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Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack:

Odds to win this week’s British Open:
8-1— Rory McIlroy
10-1— Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler
12-1— Brooks Koepka
20-1— Jordan Spieth, Cameron Smith
22-1— Xander Schauffele
25-1— Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland

Quote of the Day
“You just got lesson number one: don’t think. It can only hurt the ballclub.”
Kevin Costner, Bull Durham

Monday’s quiz
Which QB has thrown for the most yards in one season for the Chicago Bears?
Hints that won’t help much;
1) He went to college at NC State.
2) He also went to the same high school in California as former Braves’ catcher Biff Pocoroba.

Sunday’s quiz
Chicago Bears are the only one that has never had a QB throw for 4,000+ yards in a season.

Saturday’s quiz
Edgar Martinez has scored the most runs in Seattle Mariners’ history.

*******************************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a summer Sunday

— One of many ways how baseball has changed over the years:
Justin Verlander will be a first ballot Hall of Famer; in his career, he has thrown 26 complete games total. His season high in innings pitched? 251 IP, in 2011.

In 1976, Padres had a pitcher named Randy Jones who started 40 games, and finished 25 of them; he threw 315.1 innings that year, going 22-14, 2.74 for a 73-89 San Diego team. That is 25 complete games, in one year.

Jones never had another winning season; after that year, he went 43-89 the rest of his career.

Like it or not, the modern approach to handling pitchers lets guys last longer, which is important when you’re paying them a boatload of $$$$.

— There were 15 baseball games Sunday; only six starting pitchers got a win. Lot of close games; four of them went to extra innings. Interesting day.

Astros 9, Angels 8— Another weird game between these division rivals:
Angels led 3-1 after six innings; Houston tied it.
Angels led 7-3 after seven innings; Astros scored 4 runs in the 9th to win it.
Chas McCormick hit two homers, knocked in three runs.
Kyle Turner ended game with a great diving catch in right field.

Phillies 7, Padres 6 (12)
San Diego led 4-1 in the 6th inning.
Schwarber walked it off with a 12th inning sac fly.
Padres, with their $250,806,874 payroll, are now 44-50- the ship be sinkin’

Giants 8, Pirates 4 (10)
San Francisco has now won five games in a row.
Pirates are calling up two more of their prospects to play Monday.

Mets 2, Dodgers 1 (10)
Max Scherzer allowed one hit in 7 IP
Guillorme walked it off with a 10th inning single.
Mets and their $362,985,805 payroll are now 43-50, 8.5 games out of a Wild Card slot.

Brewers 4, Reds 3
Milwaukee goes 5-1 against the Reds the last 10 days, takes over 1st in NL Central.
Reds scored total of 3 runs in this series; they’re bringing up Christian Encarnacion-Strand Monday. He is a 1B/3B who was hitting .331 in AAA.

From this point on, Christian Encarnacion-Strand will now be referred to as CES.

Rangers 6, Guardians 5
Texas scored four runs in bottom of the 8th for the comeback win and a series sweep.
Cleveland has a played a lot of one-run games (17-20).

Twins 5, A’s 4
Minnesota sweeps series; winning run in all three games scored from the 7th inning on.

Orioles 5, Marlins 4
Bradish threw 7.1 innings, didn’t give up any runs.
Baltimore has now won eight games in a row.

Colorado 8, New York 7
CJ Cron’s grand slam out Rockies up 5-3 in 8th inning.
New York tied game with two runs in 9th.
Jones/Trejo homered in the 11th; Jones’ 2-run blast tied the game.

— Movie of the Day: One on One (1977)— A small-town high school basketball star goes off to a big-time college and tries to impress his coach, tutor and teammates, not in that order, but he realizes that he has few skills outside of basketball.

Robby Benson is the player, a flashy passer whose overall game doesn’t impress his coach (then why did he recruit him???). GD Spradlin plays the coach; he also played Tom Landry in North Dallas Forty.

Annette O’Toole is the tutor; Melanie Griffith makes a cameo appearance at the start of the movie, as a hitch hiker.

I was a senior in high school when this movie came out; it seems kind of cheesy now, but I loved it when it came out.

