Winning Long-Term In Sports Gambling

[SoundofSilence]

Just a few brief points, just kinda rambling:


Any rosters, trends, statistics you look up on any major sport -- do you think the Vegas oddsmakers don't already know this information and have adjusted the line accordingly?

Don't be fooled into think books adjust their lines based on the amount of action they are getting on one side -- books adjust their lines based on the Don Best screen.

I'd say 95-98% of sports gamblers do not hit over 57% long-term (many not even close to that). Which means that on the other side, 95-98% of sports gamblers do not hit under 43% long-term. So, you're betting on something that you can expect to hit between 43% and 57% long-term... Yet, people lose their entire bankroll in a manner of weeks/months. Doesn't take a genius to figure out why that is -- poor money management.

Can you convert moneyline values to expected win %'s?

Do you know the value of a half-point in every major sport?

Is your normal unit size 5% of your bankroll or less?

Do you avoid parlays that include more than 4-teams?

Is your "entertainment" wager (if you even have them) less than 1/10 of your normal wager size?


If you answered to "No" to any/all of those questions above, any sportsbook out there would LOVE to have you as a customer.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

good post

 

[wilheim]

Try reading Bob McCune's Education of a sports Bettor.


Contents:
SECTION I
A COMPENDIUM OF BOB’S LORE
The Evolution of a Sports Bettor 1
The Professional Sports Bettor 3
An Indictment 6
This and That 8
It’s a Three-Way Street 10
About the Market 11
Indecision 14
The Pavlov Syndrome 15
What About Teasers 17
Prepare Before You Execute 19
Paper – Rock - Scissors 20
I Resolve 22
Points In Line 23

SECTION II
A CLOSER LOOK
The Other Guy 1
The Gambler’s Mythology 2
Some Monkey Business 5
Experiment In Probability 6
Winning and Losing ATS 8
The Spread Myth 10
Can’t Win for Winning 12
Observations 13
Rifle vs. Shotgun 15
Interrogations & Responses 18
Happy New Year 20
The Illusion Sports 21
Sports Betting & the Stock Market 26
The Las Vegas Zoo in the 1980’s 28
Rappin’ With Reizner 29
Patience, My Friend, Patience 33
Cliches & Proverbs 34

SECTION III
HANDICAPPING HANDICAPPERS
The Handicappers 1
Many Ways to Skin a Cat 2
The Diversity of Handicapping 4
The Elusive (ILLusive?) Edge 6
For the Record 7
Evaluating the Handicappers 9
Hot or Not (?) 11
The Opinionated Handicapper 12
A Player’s Dilemma 14
Why Use a Sports Service? 15
Revelations and Advice 16
Roses Have Thorns 18
Sports Service Marketing 19
New Math 21
The Rating Game 24
Integrity and Rationalizatio 26

SECTION IV
BOOKIES & BETTING LINES
Bookie Business 1
My Bleeding Heart 3
Opinion or Fact 4
Betting the Betting Lines 6
A Line on the Line 8
My ‘Buy’ Line 11
Playing the Line 12

SECTION V
MONEY MANAGEMENT & MORE
Getting Your Money’s Worth 1
Sopping Up the Juice 3
Illustration 5-1 4
3 M’s to Profit – Part 1 6
Illustration 5-2 7
Illustration 5-3 7
3 M’s to Profit – Part 2 8
Illustration 5-4 8
Illustration 5-5 9
Illustration 5-6 9
3 M’s to Profit – Part 3 10
Illustration 5-7 11
Illustration 5-8 11
Illustration 5-9 12
Illustration 5-10 13
Illustration 5-11 13
The Loser…A Short Story 14
Part 1 – The Loser 14
Part 2 – The Winner 16

SECTION VI
FOOTBALL
The Mystique of Football 1
The Pro Game 2
Around the Corner 3
Styles in Handicapping Football 4
Season Thus Far, Etc. 6
The Big Double EE 7
The Grand Finale 9

SECTION VII
BASKETBALL
Come Play with Me 1
A Piece of Cake? 2
Factoring the NBA 5
The Deviation Factor 9

SECTION VIII
BASEBALL
April 1
Odds and Ends ‘Bout Baseball 3
Illustration 8-1 5
The Two-Headed Monster 5
‘Bout Baseball Bettin’ 7
Bantering Baseball Banker & Me 9
The Streak Myth 10
Thoughts on Angles and Theories 12
Thinkers and Likers 14
How I Make a Baseball Line 16
Questions for Answers


Available at Gamblers Bookstore or at Amazon.

[This message was edited by wilheim on May 29, 2004 at 11:54 PM.]

 

[Fezzik]

Be careful about general rules like this; EVERY game is beatable given the right conditions and circumstances.

I answered 'no' to at least 1 question, and I assure you that the no was very justified.

 

[Skyweasel]

is always the same: how do you find outs who will continue to take your action if you actually could beat them say, 58% of the time?

 

[packer2012]

This post highly suspect.

Going to 4 team parlay huge disadvantage compared to 3 teamers.

Many do not play parlays at all, but those who do better know they are taking a huge kid in the sack when they jump from 3 up to 4 teams.

Do the math!!??!!

Also... Moneyline values have absolutely nothing to do with expected win percentages. What on earth do you mean by that? I guess you are trying to draw the connection between a projected chance(%) of winning and then see if the moneyline represents any value?

 

[Horseshoe]

Sky, as many sharp players elevate their skills & rolls, they like Poker players will find themselves sitting in the company of their "own kind" in due time. But when playing these new/larger outs, the competition level for numbers increases also.

Be it a BM sending you on forward to a larger store, as like a school teacher refers a prodigy to a gifted program,etc..

Win at a fat clip or for large enough amounts, and after a while by either asking on one's own, or being cut loose for reeking havoc on a store of scale(even lil' sharp ones), one will find new outs.

Networking is also a must for those looking for outs, info, backing, etc..

It's all to scale, a large BM doesn't sweat as much a consistent winner if they are small to his roll or sheet, and often may be kept as a small nuisance if for no other reason than to use as a guage..especially if picks own and/or plays early for shade/guide material.

 

[SoundofSilence]

Fezzik:

I'd be interested to know which one. Any of those questions that you answer NO to, you're not going to have much of a shot at winning long-term betting.


Skyweasel:

Most people will never have that problem.


Packer:

I actually meant to say in the post "4 team parlays or more". What I was getting at was that once you go past 3-team parlays, you are losing value.


As for the "expected win %'s", my wording may not be great, but I expected many would get the gist of what I was saying. Can you look at a moneyline and know what % you would have to hit at to break even betting it long-term.

 

[DarrylParsons]

SoS,

I don't think parlay avoidance is so important if you know how to figure the odds and the proper way to structure them. Some shops offer deals on larger parlays which in certain circumstances can be very profitable.

I assume this is the one Fezzik was referring to.

 

[Skyweasel]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Sound of Silence:

Skyweasel:

Most people will never have that problem.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Cute, but not an answer to the question.

 

[DarrylParsons]

Sky,

If you win 58% but do not pick off soft lines, beat them to the numbers etc. ie. you pay your juice, then no major bookie will boot you IMO.

They assume you won't sustain it and so far every time they've assumed such a thing they've been right.

 

[randyrohm]

Very general questions which I had to answer a couple of NOs. Have been booted from about 10 books over the years. Granted I have a hard time beating the sharp books, but who doesn't. Hardly play hockey, can't convert large moneylines and wager 1/2 unit on wager just to have some action.

 

[Fezzik]

100% correct D.P.!