World Cup Wobbler Bet

[winbet]

I've posted this in the Off-shore for maximum feedback, once enough has seen it, we will go back to the Soccer Dungeon. Many Moons ago a Pro introduced me to this Soccer Anorak who's particular bet he claimed he was cleaning up with. In the proceeding 11 Bets before he went missing, never to be seen again, I hit the Jackpot Once and the 2nd place 4 times for a profit 2 1/2 times stake. Since then I must have done this 20 times, hitting 2nd place only 3 times, however showing a small profit. So the Odds of it copping on the World Cup is against us, just that you know.

Basically its a correct score Bet of 4 X 3 Team Parlay, 1 X 4 Team Parlay, with 2 scores in each Match, making 32 X 3's and 16 X 4 Team = 48 Bets staked. In order to Draw, you need 3 correct scores which pays a minimum of 215, 4 for the maximum which pays minimum 2000.

Although I havent his Handicapping skills, his bet was based on the 4 best Defences winning a Match 1-0, 2-0 or 2-0, 3-0, the tricky part. So to begin with, We need to decide which 4 Teams qualify for our Bet. Strictly on Goals allowed against Games in qualifiers,
Serbia
France
Spain
Sweden
Ukraine, come out best but of course there is always strength of opposition etc and countless other things to take into account. So bear in mind We need 4 Teams to keep a clean sheet for one certain game in the group stage to start. Any thoughts, dont be shy.

 

[valueman]

Don't you think any potential edge that this theory may hold would be negated by the ridiculously high margins on correct score bets multiplied by the fact that it is a multiple.

I find it VERY hard to look at this seriously.

 

[winbet]

Value,
Long time no talk, hope all is well and your having a good break till your season starts again. Yes, in theory you are 100% correct and 20 bets in 10 years isnt exactly going overboard but it is The World Cup. The way this geezer bet, he was basically maximising the value of those prices, whether I or Us can do that remains to be seen, but I feel the template is there and I can vouch for its success. :drink:

BTW, you can bet them individually for the best Odds as you know, we have experience in that line.

 

[winbet]

Just bump this up to see if there is any opinions. I can go on my own research but I would like it to be a Team effort. All I am asking for now is opinions on Defences and their chances of shutting out a particular opponent in the Group Stage.

 

[Duckstabber]

Sorry Winbet, not much help from me. Like valueman said any potential edge is more than likely offset by the high margins on these types of bets.

Anyway, good luck to you, sir.

 

[szlem]

I tried something like that on French 1st division and it wasn't worth it. However World Cup may be the different story. But aiming for picking exact score (I want to think about it more seriously) is one thing and multiplying it by 4 is totally different

one thing's for sure, if you heat it the payout will be huuuuge

 

[peskypup]

high margins

if you can access Betfair you will find that correct score markets in all main leagues are extremely tight, often close to a 100% book. There is the 4 to 5% commission but even so there is terrific value.

Correct score betting on Betfair is in my view heavily in favour of the backer not the layer. However, I haven't personally managed to find a way to win on it!

 

[JackDee]

will get back to you as soon as i get the, ANY, time.