Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (15)

[WormyPix]

Can’t get any closer than that. Needed a fluke play in OT for MIN to cover vs NYJ. I will most definitely take it. The gm actually went all MIN’s way early, but MIN went to sleep on a couple of pass plays from Smith & the gm got tight real quick. MIA was an absolute disaster as is their norm @ this time of yr. DEN let BUF backdoor them, & Belicheat continued his streak of not losing back to back gms by handling SD. Teaser was a breeze & is finally @ .500 for the yr.

POW 9-5, Teasers 7-7, Overall 40-31-1

ATL (+3) looked to be their normal rd selves @ GB on MNF until the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half. ATL is now 27 ½ pts ATS their last 6 gms w/a 4-2 ATS record. One huge reason for their late season surge is starting the same oline for 6 straight gms. There’s greater stability in both Ryan being off his back more as well as in the run gm. ATL is still a very strong hm team scoring 31.8 ppg while giving up 23.8 ppg. On the other side, PIT scores nearly 2 TD’s less on the rd, which is even more distressing when you look @ their rd opponents outside of BAL & CIN (CLE, JAX, TEN, NYJ, CAR). Of those rd gms, PIT escaped w/their lives @ JAX & TEN, & lost to CLE & NYJ. PIT’s focus off big wins & against inferior teams is nothing new. They are in a serious chase for a wild card spot in the AFC where about 50 teams are in contention. Meanwhile, ATL can separate in the mighty NFC South by improving to 6-8. Many folks believe this will be a track meet @ the Georgia Dome & the over bet would be a smart one. But w/PIT’s focus issues against losing teams & ATL’s resurgence, I feel ATL has an excellent chance to win this one SU. Leveon Bell is a huge concern for ATL, as is Antonio Brown. But if Julio plays, which I think he will (GTD but he’s felt better as the wk progressed), ATL will have some serious vertical threats that PIT’s below avg secondary will have problems with. PIT’s ST’s can also give up some big yardage, so Hester may be a factor here. This is also the second of 2 straight rd gms for PIT, which is another setup they don’t do well in. ATL is off a short wk, but are amazingly 5-0 ATS on Sunday off MNF. One key “D” stop for ATL or late PIT TO is all they’ll need to take this (ATL has a +5 TO margin on the yr).

PIT 27
ATL 31
5 Units

BOL to all, and as always comments are most welcome.

 

[WormyPix]

Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit GB -4: Well, this is the trap gm of the wk, but I’ll take my chances. Rodgers is on fire, but BUF’s “D” has what it takes, esp @ the Ralph, to contain him. That said, I compare this gm a lot to BUF’s matchup last wk @ DEN. I just think BUF won’t score enough to keep up w/GB. GB has a veteran enough team & good run gm to not lose focus against an inferior team. Loss of S Da’Norris Searcy will only help GB’s talented receivers.

1 Unit CIN +1: Never liked Manziel & there’s no reason other than the “Tebow” factor (where team plays up for their QB) that he’ll move the “O” much better than Hoyer did. I think Marvin Lewis will have his team ready on “D” to contain the rookie enough to pull out a win. This is also a major revenge gm for CIN after getting blown out @ hm by CLE earlier. These 2 teams always split the yr too.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser:

BAL -1
TB +16
DET +5 1/2
DEN/SD Over 37 1/2

 

[United]

Pitt coming off a big 2nd half themselves (w) on the road against a division rival. Both teams in the must win mode. Should be a heck of a game. I would lean with the points in this one, although that Falcon D is scary.

Nothing wrong with liking one of the hottest teams in football (Pack) with one of the best QB's in the game. I really think it's a bad spot for them. I mean they didn't get to coast in that second half last Monday and the short week to boot, and now head into Buff where you just know it's going to be a very physical game. Pack are undefeated at home this year. They are 3-3 on the road. They seem to be more human on the road. Just my opinion on the game.

It wouldn't break my heart one bit if your Dolphins beat the Pats. I would be very surprised, but as we both know, this is the NFL and anything can happen.

Good luck my friend!

 

[jaxfactor]

Good luck today Worm! I like ATL today as well

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[WormyPix]

Pitt coming off a big 2nd half themselves (w) on the road against a division rival. Both teams in the must win mode. Should be a heck of a game. I would lean with the points in this one, although that Falcon D is scary.

Nothing wrong with liking one of the hottest teams in football (Pack) with one of the best QB's in the game. I really think it's a bad spot for them. I mean they didn't get to coast in that second half last Monday and the short week to boot, and now head into Buff where you just know it's going to be a very physical game. Pack are undefeated at home this year. They are 3-3 on the road. They seem to be more human on the road. Just my opinion on the game.

It wouldn't break my heart one bit if your Dolphins beat the Pats. I would be very surprised, but as we both know, this is the NFL and anything can happen.

Good luck my friend!

I like it United, thanks! I hear you on GB, this is a tough gm for them which is why I didn't make them a POW. Definitely wouldn't be shocked if they lost.

See you @ the window!!

 

[WormyPix]

Good luck today Worm! I like ATL today as well

Thanks Jax! Well, Julio is out today so that's a major loss for them. I'm hoping that will help PIT lose even more focus thinking ATL will be a much easier opponent now. But when Roddy has had to step in as the #1 he's delivered. And Douglas is still a threat too. I expect a lot of S-Jax anyway. Let's get this!

Thanks and good luck today my friend!!!!

Thanks for always stopping by XS, BOL to you too!!

 

[WormyPix]

Got PIT's score rt at least. Sigh. Needed ATL to score, & Julio out was huge. Made a mistake here w/all hands not on deck for hm team. Then SD & DEN shut themselves down to doom my teaser. Big loser this wk & hope to recoup Wk 16.

 

[United]

Bounce back next week Wormy Pix!