Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (2)

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A lot of smart folks warned me about CLE's "O" being a steaming hot mess & they certainly showed it in the 1st half Sunday. What disappointed me most was CLE's poor tackling. Bell, Ben & even the WRs were getting a lot of long runs due to mistackles on all levels. Thank God they shored that up in the 2nd half & almost pulled out the victory. CLE's run gm helped pace the way as expected. DEN did their usual sit back & relax routine in their 2nd half to almost blow it against Luck. Otherwise I would've had a 4-0 start.


POW 1-0, Teasers 1-0, Overall 3-0-1


MIA (+1) dominated NE in front of a national audience. Even though NE scored 20 & was up 10 @ the half, that was mostly due to 3 STRAIGHT TOs by MIA "O" (2 of which led to 10 NE pts). So the other 2 possessions MIA had that were TO-free, they scored 10 pts. Then obviously MIA ran away w/it in 2nd half. Score could've potentially been MIA winning by 30 or more if they'd held onto the ball more. BUF also had a huge win @ CHI. CJ & FJ paced the "O" enabling EJ to make a handful of plays downfield on a relatively weak CHI "D". The way to attack MIA's "D" is by running, which is why BUF is 3-1 against them. I've never liked MIA's LBs since #54 left, & this yr is no different. They struggle against the run & TEs. But, Trusnik, Jelani Jenkins & rookie Chris McClain (1 sack & blocked punt) may be an upgrade based on last wk. They brought energy & pursuit I'm not used to seeing @ LB. That definitely comes from the play of Cameron Wake who IMO is the defensive MVP right behind JJ Watt. BUF's "D" will be ready no doubt. The crowd will be loud as they have new ownership that will keep team in BUF, & "D" will be pumped coming off 2nd most potent "O" from last yr. That said, CHI's "O" really took strides when McCown took over, but Cutler is too much of a slinger to be consistent. He will get his plays because his WRs are so gifted, but he'll throw backbreaking INTs at critical pts in a drive or gm. Tanny still throws picks too, but not off his backfoot across his body! BUF took full advantage of Cutler's wild west mentality & CHI's lack of using their true MVP Matt Forte. In a nutshell CHI really aided BUF in their win, while MIA's pressure greatly impacted Brady, & their run gm led the way on "O". BUF's home field will be an advantage, but I feel if MIA wins the TO battle (which should've been a highlight for them this wk in practice coming off 3 TOs) Tannehill will beat EJ Manuel if it comes down to them. Both team's run gms & "D" should be a wash.


MIA 30
BUF 23
5 Units


BOL to all, and as always comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:
4 Units SF -6 1/2 (-115): Unfortunately I got to capping this gm too late as I already made MIA my top play, so SF will be my co-POW. Good Lord, CHI struggled @ hm against a crappy BUF "O" & now travel to SF who are off a big win @ DAL, & opening a new stadium (also 1st hm gm). Throw in CHI is down 2 starting olinemen, & all 3 starting WRs are hurt (Morgan doubtful, Marshall & Jeffery questionable) does not bode well for the free-slinging Cutler. In fact, SF "D" probably practiced the same way as they did in preparation for Romo! If Cutler just throws 1 INT, this gm should be a blowout. INTs are like chips for Cutler; he can't only have 1. And if CHI had a difficult time defending EJ Manuel & BUF's zone read "O", does anyone think SF's will be easier? On the rd? I have a feeling I'll not only regret not making SF my POW, but I may rue not making them a GOY.


1 Unit IND -3: Very simple play here. IND @ hm on primetime should always be a strong play. Throw in PHI being razor thin @ OT (down to 3rd string RT) & IND should take this by 7 or more.


2 Unit Wormy Teaser:
DET +15 1/2
ARI +12
SEA +8
DEN PK


Phew! So much for honorable mentions. I was heavily weighing buying some back on MIA & increasing on SF, but I have bad stories about switching plays, so I decided to let it ride! Highly confident in my top 2 plays & teaser this wk, but I'll still ask for luck!
 

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always a must read, GL 2day wormy

:toast:
 

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Wormy,BOL on your Homer play today LOL J/K Bud but tough game for me but a slight lean towards Miami
 

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Liking the SF play more and more. The only reservation on Mia is they traditionally don't play well in Buffalo. But, the weather isnt 30 degrees its going to be 70 and they were quite impressive last week pulling away from NE. Overall Id feel pretty confident if I were you on both picks. BOL
 

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Wormy,BOL on your Homer play today LOL J/K Bud but tough game for me but a slight lean towards Miami
LOL! Hey, I went w/your home team last wk, it's only fair I try my favorite this wk! BUF is always a tough out for MIA, but I feel we have the most stable "D" & oline in a looong time. Not to mention QB & run gm. Heck, everything about the Phins is well above their norm!

Thanks Gravy, BOL on all your action today too!
 

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Liking the SF play more and more. The only reservation on Mia is they traditionally don't play well in Buffalo. But, the weather isnt 30 degrees its going to be 70 and they were quite impressive last week pulling away from NE. Overall Id feel pretty confident if I were you on both picks. BOL
Yup Cruz, MIA rarely plays @ BUF this early. In an even gm w/the comparisons I made above w/both of their gms last wk, MIA owns the edge.

Isn't SF the clear winner here? Geez, I typically stay away from the primetime gms, but today's slate was extremely hard to pick winners. IMO all the gms are split rt down the middle in terms of advantages/disadvantages. Then you get to SF/CHI & all the motivation factors on SF's side & injuries for CHI, how can you not play SF? I'd hop on early because a lot of public action should push the line up. Unless we get early word that Marshall & Jeffery are both playing, then line could go down. If that happens, & MIA wins, I'll definitely up the SF play.

Thanks for stopping by. BOL to you too.
 

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Black Sunday.

I do not recall too many days like this. If you were on a lot of dogs you did very well.

BUF's "D" played extremely well, but it was MIA's STs that really struggled. A blocked punt, 104 yd kick return, & muffed punt all led to BUF scores. Even w/out those, MIA still just managed 10 pts. Tannehill was all over the place w/his throws. Lamar Miller did a good job filling in for Moreno who went out in the 1st. Again dropped passes hurt MIA as well.

But the ultimate had to be SF extending CHI drives w/silly penalties & allowing 3 TDs (2 in 26 seconds) in the 4th. I'm always a harsh critic of Kaepernick but even tonight's performance was special. 3 INTs & FL against the mighty "D" of da Bears.

Even my teaser went down in flames w/another poor outing for a QB in Stafford. He looked awful @ CAR, which similar to Tannehill, the opposing "D" did well, but not good enough to warrant those kinds of throws they were making.

A lot of top shelf QBs did poorly today costing their teams, so I suppose I fell into those traps.
 

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Thanks BMM! My head is definitely shaking, but not down. This wk was very hard to cap, but unusual play from all kinds of angles just blew up a lot of good teams! That's the NFL, unfortunately.
 

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