Dante, week 1 and week 1a mean the first week and the OFFFICIAL first week. You know how next week I believe that we only have about 2-3 games, well that is week 1a in my view, then the next week, ALL teams play.
But guys, dont put too much thought in this "system." Of course it is a winning system, you are taking the underdog right?? If you bet the board every week by just taking the underdogs, then you will win about 58-60% by seasons end if you throw out the small dogs like +1-2.5. Problem is that the public takes the favorites, they never like the dogs
But guys, dont put too much thought in this "system." Of course it is a winning system, you are taking the underdog right?? If you bet the board every week by just taking the underdogs, then you will win about 58-60% by seasons end if you throw out the small dogs like +1-2.5. Problem is that the public takes the favorites, they never like the dogs
While the angle is pretty strong, it hasn't won 17 straight years. Here are the records for the past 20 seasons.
Year Wins Losses Ties
1983 1 0 0
1984 2 1 0
1985 5 2 2
1986 3 2 0
1987 4 2 0
1988 4 3 0
1989 3 1 0
1990 3 1 0
1991 3 4 0
1992 2 6 0
1993 5 5 1
1994 3 7 0
1995 12 5 0
1996 6 2 0
1997 6 6 0
1998 12 3 1
1999 7 4 0
2000 7 5 0
2001 7 4 0
2002 9 3 0
Totals 104 66 4
There are three losing seasons in there. The situation isn't quite strong enough for me to play but we can make it stronger with a few parameters.
Simply require that our opponent is only playing in their second game or less and our 'play on' team is coming off a loss or this is their first game, and we get the following record.
Year Wins Losses Ties
1983 1 0 0
1984 2 1 0
1985 3 0 2
1986 2 1 0
1987 2 1 0
1988 4 2 0
1989 1 0 0
1990 2 1 0
1991 2 3 0
1992 2 4 0
1993 4 3 0
1994 1 3 0
1995 7 2 0
1996 4 1 0
1997 5 5 0
1998 9 2 0
1999 7 3 0
2000 7 1 0
2001 5 3 0
2002 9 2 0
Totals 79 38 2
We still have three losing seasons but the hit we took in those losing seasons was much less than the first example. Getting a bunch of points in your first game or coming off a loss (where you are motivated to play well) helps. Adding in that your opponent is only playing their second game or less means they don't have a game up on you in the preseason.
And for the guy who said take all dogs of three or more, it sounds great and is a pretty good place to start your handicapping but it is a money loser over the past 20 years. It has had some nice years, however.
Year Wins Losses Ties %
1983 83 64 7 56.5%
1984 82 84 1 49.4%
1985 73 100 4 42.2%
1986 99 83 5 54.4%
1987 92 69 3 57.1%
1988 86 77 3 52.8%
1989 87 85 4 50.6%
1990 77 84 5 47.8%
1991 86 93 6 48.0%
1992 89 94 2 48.6%
1993 101 79 7 56.1%
1994 90 74 7 54.9%
1995 104 87 6 54.5%
1996 100 88 2 53.2%
1997 94 80 12 54.0%
1998 88 95 12 48.1%
1999 109 86 11 55.9%
2000 105 99 7 51.5%
2001 100 92 14 52.1%
2002 114 92 6 55.3%
Totals 1859 1705 124 52.2%
Bottom line is NEVER accept something somebody says without actually checking out the facts first. Good luck.
Year Wins Losses Ties
1983 1 0 0
1984 2 1 0
1985 5 2 2
1986 3 2 0
1987 4 2 0
1988 4 3 0
1989 3 1 0
1990 3 1 0
1991 3 4 0
1992 2 6 0
1993 5 5 1
1994 3 7 0
1995 12 5 0
1996 6 2 0
1997 6 6 0
1998 12 3 1
1999 7 4 0
2000 7 5 0
2001 7 4 0
2002 9 3 0
Totals 104 66 4
There are three losing seasons in there. The situation isn't quite strong enough for me to play but we can make it stronger with a few parameters.