The basketball scenes were filmed in Colorado State’s arena, which they still use today.

— College football Trend of the Day—
since 2013, UNLV is 32-18 ATS as a road underdog.
since 2013, UNLV is 10-18 ATS as a home underdog.

— Tennessee Titans are going to sign WR DeAndre Hopkins to a 2-year contract worth around $15M a year, if he hits his incentives.

Titans coach Mike Vrabel was the linebackers coach and later the defensive coordinator for the Houston Texans earlier in Hopkins’ career, so there is familiarity there.

— Phoenix Suns traded G Cameron Payne to San Antonio, will use the roster spot to sign Bol Bol. Phoenix saves more than $26M in luxury taxes for this season, but now they don’t have a traditional point guard on their roster.

— Tampa Bay Buccaneers are bringing back their creamsicle orange uniforms for a Week 5 game with Detroit.

— Tennessee avoided a bowl ban after the NCAA Committee on Infractions found the Vols’ football program responsible for more than 200 individual violations, including 18 Level I in violations— they were fined $8M, scholarships were reduced but they didn’t get a bowl ban, a big thing.

Former coach Jeremy Pruitt was hit with a six-year show cause order; in all probability, he’ll surface coaching in the XFL or USFL next spring.

— SEC football media days are this week in Nashville; four days of everyone putting their best foot forward for the media. Nick Saban might even smile once or twice.
 

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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
— Giants-Reds game was suspended by weather, resumes at 5:40 today.
— Texas 3, Tampa Bay 2— Rangers win on a walk-off wild pitch.
— Dodgers 6, Orioles 4— Loss snaps Baltimore’s 8-game winning streak.
— Tigers 3, Royals 2— Lyles threw 6 shutout IP, but KC is still 1-17 in his starts.
— Angels 4, New York 3 (10)— Bronx is 2-7 in its last nine games.
— Cavaliers 99, Rockets 78— Cleveland wins the NBA’s Summer League.

Quote of the Day
“When I came up to bat in the 9th inning with bases loaded and two outs, I looked in the visitors’ dugout and guys were already in their street clothes.”
Bob Uecker

Tuesday’s quiz
Who was the host of Wheel of Fortune, before Pat Sajak?
Hint: He does a commercial on TV these days about buying gold.

Monday’s quiz
Erik Kramer threw for 3,838 yards in 1995, the most passing yards in one season for the Chicago Bears- they went 9-7 that year.

Sunday’s quiz
Chicago Bears are the only NFL team that has never had a QB throw for 4,000+ yards in a season.​

*********************************************************

Facts, trends for NFC teams……

Arizona Cardinals
Were 50-32-1 in five years under Bruce Arians; why did they fire him?
They’re 31-50-1 in five years since they fired him, 0-1 in playoff games.
Last four years, Cardinals are 5-12 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2013, Arizona is 9-20-1 ATS in NFC West home games.

Atlanta Falcons
Have had five straight losing seasons (32-50 SU/35-45-2 ATS)
Under Arthur Smith, Falcons are 4-10-2 ATS at home.
Since 2013, Atlanta is 18-34-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Smith, Falcons are 7-4-2 ATS in games where spread was 3 or less points.

Carolina Panthers
Haven’t made playoffs since 2017; haven’t won playoff game since 2015.
Frank Reich is the new coach; he was 41-35-1 SU in five years with the Colts.
Last three years, Carolina was 0-9 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less points.
Last three years, Carolina was 10-3 ATS as an underdog 3 or less points.

Chicago Bears
Made playoffs in 2018/2020; last playoff win was in 2010.
Last 10 years, they had one winning season, were 8-8 three times.
Last four years, Bears are 9-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 10 years, Chicago is 14-27-2 ATS as an underdog in divisional games.

Dallas Cowboys
Went 24-10 SU last two years, scoring 29.3 ppg; why fire the offensive coordinator?
Last two years, Cowboys are +24 in turnovers, 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 10 years, Dallas is 16-8 ATS as a home favorite in NFC East games.
Since 2010, Dallas is 116-94 SU in regular season, 3-4 in playoff games.

