Woodbine Sat Night

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Well its the Finals tonight and the field should be well matched.......maybe too well matched to pull any gems but off yesterdays bankroll fattening experience, I am willing to take a few "calculated flyers" and if they don't materialize, hoepfully keep a breakeven point with the chalks giving me $4 win payouts LMAO

R#1
AlwaysCam #7
Nice millionaire who runs well off a fast pace. Outside should not hurt him at all. While Burning POint should take the most $ , A.C. is my bet.
The one that I am leaning to as the "surprise" horse is actually JetLag .

7/1,5/1456


R#2: 8 Jr Mint - This is a pick-em race so go easy.
There are many "what-if's" involved here and I'd normally lay off this one.
2-3-8 tri box


R#3:

#6 Elena.
Honour way will take the chalk here and rightfully so. I will lean to Elena as this horse has the ability to surprise.

6/1,2/all


R#4 :

#7 Millwork
Interesting field. Stonebridge Diablo is a good bet and Classic Lavec will be chalk. Mill has had 2 great races in his last 4. The two that were not notable involved one "break" and one "interference". If we throw those out as anomalies, Mill has the stuff to make me money.

7/4,5/all


R#5:
#6 Lady Dillinger
Who here can beat her on paper ?
Any exotic = L.D. on top


R#6 - Who can beat #6 Isle of Patmos?
Lincoln Parke NEEDS a fast pace (25/55 ) to be in contention. I think that MakemyDay will press the pace from the ooutside and draw Isle into it early.
Zooka could have the speed but it is not consistent
#1 Lincoln WP


R#7 Peaceful Way#9....Who is better? (nobody) **Armbro Beseech?
The outside post (9 hole) COULD give her trouble tonight and IF that does happen, there will be a fat price for the right guess.
McallMagic and Armbro Beseech look like the two contenders to me.
(also your exotic keys)
Take the logical chalk or take the flyer.


R#8 Two horse race...and it happens to be two horses that have made me good money in the past.
Cincinnati Kid & In Conchnito (millionaire)
Cinn #6 SHOULD be the fav despite Conch's bankroll. Conch had a tough outing recently but is adding lasix.
The key to this race is WHO can beat Cinncinnati kid. (assuming of course he is on his game and gets a fair drive)

#9 InConch - outer post mixed with bad race 2 outings ago should put his odds up to an attractive level.
9/4,6/all

 

[trytrytry]

outstanding write ups and picks. lets get em...

 

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R#9 WHO can beat "Invitro" ?? #7


The only one I can see being close is Taylor Lynne #1 and post position may finally be in her favour
Still, logical choice is plain to see so take it for what its worth.

I will have some $$ on Taylor to upset naturally.


R#10 Who can beat #1 Geartogear???
Another chalky prospect who is possibly unbeatable from this field.
Armbro Balmoral is all I can find.........

Its a #1/2 race


R#11: This will be one I am waiting for. Great lineup.
Admirals Express should take the chalk here. Great horse and not out of his element.
I have followed and pulled for Canaco Lesage for some time now and I actually believe this horse could have a chance if the flow moves right.
Whosurboy is a logical contender.
BiddingforTime will take some interest but I feel that the outside post will make this horse a catalyst tonight - maybe draw out a contender and tire him out early.

I'll take Zeron and Canaco for a big upset at 6 or 8-1 :coffeetim


R#12
#6 TheFastLayne.
Daylon Alert will be in there.......



:105317756 Good luck with this one tonight/ As I said, move with caution on this tight card....more for entertainment than for making dough.

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[sds]

I am with ya trytry...although on "tiptoe" :toothless :toothless :toothless


When I get some time I like to give a decent "writeup" so you get an idea of what my head is spewing out....and maybe catch me in a stupid bout of :kicking: irrationality.

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[trytrytry]

i dont have a program in front of me. do you have two race 9's?? one in each post?

 

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The end of my first post indicates "InConchnito who is actually HORSE #9 inthat race - although it DOES look like race 9 lMAO


Sorry about that .....just came out that way.

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[sds]

:coffeetim With AlwaysCam scratched, I took my own advice and layed on the "surprise" horse - JetLag pulls it out for us at 5-1 !!

Woohoo



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[trytrytry]

i had him on the matchup at Pinny Winner!! Thanks for that in that other thread!! off and running.....................

