I will take a AHC+0 bet, so if the game end in a tie, I'll get my money back.
All I wanted to point out was the fact, that imo this ain't your typical "freeze out" scenario because there will be a huge difference in opponents quality depending on finishing 1st or 2nd. In addition to that, even if they lose by 1 goal, France still would have to win by at least 3 goals to advance, because right now URU is +3, MEX +2 and France -2 in goal difference. So unless France is already up by 2 goals, there would be no need to play for a tie in the last 20min or so. I can see this game easily end 0-0 every single day (without a scenario like now), since URUs defense is pretty damn good and MEX is solid defensively, too, for most parts.
But I just don't get the huge line move for the draw under these circumstances.
And since I'm German, I know enough games, that fit your description. Probably the most famous in Germany being the game between Germany and Austria back in 1982, when Germany won 1-0 in their final game, both teams advanced with that result and Algeria got eliminated...and both teams pretty much stopped playing for the remainder of that game after Germany scored the go-ahead goal.