World is 'very close' to swine flu pandemic says WHO

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http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090609/health/health_flu_who_pandemic

By The Canadian Press

TORONTO - The World Health Organization says it is very close to declaring that the swine flu outbreak is a pandemic.


The WHO's top flu expert says it's clear that the virus is spreading in the community in parts of Australia, which is a sign the agency has been looking for to declare the outbreak a pandemic.


Dr. Keiji Fukuda says the WHO is working with countries trying to help them get ready for a pandemic declaration.


He says the WHO is concerned that the declaration not lead to a blossoming of anxiety and that countries not react with actions that aren't needed at this point.


Fukuda also says the WHO is very concerned about reports from Manitoba where it appears that aboriginal populations are being hard hit by the infection.


He says that is the type of development that was seen in previous pandemics.
 

That settles it...It's WED/DAY
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What will kill us first, swine flu or North Korea? We might as well all jump out windows now and claim or 69 virgins.


:cripwalk:
 

Oh boy!
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Pandemic means that it has spread to most parts of the world. Fortunately there is a very low death rate from this particular flu. According to the WHO there have been more than 26,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1, or swine flu, in 73 countries, with 140 deaths.
 

I'll be in the Bar..With my head on the Bar
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Values and Ethical Principles to Consider in Public Health
Autonomy
Civil liberties
Harm principle
Reciprocity
Transparency
Accountability
Due process

We will be so screwed.......
 

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Pandemic means that it has spread to most parts of the world. Fortunately there is a very low death rate from this particular flu. According to the WHO there have been more than 26,000 laboratory-confirmed cases of H1N1, or swine flu, in 73 countries, with 140 deaths.

Actually the death rate is about twice the rate of a 'typical' flu season. The average year is one death for every 400 cases, this one is more like one for every 200. It's not the killer we were led to believe it was when first reported.
 
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http://www.bangkokpost.com/breakingnews/145756/who-alert-system-needs-repair

WHO alert system 'needs' repair

By: AFP
Published: 10/06/2009 at 11:45 PM

Even as the World Health Organisation (WHO) is poised to declare a swine flu pandemic, health experts said Wednesday the agency's alert system was in need of a fix.

They found fault with the system's design, saying it had initially helped breed unease or panic, which was followed by complacency when the H1N1 viral strain proved to be less nasty than feared.

Under WHO's six-stage approach, a pandemic occurs when a new flu strain that spreads easily among humans and causes serious illness spreads and becomes infectious in at least two regions of the world.

But the system lacks any index of virulence or lethality, thus fuelling confusion among people who equate "pandemic'' with a high death rate, said some specialists.

"One really wants to assess separately the extent of spread and the severity of infection,'' said Christopher Fraser, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London and lead author of a study published last week in Science on the new virus's pandemic potential.

"It is likely that we will see an adjective describing severity being introduced into the classification system,'' he told AFP.

One model might be the system adopted by the US government in 2007.

Inspired by the five-step scale used to measure the intensity of hurricanes, the Pandemic Severity Index also has five categories, based on the ratio of infections to deaths, called the "case-fatality ratio.''
A ratio of less that 0.1 percent is Category 1, whereas 2.0 percent of higher means Category 5.

The study led by Fraser calculated that 23,000 persons had been infected by late April in Mexico, the epicentre of the swine flu outbreak, which would yield a fatality rate of about 0.4 percent.

That is comparable to the pandemic of 1957, which killed about four million people worldwide.
But it is far less than the terrifying Spanish flu of 1918, which claimed about 50 million victims, according to WHO figures.

Virologists caution that the current H1N1 virus could mutate over the coming months and roar back in more virulent form, has happened with previous pandemics.

Another point is that assessing severity is difficult, especially when many or most flu cases in an outbreak are mild and may go unreported.

As of June 5, for example, the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control (CDC) logged 27 fatalities and a total of 13,271 cases spanning all 50 states and Puerto Rico.

But only one in 20 infections are likely to have been identified, and most people recovered without even knowing they had swine flu, the CDC experts said.

"The current system was constructed with avian influenza in mind,'' noted George Dehner, an assistant professor at Wichita State University who has compared national and international responses to the major flu pandemics over the last century.

H5N1 bird flu, which erupted among poultry in Southeast Asia in 2003, has killed some 250 people.

The fear is that it could pick up genes making it as contagious as it is lethal.

"Bird flu has a very high mortality rate'' -- about 60 percent -- "so the expectations of the phase alert system was that an emerging pandemic would be readily visible, making it relatively easy to identify the transition from one phase to phase,'' said Dehner.

Another criticism voiced Wednesday was that the swine flu pandemic is already a fact and moving to the sixth highest level of alert would not have a big impact on preparedness.

"The decision to declare a pandemic seems marginal. By the WHO's own definition -- a virus spreading to more than one world region -- we already have that,'' commented Nigel Dimmock, a emeritus professor at the University of Warwick in Britain.

