Win, Place, Show betting...(help with MATH!?)

AdamD7 · May 17, 2009

I'm a low budget better that likes to bet for fun and not go crazy with systems, strategies, etc. I'll take a "pick of the day" bet from a forum, etc. and place a wager on that horse ......
$3 WIN
$3 PLACE
$4 SHOW
Obviously I want the horse to WIN, then I win all other bets, but sometimes, when the horse only PLACES, I'll win a TINY amount of money (depending on the odds of course) and when it SHOWS, it hedges my bet enough so I only lose 1/2 the amount I wagered (depending on odds of course).
I TOTALLY SUCK at math forumals, etc!
I figured I just ask you guys and get a real answer. Is there any way that I can place a WIN, PLACE, SHOW bet and structure my bets ANY way that I get a profit no matter what the horse finishes (even on the SHOW bet) ? (of couse I know, this all depends on the odds, but please humor me)
Thanks so much guys/gals !
Adam

Michelangelo · May 17, 2009

There is no certain formula.

The only bet that you can know with relative certainty prerace is the win bet (even this can change if a disproportionately large amount of money is bet on your horse or for that matter other horses just before the gate opens).

The place and show payoffs are subject to a couple of factors. The amounts bet on your horse in those pools relative to the total pool, and the amounts bet in those pools on the other horses who run first, second, and third.

The general rule is that if favorites run in your payoffs will be short and if long shots run in your payoffs will be good. But there can, and are often, exceptions to that rule if a horse that is way overbet or underbet runs in or out of those pools.

If you want to be serious about place and show pools you need to see the amounts bet in those pools prerace and you need to make judgements about the over or underbet horses when they show up.

Like everything else in horse racing it's a tricky game.

Good luck.

trytrytry · May 17, 2009

skip place and show almost alWAYS unless a handicapper tells you there is an overlay in the pool like gyno did yesterday a few minutes before post in the Rachel place pool

place and show payoffs really get crused due to something called dime breakage..whish really means a rounding down to the nearest 20 cents..so if your show wager should by math and parimutual odds pay $2.58 they round down to $2.40 killing your profits (some states like NY will round to $2.50 but still that is a huge chuck of your profit...stay away from low paying place and show for that reason alone...

AdamD7 · May 17, 2009

Since my total stake was $10 total. Perhaps I'll just take one horse that I really believe to win and bet $5 to WIN and then another two horse to WIN ONLY at $2.50 each. Or will that dampen my profits too much?

trytrytry · May 17, 2009

best is to play one horse to win..the one horse you think is the best overlay in the race compared to what the off odds look like they will be..... unless you think that two of your horses are overlays based on the odds you think they can win vs the tote.... and if you can wager at a rebate shop like caribsports or bodog that gives you some money back per wager or adds 10% to win like 5dimes for example..if you are wagering off shore..

AdamD7 · May 17, 2009

Dutching effective at all or not worth it?

gremlinlad · May 17, 2009

An old time horse player, who hasnever mortgaged the house front steps on a horse race, once told me the only way to play the horses, have some fun, and have a high percentage of winning money that day is to ONLY BET TO WIN.

Now using that message, I would suggest to watch the betting odds on the toteboard if you cannot watch the horses warming up.

If you can get a toteboard that gives you a total of the moneies in each pool, this is a great tool.

Step 1. Divide the total show pool money bet into the total win pool money. Get a ballpark number ... say 4 point something.

Step 2 Now look at each horses win $$ and show $$ ratio.

Step 3 If you find a horse who's ratio show pool money to the win pool money is higher that the total ratio ( in this case 4) .... that is the horse people are betting that will win the race. NO MATTER WHAT THE ODDS on the horse are.

EXAMPLE:

<TABLE class=toteboard style="CLEAR: both"><THEAD><TR><TH class=track>Track</TH><TH class=race>Race</TH><TH class=post>Post</TH><TH class=mtp>MTP</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">1</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">2</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">3</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">4</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">5</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">6</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">7</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">8</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">9</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">10</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">11</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">12</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">13</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">14</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">15</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 4%">16</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR><TD>Los Alamitos</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>9:09</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>30</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>9/5</TD><TD>25</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>9/2</TD><TD>5/2</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>Win Pool</TD><TD colSpan=2>$3,844</TD><TD>102</TD><TD>298</TD><TD>1135</TD><TD>124</TD><TD>759</TD><TD>562</TD><TD>862</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>Place Pool</TD><TD colSpan=2>$1,651</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>139</TD><TD>480</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>388</TD><TD>194</TD><TD>393</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD><TD>...</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>Show Pool</TD><TD colSpan=2>$703</TD><TD>37</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>155</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>181</TD><TD>157</TD><TD>92</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Most likely to win 3 or 7 in race 2 @ Los Alamitos according to the system. So you would bet the 3 to win because of the higher ratio spread.. then maybe a 1.00 exacta box 3, 7 Total invested $4.00

Finish order of race 2 was 3 - 6- 2-7

The 3 horse paid $4.40 to win for a$2.00 win ticket.

BOL

gl

gynecologist · May 17, 2009

IMO it really depends on the horse and the situation.

To me some horses look like win or nothing types..

Then some look like locks to at least run 2nd or 3rd.. So it really depends on the horse..

Then the situation, if its a 5-6 horse race your show prices are going to be terrible unless a big favorite is off the board.

I personally prefer to bet WIN and PLACE.. But there is a reason for that, When I really, really love a horse they are usually right there and run no worse than 2nd.. So I'll bet WP.

I think a good formula would be 40% WIN 60% place.

But it always depends on the situation.