Woodbine / Thistledowns 6-30-2017

[Prof_Factor]

Woodbine 6-30-2017

Queen's Plate on Sunday.


race #1 - 6.5f
#6 8-1 MAUNA KEA - in good form
#4 3-1 STARSHIP SABRINA - works suggest ready
#3 6-1 GEOCENTRIC - jock+
... very competitive field, all with a shot.

race #2 - 5f
#7 8-1 EGYPTIAN DANCER - all of Dam's offspring have each won their debuts.
#4 5-2 MONSOON RAIN - blazing works, should be favorite.
#5 4-1 MOKA LATTE - Uncle Mo sired
... field of unraced 2yos!!

race #3 - 8.5f
#3 6-1 TIMINGISEVERYTHING - might get the pace to run at
#5 8-1 DIVINE DANCE - player if ready
#6 10-1 CUMMINGS ROAD - Emma might have made a mistake jumping off.
... wide open race, all with a decent chance.

race #4 - 8f turf
#10 10-1 HEAD HUNTER - taking a shot
#4 3-1 CAPE ROCO
#1 6-1 RED ROMEO
... very tuff turf race, track labeled Good.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Woodbine 6-30-2017

Queen's Plate on Sunday.


race #1 - 6.5f
#6 8-1 MAUNA KEA - in good form
#4 3-1 STARSHIP SABRINA - works suggest ready
#3 6-1 GEOCENTRIC - jock+
... very competitive field, all with a shot.

race #2 - 5f
#7 8-1 EGYPTIAN DANCER - all of Dam's offspring have each won their debuts.
#4 5-2 MONSOON RAIN - blazing works, should be favorite.
#5 4-1 MOKA LATTE - Uncle Mo sired
... field of unraced 2yos!!

race #3 - 8.5f
#3 6-1 TIMINGISEVERYTHING - might get the pace to run at
#5 8-1 DIVINE DANCE - player if ready
#6 10-1 CUMMINGS ROAD - Emma might have made a mistake jumping off.
... wide open race, all with a decent chance.

race #4 - 8f turf
#10 10-1 HEAD HUNTER - taking a shot
#4 3-1 CAPE ROCO
#1 6-1 RED ROMEO
... very tuff turf race, track labeled Good.

race #5 - 8.5f
#7 5-2 GIZMO JONES - logical but don't like absence of DaSilva.
#9 8-1 DOSTOYEVSKY - improving
#8 7-2 EMPTY THREATS - new pilot

race #6 - 6f turf
#11 10-1 MIZZONA
#6 3-1 MATCHING VOWS
#10 8-1 ISABELLA A

race #7 - 7f
#5 8-1 JUST BE KIND
#2 5-2 NESHAMA
#7 3-1 BELLA FIGURA
#3 20-1 WESTLODGE INTRIGUE - exotic booster, lone speed could prove tough to reel in.

race #8 - 6f turf
#6 3-1 BUTLER'S PICK
#12 12-1 THREE RING CIRCUS
#9 10-1 GROM

 

[Prof_Factor]

Thistledowns 6-30-2017

Last post was Thistledowns : bad .... favorite won every race and we didn't have enough winners to counter low pays.


race #1 - 5.5f
#3 5-2 DREAMY EYES - pick to click

race #2 - 6f
#1 5-2 COURAGOUS CHRIS - logical
#4 8-1 SPUN DIAMOND - eligible to improve
#6 7-2 CALISI'S WARRIOR

race #3 - 5.5f
#3 4-1 TIZ A RUSH - works look good
#4 6-1 FUNNEL CAKE - Amoss shipper
... 2yos, many firsters.

race #4 - 6f
#7 20-1 LEGION OF BOOM - bomb alert, in easier
#10 6-1 OVERSTAND - likely contender
#5 15-1 NIMBLE TIGER - exotic booster, deep closer is usually too late on seen but does get jock+ so surprise not out of the question.

race #5 - 8f
#5 7-2 BIG KICK
#8 3-1 FIRST GROWTH
#2 10-1 TALES OF WAR

race #6 - 6f
#8 9-2 DEANIRA - speedy
#11 4-1 QUEEN OF SILENCE - Bracho combo 2 for 2
#9 6-1 WHERESTHEPRENUPT
#3 20-1 THREE REPS FINALLY - exotic booster

race #7 - 6f
#4 7-2 TANGO LIMA - knows how to win.
#1 3-1 KYLES MARIGOLD - super solid, post only negative.
#3 5-2 MOONSHINE PROMISE - logical

race #8 - 6f
#6 5-1 CIRCUS PARK - seems to be improving.
#3 4-1 FORESTER'S DIVA - logical
#11 6-1 PERFECT QUESTION


FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!

 

[Lt1]

Good luck Prof. I'm debating whether to look at Woodbine Sunday since I've never looked at it before. Could prove interesting

 

[Gravy]

Prof,Nice hit at Thisledown in Race 2 and how do you play your races by the way ?

 

[Prof_Factor]

Prof,Nice hit at Thisledown in Race 2 and how do you play your races by the way ?

That depends on the race and track.
Looking for value.
Straight win is priority ... if top pick is fair value then win bet. Amount can change from 1/2 unit to 2 units.
Any pick going as longshot gets win bet (excluding "exotic boosters") and are no longer used on top in exactas.
I will usually play rolling pick 3's or exactas but not both. I lean toward rolling pick 3's over exacta play.Exacta top pick key box with other picks. Occasionally top 2 key box, very rare. I'm not a box player.
Pick 3's can get very creative. I cash more exactas but pick 3's I use to try and develop a hedging opportunity in the 3rd leg, where any outcome results in profit. 3rd leg with a morning line false favorite is helpful.
I will dabble in superfectas, pick-4's, and Doubles when they merit attention. Virtually never play trifectas ... very very rare.
So basically Win bets, exacta keys or pick 3's.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Also, it is important to make adjustments .... make picks are my original thoughts but as the day goes on I may deviate, but I will never deviate off a 'crazy good' price, but I may add a price I like that couldn't have been foreseen to the mix.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Good luck Prof. I'm debating whether to look at Woodbine Sunday since I've never looked at it before. Could prove interesting

Do it!!
Woodbine has always been my favorite track. Less cheating than other tracks, or atleast, much easier to account for.
They usually have a bias people overlook as well.