Word of caution

[TheBud]

Everyone jumpin hard on PIT v HOU O 10.5 ??

HOU at home when the total is 10-10.5, over is 0-6!

0-15 over the past 3 seasons!

Could not belive this trend...

 

[RDTrains]

2 years yes, 3 years no

HOUSTON is 12-0 UNDER (+12.0 Units) at home when the total is 10 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 3.8, OPPONENT 2.8 - (Rating = 4*)


HOUSTON - Team Situational Trends at home when the total is 10 or higher Last 3 Years - 13-5 +7.9 units

 

[eraser76]

seen at least 3 threads with a top play on houston over def/ be on the under now for a least 1 unit maybe more

 

[woodypaige]

If you look at all those games, there were good pitchers playing. Tonight you have 2 guys that are filling in from Triple A that has been rocked every game this year.

 

[TheBud]

The last three games went under the total In Pit as well... I've seen everyone on a few diff forums all over this play... not saying pick the under, but just stay away...

 

[eraser76]

this one of them games where some how some way it ends up being 4-3 or 5-4 type game both teams are struggling offense right now. thinking upgrading to *5 the more people argue the over the more I love it good luck one of us wins BIG i gues!

 

[woodypaige]

Also past trends are useless because teams are different. Look at the Braves and Washington game the other day. Every trend favored Atlanta at home. They were -200 and got crushed, giving up 14 runs very early.

 

[eraser76]

this game has the highest % on one side total I have seen in a very long time you know what that means about 80% of the time its a loser i take my chances 8 out of 10 anyday

2008-07-21 PITTSBURGH PIRATES 10 10.5 +138 5% 13% 96% Click Here
20:05 EST HOUSTON ASTROS -1.5 -148 95% 87% 4%

 

[TheBud]

In the past 20 minutes the O 10.5 line has moved from -117 to -114...

 

[eraser76]

begging for more over money ~ should be going up not down this shapping up to be a rather large play for me. everywhere i look its on everyone top play . these teams are not scoring over 10 today no way no how when numbers look to good to be true 8 or 9 times out of 10 its a loser

 

[TheBud]

Also past trends are useless because teams are different. Look at the Braves and Washington game the other day. Every trend favored Atlanta at home. They were -200 and got crushed, giving up 14 runs very early.

Alot of people saw that coming though, I have not seen 1 person post a pick on the under in this game...

 

[eraser76]

this game reminding me of the rockies on saturday when everybody on there brother was on over 11 and sure it looked good at first then you saw what went down same shit tonight


Final 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E

Pittsburgh 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 1

Colorado 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 X 7 13 1



WP: J. De La Rosa (4-5)
LP: Y. Herrera (0-1)





Box Score - Recap - MLB.TV Archive

 

[krk1030]

Didnt look back but i recall these 2 teams playing about 2 weeks ago and every game was like 6-4 in the 3rd inning.

 

[eraser76]

yes thats probably why everybody on the over rarely do you see the same games play out exactly the same way 2 times in a row

 

[TheBud]

Didnt look back but i recall these 2 teams playing about 2 weeks ago and every game was like 6-4 in the 3rd inning.

3 Game Series in Pitt


<TABLE class=datatable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=gametext>07/09</TD><TD class=gametext>Nat</TD><TD class=gametext>vs HOUSTON</TD><TD class=gametext>VAN BENSCHOTEN JOHN</TD><TD class=gametext>+115</TD><TD class=gametext>10.5</TD><TD class=gametext align=left>-2</TD><TD class=gametext>Loss</TD><TD class=gametext>Under</TD><TR bgColor=#f7f7f7><TD class=gametext>07/08</TD><TD class=gametext>Nat</TD><TD class=gametext>vs HOUSTON</TD><TD class=gametext>SNELL IAN</TD><TD class=gametext>-130</TD><TD class=gametext>10.5</TD><TD class=gametext align=left>1</TD><TD class=gametext>Win</TD><TD class=gametext>Under</TD><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD class=gametext>07/07</TD><TD class=gametext>Nat</TD><TD class=gametext>vs HOUSTON</TD><TD class=gametext>DUMATRAIT PHILLIP</TD><TD class=gametext>-125</TD><TD class=gametext>9.5</TD><TD class=gametext align=left>3</TD><TD class=gametext>Win</TD><TD class=gametext>Over</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[eraser76]

the game was 7/7 at pitts
one team has a bad night and dont take nothing for this to go under even its a shut out one way or the other 8-0 9-0 or one of them 4-3 5-4 type games 10.5 just screams so easy over that you wanna unload on the under here%^_

RUNELVYS HERNANDEZ - Recent Starts
Date Opponent Score Line Total Result Dec IP R ER H HR BB SO Opp Starter
7/7/2008 at PITTSBURGH 7-10 +115 9.5 Loss,Over L 4 10 10 13 2 4 3 DUMATRAIT(L)
7/2/2008 LA DODGERS 1-4 -110 9 Loss,Under L 5 4 3 6 1 2 4 KURODA(R)
6/27/2008 BOSTON 1-6 +135 9.5 Loss,Under L 5 3 3 5 1 3 5 MATSUZAKA

 

[CHITOWNODAWG]

Looks Too Good Too Be True There Are 2 Way Better Games On The Board To Soar Over

 

[woodypaige]

the game was 7/7 at pitts
one team has a bad night and dont take nothing for this to go under even its a shut out one way or the other 8-0 9-0 or one of them 4-3 5-4 type games 10.5 just screams so easy over that you wanna unload on the under here%^_

RUNELVYS HERNANDEZ - Recent Starts
Date Opponent Score Line Total Result Dec IP R ER H HR BB SO Opp Starter
7/7/2008 at PITTSBURGH 7-10 +115 9.5 Loss,Over L 4 10 10 13 2 4 3 DUMATRAIT(L)
7/2/2008 LA DODGERS 1-4 -110 9 Loss,Under L 5 4 3 6 1 2 4 KURODA(R)
6/27/2008 BOSTON 1-6 +135 9.5 Loss,Under L 5 3 3 5 1 3 5 MATSUZAKA

Hey bud, I guess you never got to see Van Benschoten pitch in person. If you did, you'd bet the over. He shouldn't even be in the Pro's. He just might give up 11 himself.........
Did you see what Duke did yesterday. He gave up 9 runs in the 4th inning, and he is 10X better than JVB.

 

[TheBud]

Hey bud, I guess you never got to see Van Benschoten pitch in person. If you did, you'd bet the over. He shouldn't even be in the Pro's. He just might give up 11 himself.........
Did you see what Duke did yesterday. He gave up 9 runs in the 4th inning, and he is 10X better than JVB.

I hear ya Woodrow, it just looks too good to be true and IMO doesn't warrant people droppin 10+ units on it... I could just see it end up 7-3 HOU....

 

[seriousaddiction]

under 10.5 for meeeeee


IMO the over play tonight is on texas