Detroit Lions
Last time Detroit won a playoff game? 1991.
Last time Lions made the playoffs? 2016.
Last 10 games last year, Detroit was 8-2 SU/9-1 ATS.
In his career, Jared Goff is 56-48-1 SU as a starting QB.

Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is the new QB, Packers’ first new starting QB since 2008.
Last four years, Green Bay is +39 in turnovers.
Last 10 years, Green Bay is 39-24-2 ATS as a divisional favorite.
Last two years, Packers were 1-6-1 ATS on artificial turf.

Los Angeles Rams
Last year was Rams’ first losing season since 2016.
In six seasons, Sean McVay is 7-3 SU in playoff games.
Last two years, Rams are 4-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Under McVay, Rams are 8-4 ATS as a divisional road favorite.

— Movie of the Day: Double Jeopardy (1999)— A woman framed for her husband’s murder suspects he is still alive; she has already been tried for the crime, so she can’t be re-prosecuted if she finds and kills him.
Ashley Judd is the woman; Tommy Lee Jones is her parole officer who tries to find her— they’re both in New Orleans when she finds the man she had supposedly killed.

Minnesota Vikings
Vikings were 13-4 last year, their best regular season since 2009.
Vikings were 11-0 last year in games decided by 8 or less points.
Kirk Cousins is 47-35-1 SU as Minnesota’s quarterback.
Last 10 years, Minnesota is 43-29-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.

New Jersey Giants
Went 9-7-1 LY, won playoff game, their first winning season since 2016.
Were 8-4-1 last year in games decided by 8 or less points.
In Daboll’s first season as coach, Giants were 8-2 ATS as an underdog.
Giants were +1 in turnovers last year; were minus-25 from 2020-22.

New Orleans Saints
Saints were 7-10 LY, their first year since 2005 without Sean Payton as coach.
New Orleans was minus-11 in turnovers LY (+31 from 2020-22).
New QB is Derek Carr; he was 63-80 as Raiders’ QB, 0-1 in playoff games.
Since 2014, Saints are 24-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles made playoffs 5 of last 6 years; they won NFC title last year.
Under Sirianni, Philly is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite, 8-14 ATS in other games.
Last five years, Eagles are 7-11 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Sirianni, over is 12-5 in Eagle home games.

San Francisco 49ers
Last two years, 49ers went 23-11 in regular season, lost twice in NFC title game.
Last four years, Niners are 14-6 ATS on artificial turf.
SF was 7-1 ATS as a home favorite LY; they were 7-16-1 from 2018-22.
Who is QB going to be? Purdy? Lance? Darnold?

Seattle Seahawks
Finished over .500 10 of last 11 years; last six seasons, they’re 1-4 in playoff games.
In his NFL career, Pete Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2016, Seahawks are 2-7-1 ATS as a divisional road favorite.
Seattle is 6-11 in its last 17 games that were decided by 8 or less points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In 3 years with Brady at QB, Bucs went 32-18 in regular season, 5-2 in playoffs.
In his 5-year career, Baker Mayfield is 32-39 as an NFL starter, 1-1 in playoff games.
Last four years, Tampa Bay is 5-9-1 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, under was 11-5 in Buccaneers’ road games.

Washington Commanders
Since 2006, Washington is 0-4 in playoff games.
Last time Washington finished over .500? 2016.
Since 2018, Commanders are 5-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 10 years, Washington is 11-19 ATS in NFC East home games.
 

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Tuesday, July 18


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WNBA

Tuesday, July 18


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Trend Report
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Minnesota @ Atlanta
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Connecticut @ Phoenix
Connecticut
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Connecticut is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing at home against Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Connecticut


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TUESDAY, JULY 18​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MIN at ATL07:00 PMMIN +6.0
O 170.5
+500 +500
CON at PHO10:00 PMCON -7.5
U 162.5
+500 +500
 

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WNBA JULY'S BEST BETS

07/18/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%...........................- 11.50
07/12/2023........................2 - 5.............................28.57%...........................- 17.50
07/11/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%...........................-11.50
07/09/2023........................5 - 3.............................66.50%............................+ 8.50
07/08/2023........................1 - 1.............................50.00%............................- 0.50
07/07/2023........................5 - 2.............................71.42%............................+ 9.00
07/06/2023........................1 -0 - 1........................100.00%............................+ 5.00
07/05/2023........................1 - 4.............................20.00%............................- 17.00
07/02/2023........................4 - 3.............................57.14%............................+ 3.50
07/01/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%............................- 11.50

