Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (13)

[WormyPix]

I can’t stand the Patriots, but was very happy to see them play intelligent football against a talented DET team. Then my dogs went down in tremendous flames as Stanton looked awful against the 12[SUP]th[/SUP] Man & the NYJ are who we thought they were. The weekend was truly salvaged when my teaser hit w/out a sweat & my 2 unit play on BAL in the Monday Nighter was a thrill up to the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] Q where Forsett continued to carry his team. My T-Day pix went a disappointing 1-1 as DET showed up vs the hated Bears, & I realized too late the folly in depending on Kaeperstink @ hm vs surging SEA.

POW 8-4, Teasers 5-7, Overall 33-27-1

BAL (-6) displayed a great gameplan @ NOR where they fully force-fed Forsett (say that 10x fast) throwing NOR’s already weak secondary all out of balance. That W made Harbaugh 6-1 SU & ATS off the bye. I still believe Flacco is a very avg QB who’s buoyed by a good “D”, excellent run gm, & receivers that go get the ball. This is evidenced by BAL’s 43-7 record when he has a QB rating of 90 or higher. SD should continue to allow Flacco to make plays downfield as their “D” is very conquerable to that of NOR’s. Forsett should have another good gm too. Another player really stepping it up this yr is S Will Hill. Seeing him help contain Jimmy Graham was inspirational. Antonio Gates has really struggled to score his last 3 gms & that should continue in BAL. SD is also down to their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] string C, who ended up being rookie guard Chris Watt, a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] rd pick. He actually did well vs STL’s talented dline, but now goes 1 on 1 w/Ngata. The reason why SD can’t afford to give Watt too much help there is because there needs to be a plan for edge rushers Suggs & Dumervil. To add on to SD’s worries on “O” are rookie LB CJ Mosley, who is a tackling machine & force vs the run & pass gm (7 pass defended this yr). Most folks know SD’s gm takes a notch down on the rd, but BAL’s “D” is really a different animal @ hm. Away from M&T BAL is allowing 25.8 ppg while @ hm they’re giving up only 10.6. Take away their stinker vs CIN all the way back in Wk 1 & they’re allowing a scant 7.5 ppg. Want to know SD’s pts allowed on the rd their last 3? 37, 35 & 28. Mathews was a welcome sight last wk for SD, but will have a hard time duplicating that against the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] best run “D” in front of a raucous crowd. This would’ve been a GOY for me, but w/BAL on a short wk & Thanksgiving in the middle of it, we may not be seeing BAL’s best Sunday.

SD 13
BAL 34
5 Units

BOL to all, and as always comments are most welcome.

 

[WormyPix]

Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit MIN -2 1/2: Ron Rivera has looked awful off byes, & I feel that has a lot to do w/Scam Newton too. In the 3 yrs they’ve been together, they’re 0-3 & are losing by 17.8 ppg ATS off the bye. CAR’s “D” has been uncharacteristically bad this yr, but MIN will be only the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] poor “O” they’ve faced so far, w/their Wk 1 matchup @ TB being the other. This is a revenge gm for MIN too as their Cassel-led “O” got demolished by CAR last yr 35-10. New “O”, “D”, & QB will hopefully be the difference here. RB McKinnon looks unlikely to start. We’ll see if new acquisition Ben Tate can resurrect his disappointing season.

1 Unit PIT -4 1/2: Tomlin isn’t very good off a bye too, but this matchup just screams PIT. NOR is off a short wk w/the holiday, but unlike BAL they, NOR goes on the rd to one of the toughest places to play. Winds & rain are forecast as well, which doesn’t bode well for indoor QB Brees. LeVeon Bell should have a good gm vs NOR’s porous run “D”, esp w/NT Bunkley out for the yr.

1 Unit CLE/BUF Under 42 1/2: W/10-20 mph winds & chance for rain projected @ miserable Ralph Wilson, an awe-inspiring QB matchup between Orton & Hoyer, & 2 good “D”s duking it out, this gm is an obvious under.

1 Unit DEN -1: DEN has been very mortal on the rd, but I have a hard time seeing Alex Smith throwing enough downfield to outscore Peyton & co. STL was lucky to take out both Julius & Sanders in that shocker. But Sanders is contributing once again, & Julius has a good chance to return after 2 wks off. W/such a low spread, all DEN has to do is win & I’ll take Peyton over Smith 10 out of 10 times. KC’s run “D” is in the lower half of the league too, so Peyton will take advantage of that as often as possible.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser:

CLE/BUF Under 55 1/2
CIN +9 1/2
PIT +8
DEN +12

 

[TomandJerry]

Wow, I surprise that you put on the score BAL 34-13 SDC. I don't think BAL can score that much, but I do like they cover, something like 26-16.

 

[WormyPix]

Lol, if all goes well, final score should look similar. If you look @ SD's pts given up you'll see they're capable of that & I feel BAL's run gm is better than MIA, DEN & OAK where they gave up greater than 30 pts to each. But, like I said we may see a sloppy gm out of BAL, so your final prediction may come true too.

 

[ca$hmoney]

Fins are gonna serve up a large can of ass woopin on mnf.

 

[WormyPix]

Fins are gonna serve up a large can of ass woopin on mnf.

Oh yeah Cash, you better believe. Damn Jets have always beaten us every yr tho, as our D just seems to go to sleep against whatever excuse for a QB they trudge out there, & Tannehill can't throw the ball to save his life. I really believe they'll be different this time cuz it's a prime time gm so they shouldn't be taking Jets lightly. Mo Wilkerson is out, so Tanny should have even better protection. Prob put a play on them based on how the other big fav's (NYG, CIN & ARI) do this Sunday.

 

[ca$hmoney]

Tanny is the real deal. Lazor has put a chilly pepper up the ass of our offense. Our D is pissed. Look for a sack lunch from Wake , Vernon, and Odrick. This one gets ugly. Bank on it! Good luck Worm!

 

[WormyPix]

Tanny is the real deal. Lazor has put a chilly pepper up the ass of our offense. Our D is pissed. Look for a sack lunch from Wake , Vernon, and Odrick. This one gets ugly. Bank on it! Good luck Worm!

I love it! I'm excited, no doubt. But the same was true when we were supposed to kill them to make POs last yr! I'm cautiously optimistic. Esp with that fool Geno back in. Our secondary made him look like Peyton Manning. Here's to a happy Monday night for us! :toast:

 

[WormyPix]

Sometimes you're on the rt side, & a team just absolutely sabotages it like BAL did today. 4 critical dropped passes including 2 by the normally reliable Steve Smith, plus throw in some bonehead penalties like lining up in neutral zone that kept multiple SD drives alive, & you've got today's outcome. The only silver lining here is that BAL lost SU. You can't make mental errors like that & win in the NFL. It wouldn't have been fair if BAL squeaked out a win playing that sloppy. Ugh, very frustrating. Take those out & BAL would've romped.

 

[United]

WP,

On the road all day and the only football I've watched today is the KC/Denver game right now. I am really surprised that Baltimore went down in that game. I had them as a lean but went with the Giants and that was a loser game too!

Maybe we can hang on with Denver.