Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (5)

[WormyPix]

What a SD rush in that 4th Q. I hate to say it, but my POW's have been rescued twice by 4th Q surges. Of course I'll say that's how I capped them! Like they say, better to be lucky than good. Although I HATE that saying!!!

So, here's to hopefully my first no question POW.

POW are now 2-2, Monday nighters 1-0, since I didn't make BAL last wk an official play.

Man I was bummed by Lewis making BAL ML his big 10 unit play this wk. However, I must respectfully disagree as TEN has arguably the best oline and dline combo in the league currently. And their 4-0 record reinforces that. Because Lendale White and Kerry Collins can not be said to be carrying this team, it must be a combined effort. And it is. Everyone knows their run "D" is great, but they're also #1 in ppg allowed, #8 in pass ypg allowed, 2nd in sacks, and #5 in total ypg allowed. Now BAL is statistically the best in "D", but this is against flops CIN & CLE, and banged up PIT. And even with a matchup with sack-king PIT during the season, BAL nets only 9 sacks on the yr, vs TEN's 15. It's TEN's ability to stuff the run, and get great pressure on the QB, that I believe BAL will have HUGE trouble scoring, even at home. CLE, CIN, and PIT all have problems on "O" thus far, while TEN has proven itself vs 2 super bowl favorites (MIN & JAX), while beating the same CIN team 24-7 vs BAL's opening 17-10 win, and a HOU team on the mend who actually found themselves vs TEN, but still managed to "hold on" winning 31-12. On "O", TEN has been a running force, in the mold of JAX in previous yrs. This has allowed Collins to relax, and make his reads with no-name WR's to throw to. And TEN's oline is holding up against very good "D"s in all the teams they've faced save CIN. Plus with McGahee hurt, and McClain a serviceable option, I can not see BAL having success with the run. So this leaves Flacco to try and carry the team, where he's completing 55% of his passes, and only 51% vs PIT, where people thought he had a pretty good gm. With DB Cortland Finnegan having a defensive POY season thus far, I look for Flacco to throw his first pick(s) here. No doubt this will be a physical gm, and I strongly believe TEN has been better tested coming out of the AFC South, than BAL has vs the very poor AFC North. Harbaugh has this team playing disciplined, but with their backs to the wall, and TEN controlling the tempo with Chris Johnson/White combo, BAL will fall to 2-2.

TEN 27
BAL 13

I promised a Dog of the Week play, and here it is. I like DET @ home vs CHI. This gm is always competitive, and goes against common thought. DET coming off a bye, and with DT Tommie Harris suspended, opens the door for a SU DET win here.

CHI 31
DET 38

Obviously I like the Over here as well!

BOL all, and please leave comments for me to peruse!
:toast:

 

[jimzorn]

"I like DET @ home vs CHI. This gm is always competitive and goes against common thought."

det has more then just common thought working against them


"DET coming off a bye"

do you think they can fix what's wrong in 1 week?

"DT Tommie Harris suspended, opens the door for a SU DET win here".


:nohead: :nohead::nohead:

This obv opens the door for a SU win..so what are you waiting for people???


If all else fails DET is a home dog...and thats the most profitable NFL betting angle......they key is to find the rights ones....or blindly play them all in your office pools

 

[WormyPix]

I see a lot of factors going for DET and against CHI. One of them is definitely DET's bye week. With the passing gm improving, Rudi taking some pressure off Kitna, and CHI's "D" giving up 246 pypg, DET has a good chance to get their first win vs a div opponent.

As I don't like to blindly play office pools, I must rely on insight and perspective on teams to attempt to predict gm outcomes. Just saying DET is a home dog just doesn't do it for me. The home dog is 5-14 ATS in the NFL so far, or around that. Plus, this is a dog pick for me, not my top play. If you feel you have a better pick this sunday, please let me know.

Thanks for responding, regardless. Btw, are you saying you're with DET?

 

[thecruncher]

zorn -- drinking and posting don't mix my friend! Well I'm against you on both, but Balt/Ten is pretty much a no play with the way my lines have shaped up. I do like da Bears still, but yes, their defense really hasn't been that spectacular and Tillman and Vasher are both injured at the corners coming into this one. The Lions have been so dreadful, though, that I can't imagine doing anything but fading them until they prove they can be competitive for an entire game.

 

[WormyPix]

Absolutely right Crunch, and both of us know that after the ATL debacle! But seeing how ATL is actually a decent team at home, DET has room to improve. That's right, I forgot to mention Tillman & Vasher too. That can't be good vs Roy and Calvin. We'll see how mobile Kitna can be, but just looking at previous gms vs CHI, DET's done pretty well.

Yeah Crunch, I feel BAL has had an easier road up to this pt, and are slightly overrated. If they keep this close, I will give them their due. But TEN has looked incredible, and have the pieces in place to not only make a run at the super bowl, but at the very least beat BAL @ their house, by more than 3. Plus, I'd like to take advantage of TEN before Young comes back! At that pt, I think you gotta go against TEN.

 

[WormyPix]

"We want to prove to ourselves - nobody else - what type of team we are," coach Rod Marinelli said. "And internally, that's when it really does mean something. We know we're capable of doing better, and I think inside, internally, for each man, that's something they're looking at. And we've got to go out and just do it now. We can't talk about it. We've got to go do it."

We'll see. Also, how is a guy from NY a WAS fan?

 

[jimzorn]

I would never bet real cash on Det...

I would just pick them in some pools to try and make up ground when you have to pick all the games

 

[Aloha_4_Da_Winna]

yo

I would never bet real cash on Det...

I would just pick them in some pools to try and make up ground when you have to pick all the games

I agree. Detroit always screws me up. I may just use them in my pick ems.

BTW:
Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games

 

[WormyPix]

Yes, DET is awful so far, but this is the same team as last yr, and they won a few gms, including 2 vs CHI. Albeit CHI isn't the same. I just believe this is their wk, coming off a bye. My other dog picks were KC over DEN, and MIA over NE. Who would've thought those would be winners?

 

[WormyPix]

Wow, TEN is -2 now! I hope that is a good sign for me. BAL is riding high public perception!

 

[WormyPix]

Geez, yet another 4th Q comeback for my POW. I gotta get a true POW here. I'd also like to apologize for my gross DET pick. I still felt this team had enough talent to succeed at least once, but it is fairly obvious that DET has deep internal problems, starting with the coaches. I don't think he'll last the season, and this team is going to need a MIA-like makeover to get close to the post season.

I hope to give better picks next wk.

 

[WormyPix]

Well, just took a look at the monday nighter, and I like NO in this one. MIN has significant injuries in LB Henderson, and WR's Berrian & Rice. I know AP should feast on a run "D" like NO's (122 ypg), but if they can just focus on not giving up the BIG runs, then NO's "O" can score enough to win and cover. Meachem & Moore are making up for the absence of Colston & Shockey. And Deuce coming back allows for more creativity with Bush, and a power running attack to help close out the gm. I'm most worried about MIN's pass rush getting pressure on Brees. But NO's oline has handled WAS, TB & SF's rushes, so perhaps they can hold up vs MIN, whose 17th in pass "D" (207 ypg). Plus, MIN does play differently on the road.

MIN 27
NO 34

 

[WormyPix]

Gimme a freakin break. My God, what does a team have to do to lose a game? Ask the New Orleans Saints. Penalties, stupid plays, TO's, and did I mention Turnovers? I would say NO's special teams did well, but a blocked FG return TD, and then a missed potential game winning FG nullifies that. So, only NO's run "D" did it's job tonight. That's it. I guess that's what MIN needed to win this gm, and that's what happened.