Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (3)

[WormyPix]

MIA's STs was an absolute disaster allowing a 104 yd return TD, a blocked punt & a fumble off the face mask. On "O" Tannehill was the main culprit w/accuracy issues, but yet again was a victim of open drops by his WRs. MIA's "D" actually did terrific considering how often they were on the field, w/normally short fields to start. Then the backdoor was WIDE open w/my remaining plays as CHI scored 3 TDs in the 4th, & IND gave up a comfortable 7 pt lead late in their 4th. DET was unable to kick even a FG to save my teaser.


POW 1-1, Teasers 1-1, Overall 3-4-1


CIN (-6 1/2) is riding a 10 gm reg season hm win streak (lost to SD in playoffs last yr) & looked great against the high flying Falcons last wk. For good reason, a lot of the focus is on CIN's "O" thus far w/Dalton completing 65% for almost 10 yds per pass. More impressive he hasn't been sacked or thrown a pick yet. RB tandem of Hill & Gio have been a terror, not needing even AJ Green or Tyler Eifert last wk to move the ball consistently. They should have some success again vs TEN who gave up 220 yds on the ground vs DAL. RG Zeitler is out, but backup Kevin Pollak has a lot of starting experience & did well vs ATL. But, as usual it is the "D" for CIN that is pacing their 2-0 start. Against quality QBs Flacco & Ryan, CIN gave up only 10 & 13 pts & a paltry 5.4 yds per pass play! Locker could possibly surprise esp w/the inspiring play of TE Walker, but I'm betting against that. I'm sold on DAL DC Rod Marinelli's incredible work w/his "D", but Locker & co will be facing their toughest test yet. CIN's secondary will make it extremely difficult for TEN's middling WRs to get open much, while Atkins & Dunlap will lead in stuffing the run gm. On top of all this, CIN is also sporting an impressive +5 takeaway margin. If that continues here, CIN could be looking at a runaway. TEN has been really weak in the 1st half (10 & 3 pts) even in their impressive opening win @ KC. CIN has been the exact opposite (15-0 & 10-3 in 1st half). I suspect CIN will be up by at least 10 by the half.


TEN 10
CIN 27
3 Units
2 Units CIN @ half -4


BOL to all, and as always comments are most welcome.

 

[WormyPix]

Honorable Mentions:


1 Unit DAL/STL Under 44 1/2: STL's last 7 gms have gone under, as well as DAL's last 4. I think DAL will have trouble w/STL's physical line while 3rd stringer Austin Davis will likely QB the hapless Lams (w/out speedster Tavon Austin too). This is also a revenge gm for STL @ hm, so I expect a spirited effort from their "D" against Romo & co, who are still considered a marquee "O".


1 Unit MIA -3 1/2: KC off to 0-2 start, on the rd again, off emotional loss to rival DEN. MIA fairly horrendous @ BUF, who had huge motivational edge. MIA's "D" is just as good if not better than DEN & TEN's, who held KC to 17 & 10. I expect a rebound from MIA "O" here.


2 Unit Wormy Teaser:

SD +15
GB/DET o39
NE -1/2
DEN +17 1/2

 

[billbeater]

GL bud :toast: So far, just liking DET and SF on Sunday.....

 

[United]

Great stiff my friend. I'm really close to playing Cincy.

good luck today

 

[palehose1]

Tenn +7 is a Monster play for BR who is playing Cincy ,BUT br`s players killed it yesterday so this may be a weekend trend .

 

[Gravy]

BOL today Wormy but Cincy has too many injuries for me but have a bye week next week so this might be a good play as I remember a thread about upcoming bye weeks.

 

[WormyPix]

GL bud :toast: So far, just liking DET and SF on Sunday.....

Thanks Bill, long time! Like DET, not so much SF. I suspect Kaeperstink will be ultra conservative w/his throws today & Arians has been a master ATS esp @ hm. ARI "D" will be pumped up, no doubt.

 

[WormyPix]

Tenn +7 is a Monster play for BR who is playing Cincy ,BUT br`s players killed it yesterday so this may be a weekend trend .

I actually saw that, Pale! Then I saw he had other "Monsters", so he could lose that one & take the rest. Hopefully!

 

[WormyPix]

Great stiff my friend. I'm really close to playing Cincy.

good luck today

Man, I hope I didn't "stiff" you too bad! Lol, well United, CIN is a heavy public fav today but so are NOR, IND & DAL. They've got to win at least one of those & I'm banking on CIN because watching TEN the last 2 wks hasn't been inspiring. CIN is establishing themselves as a dominant "D".

 

[WormyPix]

BOL today Wormy but Cincy has too many injuries for me but have a bye week next week so this might be a good play as I remember a thread about upcoming bye weeks.

The only injuries of note would be RG Zeitler & LB Burfict. AJ Green is a go. I'm a little concerned about missing Burfict, but CIN's secondary & dline are so good that they should be able to make that up. And you're correct about teams heading into a bye, esp w/a veteran coach like Lewis. FWIW TEN also has big div rival IND on tap next wk.

I'm also tailing you on CLE today! Soooo...

Adding:

1 Unit CLE +1 1/2

 

[WormyPix]

Sigh. So POW absolutely destroys today, but I end up juicing out on the day. It was a heavy public day too, so not being able to cash on that is highly disappointing. My teaser goes down again, which is a rarity, due to Rodgers & Stafford's inability to move the ball on each other's awful "D"s. I'd definitely be worried if I were a Lions or Packers fan.

Speaking of which, MIA "O" was just plain terrible. More critical drops from WRs & uninspiring play calling. Maybe it'll click eventually, but even against NE, MIA's "O" led by Tannehill hasn't been good. It's depressing to watch. This is w/adequate protection from the oline & pretty damn good running by Lamar Miller. MIA LBs are missing tackles, but the "D" is definitely not the issue. They're put on the field WAY too often & w/poor field position.

Another brutal wk. I look forward to Wk 4.