against 3rd string tackles take advantage with that you have to make Flacco move he isnt going to move much and double team Cooper make somebody else beat you.

Houston on Offense I can see Singletary getting alot of dump passes out of the backfield and Schultz having a big day at TE not 100% sold on the Browns LB's
See Houston get pressure on Flacco and throws the pick 6 aginst the 3rf string RT

Ball Game this game is over

Injuries got to them and need a another top notch WR
 

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