TOTALS.............................21 - 27...........................43.75%............................- 43.50
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Franchise tag salaries in the NFL:
$32.4M— Quarterback
$20.9M— Linebacker
$19.7M— Wide Receiver/Defensive End
$18.9M— Defensive Tackle
$18.2M— Offensive Line
$18.1M— Cornerback
$10M— Running Back

Quote of the Day
“Absolutely not. Are you crazy? Look at his record without Tom [Brady]. You’ve got to win without Tom. One thing I learned about being great is you got to be great in different situations. It was all Tom. I was there. I saw it. It was Tom. Everybody know it. Tom know it but he ain’t gonna admit it because he wants to be politically correct. That’s why I’m here and I’m going to tell the truth.”
Former NFL CB Asante Samuel, when asked if Bill Belichick is the greatest head coach ever

Wednesday’s quiz
In the Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga version of A Star Is Born, what famous comedian played Lady Gaga’s father?

Tuesday’s quiz
Chuck Woolery was the host of Wheel of Fortune, before Pat Sajak.

Monday’s quiz
Erik Kramer threw for 3,838 yards in 1995, the most passing yards in one season for the Chicago Bears- they went 9-7 that year.

****************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings……..

— Dodgers 10, Orioles 3
Baltimore P Tyler Wells had a rough night, giving up 5 runs in 2nd inning— he threw 40 pitches that inning and was taken out after it was over.
Wells had allowed exactly 2 earned runs in each of his previous seven starts, the first MLB pitcher to do that since Joey Jay, in 1959.
Joey Jay, by the way, was the first major leaguer who had also played Little League baseball.

— Modern baseball: Jason Heyward hit a 3-run homer off Wells in that 2nd inning, but when his turn at bat came around in the 3rd inning, LA pinch-hit for him with Jake Marisnick.
Pretty cold, pinch-hitting in 3rd inning for a guy who homered in 2nd inning. Hayward is 0-12 vs lefties this season with two walks, but still………

— There were four games Tuesday where the losing team scored 10+ runs.

— Arizona 16, Braves 13
Austin Riley hit two homers, knocked in 7 runs…..and Atlanta still lost.

Arizona led 7-5 in 2nd inning; they scored three in 9th for the win.

Diamondbacks won for just third time in their last 11 games.

— Rockies 4, Astros 3— Kris Bryant/Ryan McMahon hit back/back homers in first inning, first time Colorado has gone back/back since April 11, which is a long time ago.

— Cincinnati Reds have used 12 players this year who were making their major league debut, most of any team in the majors this season.
Reds have a weird roster; too many position players, not enough good pitchers. They’re 1-7 in their last eight games, but are only 2.5 games out of first place. They need to package couple of hitters for some pitching at the trade deadline.

— Cubs 17, Nationals 3
Washington led 3-1 after five innings; game was 3-3 in 7th.

— Rangers 5, Rays 3— Tampa Bay is 3-7 in last ten games, leads AL East by one game.

— Angels 5, New York 1— New York is 2-8 in its last ten games, is in last place in AL East, despite their 50-46 record- -they scored total of four runs their last two games.

— Fantasy baseball is fun…….well it is fun when you win, it is always interesting, win or lose.
Your decisions determine whether you win or lose, which makes it interesting, but baseball is weird. Guys have a great year, then tail off for a couple years. Not many guys are great all the time.

Jorge Soler: Hit 48 homers in 2019, but since then, has hit 8-27-13-24 homers. Inconsistent.

Christian Yelich hit .326/,329 in 2018/2019; the next three years, he hit .252 or worse all three years. He has bounced back this season.

