Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (11)

Search

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens
What a close shave with CAR last wk. The CAR oline were a bit rusty and Delhomme paid the price for it. However, the CAR "D" did their job for the most part, and so did the OAK "O", despite Walter starting at QB! Phew, glad that one's over. My 4 T.Teaser won as well.

POW now stands at 8-2, with 7 straight wins (a lot of them close to the line like this one was!).

ATL is having a great, turnaround season that is only surpassed by what's happening in MIA. HC Mike Smith is running a well-disciplined team, and OC Mularky is keeping it simple for Ryan while creating a punishing run gm. ATL's "D" is improving, thanks to good secondary work, and moving DE Abraham around the line, creating matchup problems. He has 11 sacks so far (2nd in NFL). They've seen great passing teams in GB, NO, & DET (when they had Kitna/Roy/Calvin) and beaten them all. Their only 3 losses on the season came on the road, and to very balanced "O"s with very good "D"s in TB, CAR, & PHI. Now ATL is at home, vs an all-passing "O" with a crappy "D". More specifically a crappy run "D". DEN fields the 6th worst run "D" (146 rypg), and now will be w/out LB Nate Webster. That is the 3rd starting LB to go down this season. GL trying to stop bruising Michael Turner & FB Mughelli, or the speedster Norwood. That gives ATL the ability to do what they did vs OAK & NO, and that's run the ball which runs out the clock in the 2nd half. Plus, the DEN "D" will only get worse for wear as the gm rolls on, with little depth on "D". Plus, with Champ Bailey still out, this leaves Bly to cover hot Roddy White, who is too fast, and will make people forget about Dre. WR Jenkins should have another good day, vs rookie Jack Williams or 3rd yr man Paymah. DEN's run "O" is in tatters. They just signed former Bronco back Tatum Bell, who was a cell phone store manager after being released by DET. Bagman jokes aside, this won't be good when he's in the gm, because he needs to get his gm legs back, and needs to take NFL-sized hits. I predict a FL for Bell if he sees extended time, which he may for first time starter Hillis. DEN's run gm will get shut down, so it'll be up to hot Jay Cutler to do what he's been doing. But with ATL's "O" on the field all day, I don't see him having many chances to score, with safeties Milloy & Coleman cutting down on the deep plays. So if Cutler throws picks, this could be a runaway. DEN's oline doesn't give up much sacks, but neither does ATL's. And with ATL @ home, where they're 4-0 SU & ATS, and DEN on the long road (2-2 SU & ATS), this looks to continue ATL's dreams of making the playoffs.

DEN 20
ATL 34

GL to all, and comments are always welcome.

:toast:
 

Chomping at the bits
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
8,118
Tokens
I favor ATL to cover as well, but not by much. Denver's only chance will be to outscore ATL, and it will be tough to do with a far inferior run game and defense. The backdoor scares me in this one a little. Because of ATL's run game my numbers are leaning ever so slightly to the Under. BOL this week, hope you nail it!
 

New member
Joined
Sep 30, 2008
Messages
15
Tokens
So I finally got my activation e-mail from the Forum. Do like your POW this week, and will be jumping on it early as the line has been moving up. And love the reference to Dre. Nearly agree 100% here... My only disagreement is that I think the final will be lower - ATL is going to run and run and run. And if anything, that would be my biggest concern: that they let DEN back into the game in the second half if they go too conservative. But ATL should be able to minimize the Royal/Marshall duo and keep things interesting for Cutler behind the line.

As always, GL this weekend. Except for your HOU pick.
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens
Cruncher & Poi, you are 100% correct. ATL is a weak 2nd half team, and the fact DEN came back in the 4th vs CLE, made me look at this one further. But with all the injuries to DEN's "D", I strongly believe ATL runs the dickens out of them, keeping Cutler off the field even in the 4th Q. And unlike Crennel, ATL has a solid coaching staff, so I have greater faith in them. I am worried about Royal & Stokely, as ATL should be focusing on Marshall. I expect Abraham & co to pressure Cutler however.

Cruncher, I think the score will be that due to DEN's big play ability, as well as their giving up big plays ability on "D"! Turner could easily have a similar gm to the one he had vs DET (my ill-fated 1st POW).

BOL guys!
 

Chomping at the bits
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
8,118
Tokens
No doubt this could be a high-scoring affair, I wouldn't bet the Under in a million years. Denver will be forced to stop the run first so the Falcons should have big passing plays available almost all the time. If Atlanta pulls away with a big lead in the 2nd half, though, the Over could be dicey, as then they'll run it anyway, and Denver will have a harder time once the run is not even a semi-viable option for them.
 

