Wormy Pix Pick of the Week (11)

[WormyPix]

KC completed the sweep of the AFC East in a nail biter @ BUF. Unfortunately, Watkins & F-Jax both played unexpectedly & contributed to a closer gm IMO. Thankfully BUF’s decision to play Jackson impacted them this past Thurs as he was unable to go in their snoozer vs MIA. Had a pretty nice day last wk as my only loss was TEN, who came close to covering 10, but that team is just so inept rt now on “O” & “D”.

POW 7-3, Teasers 4-6, Overall 27-21-1

CLE (-3 1/2) is playing inspired ball rt now & are coming off a long wk leading the competitive AFC North (only div to have all winning teams). Hoyer is benefiting from a high run “O” (CLE leads league @ 50%) where play action is deadly as his receivers run across the fake run. The trio of Tate, West & Crowell not only keeps fresh legs in @ all times, they also force the opposing “D” to respect the run regardless of who’s back there. So the uninspiring group of Hawkins, Gabriel, Austin & Dray (Cameron still out w/concussion) does not have to do much, except make key grabs on 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] downs & in the redzone. CLE has sustained a lot of injuries over the yr in the trenches but are beginning to gel again on both sides of the ball. Losing DE Phil Taylor will hurt, but CLE has been playing good team “D” where not one player is making a huge difference. The exception might be S Tashaun Gipson who leads the league in INT’s & is now listed as probable (concussion). He relishes the chance to add to his 6 picks w/first time starter Ryan Mallett taking over for Fitzpatrick. A lot of times that you hear a QB has a rocket arm, normally means he doesn’t have much else. We’ll see how he does after 2 wks of practicing w/the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] team. Missing Arian Foster’s AFC leading rushing will hurt HOU’s “O”. 6[SUP]th[/SUP] rd rookie Alfred Blue looked decent in his only start vs the hapless NYG, but he is nowhere near the factor Foster is. This will allow CLE to get more pressure on Mallett & possibly force TO’s, where CLE has excelled @ in their 3 gm win streak. It comes down to this: CLE’s running should negate HOU’s great pass rush (which other teams have done); cold, snowy, windy weather will support that further, as will a loud Dawg pound; young QB making 1[SUP]st[/SUP] start on the rd in those conditions & w/out his stud RB to help take pressure off. CLE has been very impressive so far against marquee opponents (4-0-1 ATS) & I look for that to continue.

HOU 16
CLE 27
5 Units

BOL to all, and as always comments are most welcome.

 

[WormyPix]

Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit GB -5 1/2: Might be drinking the yellow & green kool-aid here, but I can’t see Mark Sanchez beating Aaron Rodgers @ Lambeau, can you? Sure Chip Kelly’s “O” is the real deal & appears here to stay, but beating Scam Newton & Fitzpatrick is not the same thing here. GB’s “D” is steadily improving, & missing from all the GB hype is Lacy’s running. He’s not scoring, but having a 4 ypc RB behind Rodgers is a major factor. PHI’s “D” giving up 5 more ppg away than @ hm.

1 Unit SEA/KC Under 42: Both “O”s are really uninspiring when up against decent “D”s, & SEA away from hm is even worse. Now they get a taste of their own medicine @ Arrowhead. I highly recommend going on KC too if you have that inkling.

1 Unit ARI -1: Palmer out & Stanton in. Despite league worst comp %, I feel Stanton is more than capable enough to pull out a tight one in front of the hm crowd. ARI’s “D” will be the difference as Stafford looks great in the final seconds of gms but not during the rest. I think their luck finally runs out in the battle for the NFC.

2 Unit Wormy Teaser:

KC +11 1/2
SEA/KC Under 55
DEN +4
ARI +12

 

[United]

Great job on the POW! Cleveland certainly has the edge in this game. I'm hoping for a low scoring game and really would like to see the Browns win. Agree on the Pack at home, as Rodgers and Nelson are on a roll. Zona game kind of scares me. Just got a bad feeling on that one. That Detroit D is for real and not sure how Stanton will handle it. Stafford to Megatron is a dangerous combination. I can't blame anyone for riding Zona and they are at home. Just weird that the line is -1 and a pick it in some spots now.


Good luck Wormy Pix

 

[jaxfactor]

Good luck today Wormy - I like the under in the KC game as well as I believe we'll see KC do a great job against the SEA O-line and I don't see Wilson running wild like he did last week.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

I totally agree with you , I watched every play last week of the browns cincy game ... The browns are not great players but as a group on both sides of the ball thay are a great team. Texas has a lot of talent, but don't seem to able to make the pieces work . Cleveland give you 4 solid quarters of football , Texas maybe 2 on a good day .

 

[WormyPix]

Great job on the POW! Cleveland certainly has the edge in this game. I'm hoping for a low scoring game and really would like to see the Browns win. Agree on the Pack at home, as Rodgers and Nelson are on a roll. Zona game kind of scares me. Just got a bad feeling on that one. That Detroit D is for real and not sure how Stanton will handle it. Stafford to Megatron is a dangerous combination. I can't blame anyone for riding Zona and they are at home. Just weird that the line is -1 and a pick it in some spots now.


Good luck Wormy Pix

Well United, I'm sure the line is low @ ARI for the very reasons you have. This is a huge, non-div gm for both teams, so I give the slight edge to ARI @ hm w/a very similar "D". You're spot on w/Stanton being the wild card here. Obviously he's 2-1 as the starter this yr, but his comp % is worrisome. He's excited to start again & now knows that he has the chance to lead this team to the PO's & beyond. Let's see how he responds.

Thanks for stopping by bro, you're one of the best!

 

[WormyPix]

Good luck today Wormy - I like the under in the KC game as well as I believe we'll see KC do a great job against the SEA O-line and I don't see Wilson running wild like he did last week.

So true Jax! I forgot to mention that KC's "D" is much more fundamentally sound than OAK & NYG where they completely ignored Wilson's running. How is that even possible? But, those LB's just see an open line to the RB & cheat a little inside, & there goes Wilson. I expect Reid to have coached up on that this wk & contain Lynch as well. It'll likely be a tight one, however SEA was lucky w/TO's vs NYG, so if KC can cash in on those, this might be a rout.

 

[WormyPix]

Good luck today my friend!!!!

Thanks XS, same to you buddy!

I totally agree with you , I watched every play last week of the browns cincy game ... The browns are not great players but as a group on both sides of the ball thay are a great team. Texas has a lot of talent, but don't seem to able to make the pieces work . Cleveland give you 4 solid quarters of football , Texas maybe 2 on a good day .

Sounds like a plan, S$F. Also Clowney returns for HOU, but will likely only see 3rd down work. He may have an impact there, but most of CLE's 3rd downs are short yardage thanks to their runs, so they're likely run again! And that's how you negate a great pass rush. As long as Hoyer doesn't repeat his great performance vs JAX (still steamed about that), this should be an easy one.

 

[WormyPix]

Absolutely disgusting day. HOU got momentum early & never lost it. Hoyer is to blame, but receivers dropped a lot of balls & made zero plays. HOU was the one that ran well w/Blue & Grimes. Mallett made the passes he needed to. Exactly what I expected from CLE.

Then Julius Thomas & Sanders get hurt early to help kill any comeback hopes. DEN should be concerned. MIA "D" may give Peyton problems too if he looks like that again. Sad.