Kris Bryant his 138 homers his first five years in the majors, but has tailed off badly the last couple years, even though he plays his home games at Coors Field.
(He hit a home run 10 seconds after I typed that sentence)

Every once in a while you strike gold; in 2021, I picked up Jesse Winker off the scrap heap, and he hit .305 in Cincinnati with a .949 OPS— he was awesome, helped make my season decent, but then he got traded to Seattle. No bueno.
Winker hit .219 last year, is hitting .201 this year. Like I said, success comes and goes.

As an A’s fan, I have to focus on my fantasy team, since the cheap bastard who owns the A’s will not try to compete, which is bad for my blood pressure. My fantasy team may not win all the time, but we are always trying to win.

— It bothers me that big market teams like the Cubs/Red Sox are content to field mediocre teams. It is one thing for the Rays/A’s/Pirates to be cheap (thrifty), but for the big market teams to do it, that is mystifying.

— I am told that Hard Rock casinos offer a baseball prop bet, a Grand Salami over/under on first inning runs in all 15 games combined. Interesting way to get action early in the night.

As of 8:30 pm Tuesday:
Cleveland scored 5 runs in first
Mets scored 5 runs in first
San Diego scored twice in first
Braves led Arizona 5-2 after first inning
Detroit scored twice in first inning.
Simply put, a good night for the over in the 1st inning Grand Salami.

— Movie of the Day: The Natural (1984)— An unknown ballplayer with a mysterious past comes out of nowhere to become a star player, a great hitter.
Robert Redford plays Roy Hobbs; Wilford Brimley is his manager, Robert Duvall the reporter trying to uncover Hobbs’ past. Darren McGavin, Kim Basinger, Glenn Close, a great cast.
The baseball scenes in the movie were filmed in Buffalo, in the ballpark the Bills played in before they built Rich Stadium in Orchard Park.

— College football Trend of the Day: In five years under Bloomgren, Rice Owls are 2-7 ATS as a favorite.

— Solid piece of life advice: Never play the same position as the coach’s son. Trust me on this.

— I was sitting in my folding chair at Saratoga Saturday, watching the horse races on the big screen; it was a nice day, I had a baseball cap, sunglasses on and two younger guys (in their 30’s) are off to my right, maybe ten feet away.
One guys speaks up: “Hello sir. Who do you like in this race?”
They were polite and all, but they’re talking to me like I’m 90 years old. The horse I gave them in that race is still running; that was the last time they talked to me.

— Nine NFL training camps opened Tuesday; the summer is flying by.
 

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Wednesday, July 19


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WNBA

Wednesday, July 19


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indiana @ Washington
Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Dallas @ New York
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New York
New York is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New York is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home


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Pending Picks​

WEDNESDAY, JULY 19​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
DAL at NY01:00 PMDAL +8.0
O 170.5
+500 +500
 

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WNBA JULY'S BEST BETS

07/19/2023........................2 - 0...........................100.00%..........................+ 10.00
07/18/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%...........................- 11.50
07/12/2023........................2 - 5.............................28.57%...........................- 17.50
07/11/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%...........................-11.50
07/09/2023........................5 - 3.............................66.50%............................+ 8.50
07/08/2023........................1 - 1.............................50.00%............................- 0.50
07/07/2023........................5 - 2.............................71.42%............................+ 9.00
07/06/2023........................1 -0 - 1........................100.00%............................+ 5.00
07/05/2023........................1 - 4.............................20.00%............................- 17.00
07/02/2023........................4 - 3.............................57.14%............................+ 3.50
07/01/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%............................- 11.50

TOTALS.............................23 - 27...........................46.00%............................- 33.50
 

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Thursday’s 6-pack:
Odds to win the national title in college football:
+225— Georgia
7-1— Alabama
8-1— Michigan/Ohio State
10-1— USC
12-1— LSU
16-1— Clemson/Penn State/Texas

Quote of the Day
“Texas is different. I don’t know if you guys have ever traveled outside the state or had anything to do with any other program outside the state — we’re different. … Our communities still go and support our (high school) teams. The more and more any football is out there on Friday nights — college, NFL — we’re opposed to that. Our association will be very vocal about the way we look upon it.”
Texas High School Coaches Association director Joe Martin

Thursday’s quiz
Who holds the Jacksonville Jaguars’ record for most passing yards in a season?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga version of A Star Is Born, Andrew Dice Clay played Lady Gaga’s father.