Member
Joined
Oct 17, 2004
Messages
3,109
Tokens
Mr. Wormy Picks, it is my pleasure to drop by your very excellent thread. You about hit it on the head. Denver is hurting at this time and Atlanta catches them at the right time. The Falcons will run and run and run and then throw on these Broncos with success. I really like the Falcons to cover here, maybe not by 2 TDs though. There will be some points scored in this game,so I will be evaluating the total. I appreciate you asking for my opinion. I am really not a homie, so I believe I am objective with this pick!! Thanks again!! Good luck to you!!! ATLSLIM
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens
Holy crap, best wishes and agreement from Cruncher, Jetplane, and ATLSLIM.

Thanks for the input fellas! ATL is just a well-coached team, with a good run gm, smart passer, and a now improved "D". All qualities I try to have in my POW's.

Cruncher, you are right about an early lead for ATL. I'm probably not going to touch the total here, and just pray ATL runs away early!

Jet, I hope to goodness this play hits for us. I'll be posting my other plays and teaser as well. BOL to both of us!!

ATLSLIM, thanks for the kind words, and for responding. Fans are usually very insightful with their team, so I felt you would have prudent views on this gm. I've watched 4 of DEN's gms thus far, and only 1 of ATL's. I think ATL continues their home dominance.

:toast:
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens
Well, not as strong as last wk's one, but here's my 4 teamer.

TEN +10
TB +9
ARI +10
PIT +8

My regular plays are:

TEN: Ride that train, esp vs a weaker team than the one they beat 17-10 in wk 1. JAX still rife with injuries and locker room drama.

TB: Gruden off a bye is always attractive, as is MIN outdoors on grass. Speed will be neutralized, and TB expecting Dunn, Graham, and Cadillac to wear down that good MIN "D". Look for Frerotte to throw more picks.

PIT: PIT's problem is they can't run, and Ben gets sacked a lot. Enter SD, who is the worst pass "D" in the land, and PIT gets Parker back to help the run gm. PIT's "D" should have no problem with SD's "O" on the road.

I know Billbeater warned the dogs will bark this sunday, but I strongly believe these fav's will put $$ in everyone's pocket.

BOL all, I hope the books take another hit this sunday!
 
Last edited:

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens

Great to hear! I hope not too much of the public is on this one, but I can't believe that as DEN is still seen as a potent "O". I think all those injuries will be too much to overcome for DEN against a streaking, still-improving ATL.
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens
I'm adding CAR. I think they rebound big at home vs DET with Culpooper making his 2nd start. If JAX can mess DET up that much at home, CAR should do worse. Plus, I think OAK's "D" is better than DET's.

I'm following Jetplane with CHI Over 44 too. Winds are low @ CHI currently, so weather shouldn't be a factor. Both "D"s are weak against the other "O"s strength.
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens
Rough day.

3 things went wrong with ATL. One, their special teams gave up way too much yardage setting up an already good "O" with Cutler. Two, ATL's run "D" made Hillis & Bell look great. DEN really mixed up the "O" good, but the bottom line is ATL could have done waaay better on "D". Three, Ryan showed his rookieness finally with a dumb pick under big pressure. In DEN territory, throwing off his backfoot, he was way short of his WR, and that INT lead to a FG.

My 2 late plays both lost, but fortunately my teaser hit, and so did TEN & TB. Should've made TEN my POW, but hindsight is always 20-20. Then got screwed by "the call" with PIT. Actually, there were many calls in that gm, but that's for another thread!

I hope to get another winner next wk, and start a new streak.
 

Seahawk
Joined
Jan 13, 2007
Messages
13,886
Tokens
It's alright Worm. I started the day 0-3 and came back 2-0 so it's still a losing day. I didn't get to cash in my 3 teamer either >:\ then i looked at my 3rd system... it went 3-0... last week it was 3-1. I'm just an idiot.
 

Banned
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
Messages
8,837
Tokens
Dogs Wormy, Dogs!!!! I thought more would cover today. Minn had a nice shot. Surprised Jax could not get it done....

I did 3-0 well with Saints, San Diego, and teasing saints, sd, minn.

I couldn't pull the trigger on Denver, but ATL has been on a real nice ride so far! They just became due to take one up the ass...

I rooted for your play though Wormy :aktion033
 

Member
Joined
Nov 19, 2006
Messages
3,992
Tokens
LOL! Thanks Bill. DEN definitely wanted that gm more than ATL, overall. ATL did run all over DEN, but DEN did the same!

How's about your Bills tonight? I'm playing the Under.
 

Banned
Joined
Jan 16, 2005
Messages
8,837
Tokens
my footy pool pick is: clev +4.5 (6 out of 9 ats winners so far in week 11, with this one to go)
i dont like the total, just clev. here!

so far 6 win 4 losses on bills predictions... should ca$h. bills are the joke of the division and i feel that Edwards is now showing signs of having the concussion. (he didnt in the SD game however, it took time)

You can Worm it Out! :103631605
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,809
Messages
13,573,401
Members
100,871
Latest member
Legend813
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com