Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (14)

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Sigh. MIA hits big w/POW, however Teaser goes down in glorious flames thanks to the inept Steelers losing to the mighty Cardinals @ hm. NE just had to kick ONE FG to cover vs LAC, but that was asking too much. The Under for that gm hit in spades tho. TEN seemed to be money in the bag, but a blocked punt TD & blocked PAT allowed gm to go into OT where IND prevailed. Late added gm netted a win w/ATL handling the NYJ dumpster fire.

Regular Season POW 5-8, Teasers 6-10, GOY 0-0, Overall 27-37-2 (29-37-2 Undocumented)

HOU/NYJ Under 33.
Haven’t gone w/a total as POW in a very long time, but this wk’s spreads & matchups aren’t very thrilling to me. One thing that is reliable this wk is the NYJ’s putrid “O” & steady “D”. Zach Wilson returns @ QB because he gives them the best chance to win. However, his 6 TDs to 7 INTs & 73.8 rating can’t be too comforting to Jets fans. But what about Stroud? He’s easily leading the ROY race & amazingly leads the entire NFL in pass yds. But his #s take a massive dip when playing on the rd. Comp %, pypa, rating, & TDs (.8 passing TDs per gm on rd to 2.28 @ hm) all drop on the rd thus far. And now he must compete against the turf monster @ MetLife, & likely rain, 16 mph winds w/25 mph sustained gusts. Oh, & Stroud’s stud WR Tank Dell was lost for the season last wk, TE Schultz is out again, & 3rd WR Noah Brown is nursing a bad knee. Everyone knows about the talented CB duo of Sauce & Reed for NY, who should have no problem keeping the ball in front of them in that weather. It’ll come down to the run gm for the most part, where Breece Hall has been very quiet & now faces the #9 rypg “D” of HOU, & HOU’s own run gm is a miserable 29th in rypc. Both QBs also take a lot of sacks, which runs clock & forces down & distance. W/the weather being a factor, DeMeco Ryans has to be drawing up a conservative gameplan against his former mentor in hopes of taking this key gm for HOU’s PO hopes. Just hoping there aren’t many short fields or “D” TDs which is the only way this gm goes Over. FWIW I feel NYJ take this SU, but I don't have the guts to back Wilson.

HOU 10
NYJ 13
4 Units


GL to all & comments are most welcome.
 

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Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit CLE -3:
Bad weather also projected here w/Flacco likely making his 2nd start. Lawrence a GTD for JAX, but even w/him, this should be a get-rt gm for CLE after an embarrassing loss @ LA.

1 Unit CHI +3 ½ (bought ½): This is definitely a back & forth rivalry, w/DET taking the 1st one this yr, just barely. Fields is so hard to trust, but he somehow has his best rushing gms vs DET. CHI’s “D” has force 7 INTs in their last 2 gms, including 3 on Goff @ DET. C Ragnow is out, along w/stout DT McNeill. Bad weather also projected here, which is not good news for the indoor Lions.

1 Unit CAR +6: Another upset call here w/CAR suddenly playing well on “D”. They are getting healthier on that side of the ball, so as long as Bryce Young can limit the TOs, CAR should win SU in this div rivalry that tends to be close anyway. Carr looks like he’ll play, but he’ll be w/out WR Shaheed.

1 Unit DAL -3 (bought ½): Obvious revenge gm in a heated rivalry @ hm for DAL. DAL may have even been looking ahead to this one slightly, esp on “D”, in their narrow victory last Thurs against SEA. PHI a little beaten up after their slugfest w/SF, so I doubt we’ll see their A-gm here despite this being for the NFC East. PHI’s “D” somehow is the worst against the pass, which is rt up DAL’s alley.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser

CAR +19
TB +15
SF -½
MIA Pk
 

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Adding 2 Units CLE -3: Shoot, after looking @ this gm closer, I didn’t even see that JAX will be w/out starting LT Little & 3 CBs (2 starting CBs). I already suspected CLE’s “D”, esp Garrett who was held w/out a sack last wk, would come out hungry here. Thanks Gravy Train for reminding me.
 