Tuesday’s quiz
Chuck Woolery was the host of Wheel of Fortune, before Pat Sajak.

*************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….

Before we start today, there is a new golf simulator opening in Schenectady Friday at 4:00. The Bunker, which also has locations in Guilderland, North Greenbush, Latham and Saratoga, is a good place for kids’ birthday parties or just going out to practice your golf.
The Schenectady Bunker is near the Rivers Casino; they have a bar area and good food- check it out.

— Hitting is more difficult than it used to be a long time ago; hitters don’t see the same pitchers nearly as often as they used to.
In 1941, Joe DiMaggio got a hit in 56 consecutive games, still the record, but back then, there were only eight teams in each league, and starting pitches went deeper into games than they do now, so in those 56 games, New York faced a total of only 59 different pitchers.
Last year, the hitters who qualified for the batting title, they faced an average of 232 different pitchers. The last hitting streak of 30+ games was Whit Merrifield’s in 2019— he faced 86 different pitchers during that streak.

— Minnesota P Sonny Gray hit the 10-year service time milestone this week, something ballplayers take very seriously. Not many big leaguers last ten years, so it is a big deal.
Gray is having a weird season this year; in his last 13 starts, he is 0-4 with nine no-decisions. His last win was April 30 against Kansas City. Twins are 3-10 in the 13 games; they scored 3 or fewer runs in nine of the 13 games. He hasn’t pitched terribly, just not well enough.

— Baltimore Orioles acquired reliever Shintaro Fujinami from the A’s Wednesday, for a lefty reliever who is in the minors. Oakland tried to make Fujinami a starter this year and it was an unmitigated disaster. He’s pitched better recently, when they used him in relief one inning at a time.
I’m big on the theory that it helps a team when their front office makes a move at this time of year, even a small move like this one. Front office is telling players/coaches that they’re trying to help them make the playoffs— has to be good for morale.

— Way back in 1974, when Hank Aaron homered to set the all-time HR record, a Braves’ pitcher caught the ball in the bullpen, a guy named Tom House.
49 years later, House is still a big deal in sports; he believes that the mechanics for throwing footballs and baseballs are identical- he now instructs quarterbacks on throwing mechanics.
Some of the QB’s he’s worked with include Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Andrew Luck. House is a big deal in coaching, 49 years after catching one of the most famous home runs ever.

— This year in the NBA, 41 guys are scheduled to earn $30M+; 17 guys are scheduled to earn $40M+.

— On December 14, 2017, Cardinals acquired OF Marcell Ozuna from the Marlins, for four prospects. Ozuna had just hit 37 homers with 124 RBI and a .924 OPS.
The four prospects Miami got:
Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Daniel Castano, Magneuris Sierra.
Alcantara/Gallen have been really good pitchers, though Miami traded Gallen to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm. Ozuna trade was an interesting deal that Miami would’ve won bigtime had they kept Gallen.

— Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson is an advisor of sorts for the Houston Astros now; Astros were in Denver this week, so Jackson crossed paths with Colorado manager Bud Black.
Long time ago, Jackson hit his 500th home run off of Bud Black, who was a good pitcher.

— Financial advantage of the new balanced schedule: Colorado drew over 43,000 people on Tuesday night, for their game with the World Champion Astros.

— Pirates 7, Guardians 5— Aaron Civale’s last two starts:
Civale allowed four runs in 10.1 IP, left both games with a lead.
In those two games, Cleveland’s bullpen allowed 15 runs in 5.1 IP. Not good.

— Cubs 8, Nationals 3– Same thing for Washington’s bullpen; last two days, they gave up 20 runs in 5.1 IP, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

— Rangers 5, Rays 1— Orioles now lead AL East by percentage points; they visit Tampa Bay this weekend, in a very interesting series.

— Movie of the Day: One More Time (2015)— A famous crooner whose career is fading tries to get back into the limelight again, against the advice of his daughters.
Christopher Walken is the singer; Amber Heard plays one of the daughters— she is also a talented singer. Oliver Platt plays his agent.

— College football Trend of the Day: since 2015, SMU Mustangs are 19-11 ATS as a home favorite.

