World Cup Qualifying for 11-17

quantumleap · Nov 16, 2004

I think the WCQ is my favorite series to cap. The teams are wide apart in talent sometimes. It takes a little skill to determine the difference between the line and the talent.

Romania -1 and -1.5 -108 over Armenia
I like to take motivation into consideration when making my picks. Romania is tied with Finland in Group One and are 2 points ahead of Holland. They will want a victory here against weaklings Armenia. I feel the line is off here due to Armenia being at home. However, Armenia is yet to score at home in their 0-2 loss to Finland and their 0-3 loss to the Czech Republic. Their losses on the road have been just as lopsided as they have scored only 1 goal in WCQ play. This line may also be low due to Romania's many injuries. However Adrian Mutu was able to join them this week after being banned from the EPL due to testing positive for cocaine.

Latvia/Liechtenstein over 2.5 -106
Latvia has gone under 2.5 once in 4 matches while Liechtenstein has not had a match in WCQ play go under that number.

Kazakhstan/Greece under 3 and 3.5 -109
The reason I believe this is so high is because Kazakhstan was beaten 4-0 by Turkey. The Greeks however do not score as much as the Turks both in WCQ and the European Championships.

Lithuania -2 -111 over San Marino
San Marino is a team that hasn't scored a goal in WCQ play. Lithuania beat them 4-0 in Lithuania. This game will provide Lithuania a chance to get 3 points with a win as they vie for top spot with Serbia & Montenegro who are 2 points ahead of them in the tables.

quantumleap · Nov 17, 2004

Sorry for the late addition. I was looking through the totals more carefully and found one that stood out amongst the rest.

Czech Republic/Macedonia under 2.5 and 3 -119
I feel the reason this one is so high is because of the Czech's recent 3-0 win over Armenia. One goal was from a free kick and Armenia has given up 11 goals in 4 matches. Other than that match, the Czechs have scored 1 goal in 2 matches.

Macedonia, on the other hand, is in a bit of a turmoil after allowing Andorra to win for the first time 1-0. Macedonia scored 3 goals at home against (guess who?) Armenia but have only scored 3 goals in 5 matches other than the Armenian match.

Egis · Nov 17, 2004

quantumleap said:
Lithuania -2 -111 over San Marino
San Marino is a team that hasn't scored a goal in WCQ play. Lithuania beat them 4-0 in Lithuania. This game will provide Lithuania a chance to get 3 points with a win as they vie for top spot with Serbia & Montenegro who are 2 points ahead of them in the tables.

Lithuania without 2 main forwards: E.Jankauskas (Nice) and R.Poskus (Krylja Sovetov). Also starting goalkeeper Z.Karcemarskas (Dinamo Moscow) is missing. Lithuania is going to play only with one real forward T.Danilevicius (Livorno), but he has not enough practice, because he's sitting on the bench in Serie A.
By local bookie I have +2.5 on San Marino. I not decided yet, but I think about it or better to stay away from it.

Egis · Nov 17, 2004

Egis said:
Also starting goalkeeper Z.Karcemarskas (Dinamo Moscow) is missing.

He's going to play despite an injury.

jus000 · Nov 17, 2004

I agree with you on your picks and wish you the best. I really do like Romania as well today. Armenia has lost all their games by atleast 2 goals and I feel they will recieve another beating today. They are definitely going to lose, I am just hoping Romania can whack um by 2. It is an important game for them to win. Who is all missing for Romania?

jus000 · Nov 17, 2004

well, Romania is up 1-0 at the half. Hopefully they can net atleast another and not give anything up. Man, it sucks, looks like Mutu is not playing. Good luck for the rest of the games!

quantumleap · Nov 17, 2004

jus000 said:
I agree with you on your picks and wish you the best. I really do like Romania as well today. Armenia has lost all their games by atleast 2 goals and I feel they will recieve another beating today. They are definitely going to lose, I am just hoping Romania can whack um by 2. It is an important game for them to win. Who is all missing for Romania?

