Will you bet a line that has moved quite a bit and the number is now worse for you

[Iceman]

So for example you like Detroit as a underdog in football and the game opens +7.5 and you decide 5 days later (on game day) that you want to bet them, will you bet the game if the number is down to +4?

Will you let this effect your decision at all?

I have did this a lot this past year and though I cant 100% verify it I think it has saved me a lot of money.

Even if I made Detroit a 1 point dog and the line is still off enough in my eyes (3 points in the above example) I feel my numbers were way too far off and I lost the value. I know a few guys who refuse to break this rule.

I think in the long run it is probably smarter to pass on a game that has moved too much and a lot of the value is now gone. You will lose a few like this and be kicking yourself but if you hold firm and follow this rule I think it is smarter long term (IMO). Like to hear what others think.

 

[bellyputter]

You snooze you lose! Iceman, it's human nature to second guess missing out on a good #, but it's ignorant to lay a bad one.

 

[bellyputter]

Back in the "computer days," I used to watch followers get destroyed laying bad #s.

 

[SportSavant]

This is one of my cardinal rules, If you cant get the best of the number, walk away to play another day.

Now of course, every rule has some exceptions..... and there are times that I just MUST take the action with the "lesser" number becoz I still see tremendous value.

I laugh when i see these threads in the sports forums posting something li:

"My book has 8, do you think its still a good play at 8"? when the handicapper posted the team -7.

First of all they are only playing at one book? obviously foolish, secondly they are willing to wager on a lesser number? It just goes to show how the books stay in business.


Great question Iceman

 

[tatehill2000]

Depends Ice, If I get some Lg money down at +7.5, then i may throw pocket change at +4,,,(with me haveing the number handicapped at even) only pocket change,,,,

Tater

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Back in the "computer days," I used to watch followers get destroyed laying bad #s.

Watched those same followers....:missingteif you are going to gamble, never bet bad numbers, walk away.....injuries may be different, especially if you get them early...

 

[patswin]

For me it depends on the line

In your example no I would not bet +4 if I could have gotten +7.5 earlier.

In baseball if I like a team +135 and the line drops to say +130 or +132 yes I will still bet them

 

[bellyputter]

Watched those same followers....:missingteif you are going to gamble, never bet bad numbers, walk away.....injuries may be different, especially if you get them early...

VIEJO, many times those followers were getting down when Billy was buying back. hno:

 

[bellyputter]

For me it depends on the line

In your example no I would not bet +4 if I could have gotten +7.5 earlier.

In baseball if I like a team +135 and the line drops to say +130 or +132 yes I will still bet them

patswin, baseball is different. While laying bad prices will hurt your bottom line, it won't destroy you.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

VIEJO, many times those followers were getting down when Billy was buying back. hno:

How about Chuck's numbers in pro basketball, especially his totals...he would go under 212 and by the end of the day the total was down to 205 and then the final score would be something like 110-101...:nohead:

 

[bellyputter]

How about Chuck's numbers in pro basketball, especially his totals...he would go under 212 and by the end of the day the total was down to 205 and then the final score would be something like 110-101...:nohead:

I used to know a guy that "moved" for Chuck. A great position to be in.

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Chuck and one of his movers are living in Thailand these days...Chuck still plays a little but nothing to the magnitude of the late 80's...one of the nicer guys in the industry also..

 

[Bluemyboy]

rarely will I still play it.... but pretty much lay off. I just cannot stomach getting beat on a bad number. If it has moved as much as you put in your example, I sometimes start looking at a play on the other side.