Simply require that our opponent is only playing in their second game or less and our 'play on' team is coming off a loss or this is their first game, and we get the following record.
Year Wins Losses Ties
1983 1 0 0
1984 2 1 0
1985 3 0 2
1986 2 1 0
1987 2 1 0
1988 4 2 0
1989 1 0 0
1990 2 1 0
1991 2 3 0
1992 2 4 0
1993 4 3 0
1994 1 3 0
1995 7 2 0
1996 4 1 0
1997 5 5 0
1998 9 2 0
1999 7 3 0
2000 7 1 0
2001 5 3 0
2002 9 2 0
Totals 79 38 2
We still have three losing seasons but the hit we took in those losing seasons was much less than the first example. Getting a bunch of points in your first game or coming off a loss (where you are motivated to play well) helps. Adding in that your opponent is only playing their second game or less means they don't have a game up on you in the preseason.
And for the guy who said take all dogs of three or more, it sounds great and is a pretty good place to start your handicapping but it is a money loser over the past 20 years. It has had some nice years, however.
Year Wins Losses Ties %
1983 83 64 7 56.5%
1984 82 84 1 49.4%
1985 73 100 4 42.2%
1986 99 83 5 54.4%
1987 92 69 3 57.1%
1988 86 77 3 52.8%
1989 87 85 4 50.6%
1990 77 84 5 47.8%
1991 86 93 6 48.0%
1992 89 94 2 48.6%
1993 101 79 7 56.1%
1994 90 74 7 54.9%
1995 104 87 6 54.5%
1996 100 88 2 53.2%
1997 94 80 12 54.0%
1998 88 95 12 48.1%
1999 109 86 11 55.9%
2000 105 99 7 51.5%
2001 100 92 14 52.1%
2002 114 92 6 55.3%
Totals 1859 1705 124 52.2%
Bottom line is NEVER accept something somebody says without actually checking out the facts first. Good luck.
checking out the facts first,
what would be the results if every number was a half point better? Or did he happen to bet whatever arbitrary number happened to correspond with your database?
Good luck
BTw I think betting against line moves particularly on dogs is the thing to do in the preseason but certainly wouldn't advocate betting them all.
what would be the results if every number was a half point better? Or did he happen to bet whatever arbitrary number happened to correspond with your database?
Good luck
BTw I think betting against line moves particularly on dogs is the thing to do in the preseason but certainly wouldn't advocate betting them all.
"Or did he happen to bet whatever arbitrary number happened to correspond with your database?"
Not exactly sure what you mean by that or if it is directed at me or not. But, looking at games where they covered or didn't cover by a 0.5 point, the record was 4-4 in both cases for the preseason.
I also forgot to list last year's games. I always think it's good to look at the plays from the previous year (these games are usually still fresh in your mind) so you can see what type of plays you are getting. So often, we see a situation that is very strong and then when the play pops, it's some team who is playing terrible and we can't play the game. Without the added parameters, here are last year's plays.
Year Week TEAM OPPONENT TScore FScore LINE ATS
2002 2 ARZ SD 24 17 4 W
2002 2 CAR WAS 30 37 7.5 W
2002 2 KC SF 17 14 6 W
2002 2 MIA TB 10 14 6 W
2002 2 NYJ PIT 16 6 5 W
2002 3 CHI STL 19 17 6 W
2002 3 DET CLE 23 24 4 W
2002 3 HOU KC 9 19 6 L
2002 3 MIN BUF 24 21 4 W
2002 3 RAI TEN 14 24 4 L
2002 3 SEA SD 14 24 4.5 L
2002 3 SF DEN 12 7 6 W
And last year's games with the added parameters.