— College basketball player Chris Ledlum played three years at Harvard, then transferred to Tennessee last spring, but now he has transferred again, this time to play for Rick Pitino at St John’s. Pitino is going to do big things at St John’s, you can just feel it.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they do not):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Arizona, San Francisco, Philadelphia
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Tampa Bay, Toronto, Houston

— Some website posted a ranking of local announce teams for MLB squads this week; not sure how they came up with the rankings, whether people voted or whatever, but some of them were hideously wrong. Have to give this some thought, but I’ll be doing my own version of this fairly soon, at least a top 10 list.
 

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WNBA

Thursday, July 20


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Trend Report
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Atlanta @ Connecticut
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Connecticut
Connecticut is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Connecticut's last 7 games at home

Los Angeles @ Minnesota
Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Los Angeles
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Los Angeles

Chicago @ Phoenix
Chicago
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games at home

Las Vegas @ Seattle
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Las Vegas is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Seattle's last 17 games at home


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THURSDAY, JULY 20​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
ATL at CON11:30 AMATL +6.5
O 167.5
+500 +500
LA at MIN08:00 PMMIN -2.5
U 162.0
+500 +500
LV at SEA10:00 PMSEA +18.0
O 169.5
+500 +500
CHI at PHO10:00 PMPHO +2.0
O 157.0
+500 +500
 

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WNBA JULY'S BEST BETS

07/20/2023........................2 - 4..............................33.33%..........................- 12.00
07/19/2023........................2 - 0...........................100.00%..........................+ 10.00
07/18/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%...........................- 11.50
07/12/2023........................2 - 5.............................28.57%...........................- 17.50
07/11/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%...........................-11.50
07/09/2023........................5 - 3.............................66.50%............................+ 8.50
07/08/2023........................1 - 1.............................50.00%............................- 0.50
07/07/2023........................5 - 2.............................71.42%............................+ 9.00
07/06/2023........................1 -0 - 1........................100.00%............................+ 5.00
07/05/2023........................1 - 4.............................20.00%............................- 17.00
07/02/2023........................4 - 3.............................57.14%............................+ 3.50
07/01/2023........................1 - 3.............................25.00%............................- 11.50

TOTALS.............................25 - 31...........................44.64%............................- 45.50
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
— Braves 7, Arizona 5— Game was scoreless thru five innings.
— Brewers 4, Phillies 0— 8 shutout IP for Corbin Burnes.
— Orioles 4, Rays 3 (10)— Baltimore leads AL East by a game.
— Blue Jays 4, Padres 0— Six shutout IP for Chris Bassitt.
— NFL fined Daniel Snyder $60M for his antics while he owned the Commanders.
— Snyder just sold the Commanders for $6B; he can afford it.

Quote of the Day
“Destiny…….belongs to the underdogs.”
Dick Vermeil

Friday’s quiz
Kurt Warner’s first start with the Rams was in 1999 against the Ravens; what left-handed passer played QB for Baltimore that day?

Thursday’s quiz
Blake Bortles holds the Jacksonville Jaguars’ record for most passing yards in a season.

Wednesday’s quiz
In the Bradley Cooper/Lady Gaga version of A Star Is Born, Andrew Dice Clay played Lady Gaga’s father.

*********************************************************

Friday’s Den: Trends for AFC teams, and a movie review

— Baltimore
Last eight years, they’re 1-5 in playoff games.
Last five years, they’re 13-21-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last ten years, Ravens are 11-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2015, Baltimore is 18-9-2 ATS as a road dog.

— Buffalo
Last four years, they’re 4-4 in playoff games (from 2003-19, they were 0-2)
Under McDermott, they’re 29-18-2 ATS on the road.
Last four years, they’re 14-3-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
Last four years, Bills are 12-6 ATS vs NFC opponents.

— Cincinnati
Last two years, Bengals are 22-11 in regular season, 5-2 in playoff games.
From 2016-20, Bengals were 25-53-2 in regular season.
Under Taylor, Cincinnati is 16-9 ATS as a favorite.
Last three years, Bengals are 14-6 ATS coming off a loss.