 

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1
5-Jet Lag N 13.80 7.80 3.00 22632
4-Renees Queen 7.80 3.10 10474
1-Burning Point 2.10 6198


:105317756

 

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Race#2 - JR Mint comes through and pays us $6.30 !


Sweeeeet



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2
8-Jr Mint 6.30 3.70 2.50 40928
2-Quarter Carat 4.00 3.20 18739
4-Nighttime Magic 3.60

Awesome

:105317756 :105317756 :105317756 :105317756

 

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Race 3: boooo


No idea why he took that horse two wide for 3/4 of the track when the 3 hole was vacant.
He almost kept the lead but the horse was spent.

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Race4: Wire to wire Classic Lavec. 4/5 chalk as expected.
Millwork was never asked until it was too late - took 3rd.

Two poor drives in a row.


NEXT!

 

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3
2-Fan Favourite 13.70 7.40 3.60 41620
11-Gaelic 31.20 8.30 16635
6-Elena 2.50 10392



a third..........a tired, poorly driven third.....lmfao

 

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5
6-Lady Dillinger 2.80 2.20 2.10 30608
4-Claires Apache 7.80 4.70 13958
5-Pacific Supreme 6.80 42517

6
6-Isle Of Patmos 2.70 2.30 2.10 30212
3-Silent Swing 24.00 9.70 15291
2-Pacific Admiral 5.80


7
9-Peaceful Way 2.50 2.60 2.10 28289
4-Bliss 16.20 6.20 10175
1-Mccall Magic 3.00 11854



8
6-Cincinnati Kid 3.20 2.50 2.40 34009
5-Loose Change Louie 5.70 3.70 13999
4-Coventry 3.70


9
7-Invitro 2.10 2.10 0.00 30445
3-Serious Comfort 7.00 0.00 21132
1-Taylor Lynne 0.00

10
1-Geartogear 2.30 2.10 0.00 21340
8-Galantine Hanover 7.60 0.00 23679
6-Pokagon 0.00



Pretty much on the money tonight with the chalk... little chance of them losing on this night.

 

[trytrytry]

hard to make cash wiwth chalk like this hitting the board. Did not loose too much overall but no prices at all to make up for the half a dozen races with no winnings. Chalk night!

 

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12
6-The Fast Layne 5.10 3.40 2.60 43057
7-Bethe Maguy 4.50 3.40 16505
4-Barnee Rubble 3.80 7007

:coffeetim

$5 on the Win was a gift - and one I made real good on trytry.

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*** The chalk was WELL expected so it did not bother me too much. Like I said at the outset - TRY and find a horse to beat the chalk.......tough to do last night.

I hit one early and one late that made me the money I wanted....the middle was just light profits.

 

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I re-read your post trytry. Here's what I did last night (as with most nights.)

I hit the chalk horse (those that pay close to $3 or better) with a $100-$150 bet. Unlike many guys on these boards (and I have talked about this ad nauseum) I am very content if I take $100 and turn it into $150 or $200 - that is a 50% or better ROI for gods sake! LMAO

SO I hit the chalk horses that I laid out because I begged someone to show me WHO could beat them. (We had the chalk winner in Races 5,6,7,9,10 - but I only hit 5&6 for a small profit)
I took the "surprise horse" in several and laid a small bet because the odds were up there. The only one I played better on was JetLag because Always Cam scratched and I felt that Jet could beat the fav.
So Jet paid $13.80 and FastLayne hit $5+ - good money.

This is a good example of how bettors only look for 3-1 or better for "value"
There are many nights that all I get on wins are $4 but a doubling of capital is fine by me.

Our winners
JetLag-$13
JR Mint- $6
Fast Layne $5

and about 5 or 6 chalks

Not bad in my books :105317756

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[trytrytry]

if yo uhad the jet lag on top then yes I had him only in the matchup so it was just a little something. I layed off all the chalk horses that looked near post to be $3.00 or less (you never know as late money comes in)

5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th all came in chalk heavy.

so the package was a small losing day but you are right it was a hard day to make any good cash with all favorites winning.

some very nice winners however, I mean those horse that won wow! they are special.

 

[sds]

A load of special horses last night trytry.....but no idea who was really in their class - would have taken a miscue or bad drive to beat them in most of the matchups. I did have 3 there that were solid payouts and even 2 of the chalks were still worth the time in my eyes. Whenever I get those types runnning i typically lay off exotics and shoot for all or nothing on the win.


Let's give it another whirl this week.

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