Year Week TEAM OPPONENT TScore FScore LINE ATS Opp GN Team LG SU
2002 2 ARZ SD 24 17 4 W 1
2002 2 CAR WAS 30 37 7.5 W 2
2002 2 KC SF 17 14 6 W 2
2002 2 MIA TB 10 14 6 W 1
2002 2 NYJ PIT 16 6 5 W 1
2002 3 CHI STL 19 17 6 W 2 L
2002 3 DET CLE 23 24 4 W 2 L
2002 3 MIN BUF 24 21 4 W 2 L
2002 3 RAI TEN 14 24 4 L 2 L
2002 3 SEA SD 14 24 4.5 L 2 L
2002 3 SF DEN 12 7 6 W 2 L
Haven't tracked it myself but I think I did read someone who did track the line moves in preseason, and they also said betting against those moves was the more profitable move.
Not exactly sure what you mean by that or if it is directed at me or not. But, looking at games where they covered or didn't cover by a 0.5 point, the record was 4-4 in both cases for the preseason.
I also forgot to list last year's games. I always think it's good to look at the plays from the previous year (these games are usually still fresh in your mind) so you can see what type of plays you are getting. So often, we see a situation that is very strong and then when the play pops, it's some team who is playing terrible and we can't play the game. Without the added parameters, here are last year's plays.
Year Week TEAM OPPONENT TScore FScore LINE ATS
2002 2 ARZ SD 24 17 4 W
2002 2 CAR WAS 30 37 7.5 W
2002 2 KC SF 17 14 6 W
2002 2 MIA TB 10 14 6 W
2002 2 NYJ PIT 16 6 5 W
2002 3 CHI STL 19 17 6 W
2002 3 DET CLE 23 24 4 W
2002 3 HOU KC 9 19 6 L
2002 3 MIN BUF 24 21 4 W
2002 3 RAI TEN 14 24 4 L
2002 3 SEA SD 14 24 4.5 L
2002 3 SF DEN 12 7 6 W
And last year's games with the added parameters.
Year Week TEAM OPPONENT TScore FScore LINE ATS Opp GN Team LG SU
2002 2 ARZ SD 24 17 4 W 1
2002 2 CAR WAS 30 37 7.5 W 2
2002 2 KC SF 17 14 6 W 2
2002 2 MIA TB 10 14 6 W 1
2002 2 NYJ PIT 16 6 5 W 1
2002 3 CHI STL 19 17 6 W 2 L
2002 3 DET CLE 23 24 4 W 2 L
2002 3 MIN BUF 24 21 4 W 2 L
2002 3 RAI TEN 14 24 4 L 2 L
2002 3 SEA SD 14 24 4.5 L 2 L
2002 3 SF DEN 12 7 6 W 2 L
Haven't tracked it myself but I think I did read someone who did track the line moves in preseason, and they also said betting against those moves was the more profitable move.
Sixth,
Great numbers, but I'm a little confused (not unusual
)
The angle is only to play in week 1, 1a and 2.
You point out that by adding a filter so you only play games when your opponets have played 2 games or less, you have a higher percentage of wins.
But if you are only playing in weeks 1, 1a and 2, can't your opponents only have a max of 2 games?
Or am I missing something?
Thanks,
Bart
Great numbers, but I'm a little confused (not unusual
The angle is only to play in week 1, 1a and 2.
You point out that by adding a filter so you only play games when your opponets have played 2 games or less, you have a higher percentage of wins.
But if you are only playing in weeks 1, 1a and 2, can't your opponents only have a max of 2 games?
Or am I missing something?
Thanks,
Bart
Bart,
Hope all is well buddy. I forgot to mention one item in my list of games. In my db, week 2 is week 3 for me.
Week 1A - 1
Week 1 - 2
Week 2 - 3
Week 1A games are the first two games on the schedule, which is August 2 - 4 this year. For these four teams, they will be playing their third game of the year (week 2 for Railbird's description) when everybody else will be playing only their second game.
Hope I didn't confuse you more.
Hope all is well buddy. I forgot to mention one item in my list of games. In my db, week 2 is week 3 for me.
Week 1A - 1
Week 1 - 2
Week 2 - 3
Week 1A games are the first two games on the schedule, which is August 2 - 4 this year. For these four teams, they will be playing their third game of the year (week 2 for Railbird's description) when everybody else will be playing only their second game.
Hope I didn't confuse you more.