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I like the card, Worm. Especially Dallas.

Have you seen this QB Master Class with Drew Brees on Tua? So fucking psyched!!!!!

 

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W/Pix....solid looking plays buddy....(no Mia. ...i'm on them)
on Clev., and Chi....may add Car.. was well.....
BOL with all your Sun. action my friend....indy
 

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W/Pix....solid looking plays buddy....(no Mia. ...i'm on them)
on Clev., and Chi....may add Car.. was well.....
BOL with all your Sun. action my friend....indy
Indy, MIA lost 34-3 @ TEN 2 seasons ago. Now, cold, rainy weather really affected Tua in that one under Brian Flores regime, but I'm a little worried that MIA is currently the biggest public play on the board, & it's on primetime.

That said, MIA will win SU for sure, & if Tua can limit TOs this should be a patented MIA blowout. BOL!
 

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I like the card, Worm. Especially Dallas.

Have you seen this QB Master Class with Drew Brees on Tua? So fucking psyched!!!!!

Dang, no I didn't. Thanks for sharing! I'll definitely watch after the gms today.

We're so hard on Tua for the mistakes he makes, but when I watch the "elite" QBs play wk to wk, they all make critical, head-scratching errors that lead to INTs, 3rd down incompletions, or missed TD opportunities. But those guys never get flame-sprayed quite like Tua. And when he succeeds or has a great gm, it's only because of McDaniel's "O" & Tyreek.

I tell those guys, look @ Tua's gms 2 seasons ago. He was still getting the ball out quickly & w/high accuracy. Even the deep throws. And he had only Waddle & Gesicki that were truly reliable. And even before them, in his rookie yr, despite bad coaching & DeVante Parker being his only decent receiver (& he was hurt most of the time), the Tua & "O" still looked decent.

Watch how often Jalen Hurts overthrows an open AJ Brown or Devonta Smith. Even Mahomes when he had Tyreek, would make crazy, ill-advised throws or decisions that cost KC the gm (most notably vs CIN 3 yrs ago in AFC championship).
 

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Nice writeups!

On a few myself. Good luck
Thanks BMM. BOL to us then!
Wormy,BOL on the picks today my friend !
Gravy, thanks again for pointing out CLE's "D" today. I hope the high winds continue. Can you imagine Lawrence running away from Garrett on a bad ankle? I'm drooling.
Looks good Wormy! On CAR and CHI as well. Let’s cash!!
Thanks Jax! Let's get it!
Great looking card. gl my friend. Niners it is!
Only got 2 spots left Cash? Can't get more money than SF & MIA this wk. CLE would be the 3rd best, IMO.

BOL partner.
 

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Indy, MIA lost 34-3 @ TEN 2 seasons ago. Now, cold, rainy weather really affected Tua in that one under Brian Flores regime, but I'm a little worried that MIA is currently the biggest public play on the board, & it's on primetime.

That said, MIA will win SU for sure, & if Tua can limit TOs this should be a patented MIA blowout. BOL!
W/Pix....thank you for your thought's buddy.....
it's a big number, and I have some concerns.....
however, the play is in....lol...I'll just close my eyes,,,lol....
here's to you having a great weekend buddy....indy
 

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W/Pix....thank you for your thought's buddy.....
it's a big number, and I have some concerns.....
however, the play is in....lol...I'll just close my eyes,,,lol....
here's to you having a great weekend buddy....indy
Oh, Lol, not much you can do then! Obviously, I'm hoping MIA destroys them! I guess you could say this is a revenge spot for Tua & most of the "D" was in TEN for that last one. And the "D" will be key here. They should be able to contain Levis & King Henry, so it will be up to "O" to score 24+ to cover the #.

Here's to Tyreek running away from that TEN "D" tomorrow! :cheers:
 

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Its never easy ofr the Browns but a win is a win Congrats on that
 

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