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/headlinenews?id=316034&cc=5901

"FRF spokesman Paul Zaharia said the latest setback had come from Italy where skipper Cristian Chivu of AS Roma has had to undergo surgery for a toe injury.

Steaua Bucharest defender Mirel Radoi and team mate midfielder Florentin Dumitru both have knee injuries and will miss the match along with several other players, including Adrian Mutu, who are either injured or suspended."

quantumleap · Nov 17, 2004

Egis said:
Lithuania without 2 main forwards: E.Jankauskas (Nice) and R.Poskus (Krylja Sovetov). Also starting goalkeeper Z.Karcemarskas (Dinamo Moscow) is missing. Lithuania is going to play only with one real forward T.Danilevicius (Livorno), but he has not enough practice, because he's sitting on the bench in Serie A.
By local bookie I have +2.5 on San Marino. I not decided yet, but I think about it or better to stay away from it.

Thanks for the injury report Egis.

I believe this is to our advantage when the line gets adjusted too much one way for injuries. I believe the players who will be replacing the injured players are still much better than the San Marino players. The important point here is that this is an important situation for a win.

MadCapper · Nov 17, 2004

I followed you with Romania.

You think they can net another goal?

quantumleap · Nov 17, 2004

MadCapper said:
I followed you with Romania.

You think they can net another goal?

I would like to think they would get an insurance goal here to prevent Armenia from getting the tie on a fluke goal. On the other hand, I've seen teams be happy with a 1-goal victory and play defense for the 2nd half.

MadCapper · Nov 17, 2004

Well lets hope they score one more!!

Need it

Thanx!

jus000 · Nov 17, 2004

quantumleap said:
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/headlinenews?id=316034&cc=5901

"FRF spokesman Paul Zaharia said the latest setback had come from Italy where skipper Cristian Chivu of AS Roma has had to undergo surgery for a toe injury.

Steaua Bucharest defender Mirel Radoi and team mate midfielder Florentin Dumitru both have knee injuries and will miss the match along with several other players, including Adrian Mutu, who are either injured or suspended."

cool, thank you. I hope we can get one more with Romania. Good luck!

jus000 · Nov 17, 2004

wonderful....just wonderful...

quantumleap · Nov 17, 2004

1-1 now. Come on Romania. You guys need a good victory here.

MadCapper · Nov 17, 2004

Thanx anyway.

DAMNIT!

quantumleap · Nov 17, 2004

I know what you mean. Dammit!

Let's get the rest of them.

quantumleap · Nov 17, 2004

Results:

Romania 1, Armenia 1 (loss)
Latvia 3, Liechtenstein 1 (win)
Greece 3, Kazakhstan 1 (loss)
Lithuania 1, San Marino 0 (Loss)
Czech Republic 2, Macedonia 0 (win)

I thought we were going to get the Greece match a win but there were 2 late goals.

Egis · Nov 17, 2004

Egis said:
Lithuania without 2 main forwards: E.Jankauskas (Nice) and R.Poskus (Krylja Sovetov). Also starting goalkeeper Z.Karcemarskas (Dinamo Moscow) is missing. Lithuania is going to play only with one real forward T.Danilevicius (Livorno), but he has not enough practice, because he's sitting on the bench in Serie A.
By local bookie I have +2.5 on San Marino. I not decided yet, but I think about it or better to stay away from it.

Lithuania won...
Me too

quantumleap · Nov 18, 2004

Nice call Egis. It's tough to tell when the big favorites will really come to play or whether they will be happy with a small victory. Portugal beat Luxembourg 5-0. I was thinking about betting on Russia since they lost 7-1 against Portugal. I didn't know if they would fold or whether they would come out against Estonia. They won 4-0. Mexico beat St. Kitts & Nevis something like 7-0 one week and only won 1-0 the next week against the same team.

I guess I'll stay away from these. It's all a learning experience.

Net for the series: -1.22

Overall record: 11 series won, 6 series lost, 1 series draw.