— Cleveland
Over last 20 years, Browns are 1-1 in playoff games (2020)
Their only two winning seasons: 2007, 2020.
Last three years, Cleveland is 7-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last four years, Browns are 10-16-2 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

— Denver
Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since winning Super Bowl in 2015.
Sean Payton is their 5th head coach in last eight years.
Since 2015, Denver is 11-21-4 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2017, Broncos are 6-18-3 ATS as a favorite of 3 or less points.

— Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans is their fourth head coach the last four years (11-38-1 last 3 years)
Last five years, Texans are 10-6-2 ATS in games with spread 3 or less points.
Last ten years, Houston is 14-21-3 ATS against NFC opponents
Last two years, under is 11-6 in Houston’s road games.

— Indianapolis Colts
Colts made the playoffs twice in last eight seasons.
Indy was minus-13 in turnovers last year (+14/+10 previous two years)
Last eight years, Colts are 20-9-1 ATS vs NFC opponents.
Last three years, Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in AFC South home games.

— Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars were 9-8 last year; they were 15-50 from 2018-21.
Underdogs covered all eight Jacksonville home games last year.
Since 2014, Jaguars are 21-31-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under is 13-3 in Jaguars’ last sixteen home games.

— Movie of the DayAmerican Underdog (2021)— The remarkable story of NFL MVP and Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner, who in five years went from stocking shelves at a supermarket in Iowa to becoming one of the best quarterbacks ever.
Zachary Levi plays Warner, Anna Paquin plays Brenda Warner, Dennis Quaid is coach Dick Vermeil. Bruce McGill plays Iowa Barnstormers’ coach Jim Foster.
If you didn’t know this was a true story, you’d dismiss this movie as being too corny, but real life is generally better than fiction.

— Kansas City Chiefs
Last four years, Chiefs are 10-2 in playoffs, winning two Super Bowls.
Last eight years, Kansas City is 17-7 ATS in AFC West road games.
Last three years, under is 15-9-1 in games at Arrowhead.
Last 10 years, Chiefs are 24-12-1 ATS in games with spread 3 or less points.

Las Vegas Raiders
Last 20 years, Raiders are 0-2 in playoff games (2016, 2021)
Last three years, Raiders are minus-7/minus-9/minus-11 in turnovers.
Last seven years, Las Vegas is 5-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four years, Raiders are 14-8 ATS as a road underdog.

Los Angeles Chargers
Chargers made playoffs three times in the last 13 years.
Since 2014, Chargers are 18-32-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last ten years, Bolts are 30-17-4 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 4 years, Chargers are 6-15-7 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Miami Dolphins
Last year, Miami made playoffs for first time since 2008.
Last time Dolphins won a playoff game? 2000 (0-2 in playoffs last 20 years).
Last six years, Dolphins are 13-5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Last three years, Miami is 7-2 ATS in AFC East home games.

New England Patriots
Since Tom Brady left, Patriots are 25-25 in regular season, 0-1 in playoff games.
25-26 in three years, despite being +17 in turnovers in those games.
Last 10 years, New England is 28-19-1 ATS coming off a loss.
Last five years, Patriots are 10-17-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

New Jersey Jets
Jets haven’t made playoffs since 2010, so they got Aaron Rodgers to play QB.
Last three years, Gang Green was 13-37 SU/20-30 ATS
Last 10 years, Jets are 11-17 ATS as a home favorite, 29-22-2 as a home underdog.
Last 10 years, underdogs are 20-10 ATS in Jets’ AFC East home games.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Last five years, Pittsburgh is 0-2 in playoff games.
Last six years, Steelers are 16-21 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Tomlin is 25-41-1 ATS as road favorite, 36-23-1 as a road dog.
Last nine years, under is 46-22-3 in Steeler road games.

Tennessee Titans
Last year was Tennessee’s first losing season since 2015.
Last three years, underdogs are 15-6-1 ATS in Titan road games.
Last three years, Titans are 10-15 ATS as a favorite.
Last two years, under is 12-4-1 in Tennessee home games.
 

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WNBA

Friday, July 21

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Trend Report
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New York @ Washington
New York
New York is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games on the road
Washington
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home


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