Several experts said that the WHO system worked very well in the initial stages, helping to draw attention to the problem and spur action.

"The WHO were very quick on the ball, they sparked activities by national authorities _ their first reaction could not have been better,'' said Albert Osterhaus of the Erasmus Centre at the University of Rotterdam.

Antoine Flahault, director of the School for Advances Studies in Public Health in Rennes, France, argued the alert system had to remain "flexible'' in order to incorporate new findings.

"We must not take this as a rigid protocol that has to be followed to the last detail. It must be constantly reviewed and adjusted,'' he said
 

A Separate Reality
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Since when does The Who dictate medical practice? They peaked with Tommy.

@)
 

I'll be in the Bar..With my head on the Bar
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I haavent seen the plan so im talking 2nd hand but the way ive heard it goes is like this. At 1 million U.S. deaths the Pres declares a pandemic and HomeLand Security becomes in control of the entire country...Their authority exceeds even the Supreme Court at that point....

At some other point if the pandemic is declared global then ALL functions of HomeLand Security become controlled by the WHO.......

Read something else interesting today....The U.S has never been referred to in ANY document as a HomeLand until the Patriot Act.....And every country that has been taken over by a Dictatorship was done so supposedly in Defense of the....HomeLand. Again i just read it...not documented fact...i guess its kind of like i heard it from a Democrat..I read it so it must be true.
 
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http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/18291/pattaya-ups-flu-alert-level


"...the World Health Organisation yesterday told member nations it was declaring a H1N1 pandemic - the first global flu epidemic in 41 years..."

"Worldwide, 74 countries have officially reported 27,737 A(H1N1) infection cases to the WHO, including 141 deaths.

"What is a pandemic? Flu pandemics occur when a strain of the flu virus mutates into a new form that can spread from human to human and to which people have no natural immunity. Because there is no widespread immunity to the new strain of H1N1, its effects are worse than the normal flu. It is also difficult to predict which age groups will be worst hit by a pandemic strain.
 

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As previously mentioned, the seasonal flu kills roughly 50,000 persons a year. At the current rate, this N1 will kill less than a 1000.

Good thing the WHO isn't try to cause a panic.
 

And if the Road Warrior says it, it must be true..
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US passes million swine flu cases


<!-- S BO --> <!-- S IIMA --> <table width="226" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr><td>
_45980337_-3.jpg
Dr Anne Schuchat of the CDC says swine flu may worsen come autumn

</td></tr> </tbody></table> <!-- E IIMA --> <!-- S SF -->US health officials estimate that at least one million Americans have been infected with swine flu since the H1N1 virus emerged nearly three months ago.
The number is far higher than cases actually reported to the authorities.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said many cases were mild, although 127 people had died.
The CDC based its figures on surveys, rather than laboratory evidence, but the numbers suggest the death rate from swine flu is lower than thought.
<!-- E SF -->"We're saying that there have been at least a million cases of the new H1N1 virus so far this year in the United States," said Anne Schuchat of the CDC.
"Reported cases are really just the tip of the iceberg."
The CDC has based its estimate on mathematical modelling, based on surveys by health officials.
If the figures are correct, it is reassuring news, because it indicates that the fatality rate from swine flu is even lower than thought, says BBC medical correspondent Fergus Walsh.
However, Dr Schuchat warned that swine flu might exhibit higher infection rates than seasonal flu and could return in a more virulent form in the autumn.
Argentina election
According to the CDC, there have been 27,717 confirmed or probable cases; some 3,000 people have needed hospital treatment and there have been 127 deaths.
<!-- S IIMA --> <table width="226" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr><td>
_45980351_-12.jpg
Argentina's hospitals are coming under pressure

</td></tr> </tbody></table> <!-- E IIMA --> Swine flu continues to affect mainly people under 50 years of age, with many of those worst affected having underlying health problems such as asthma or diabetes.
The average age of those who died in the US is 37.
Officials from the CDC and the World Health Organization are watching outbreaks in the southern hemisphere, in particular in Argentina, Chile and Australia, to see how the H1N1 virus has been spreading during the winter months and whether it is likely to become more virulent.
Argentina's health ministry has registered 26 deaths attributed to swine flu, and 1,587 cases. Officials are advising people to try to leave space between each other as they line up to vote in legislative elections on Sunday.
Chilean health authorities say there have been 6,211 cases and 12 deaths.
In Australia, there have been five swine-flu related deaths, all of patients with existing medical conditions, and 3,677 cases, according to official figures.
The H1N1 virus first emerged in April in Mexico, which has recorded 116 deaths and 8,279 cases, according to the WHO.
On 11 June, the WHO declared a global flu pandemic, meaning that swine flu virus was spreading in at least two regions of the world.
Officials stressed that this did not mean the virus was causing more severe illness or more deaths.
According to the latest figures from the WHO, there have been 263 deaths and nearly 60,000 cases in some 100 countries and territories.
 

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