In the six major categories there was at least one upset almost every year. Since Slumdog/Boyle and Ledger seem to be sure things, I would expect an "upset" at "Suporting Actress".
Cruz isn't heavily favored anyways and "Vicky, Cristina, Barcelona" isn't your typical academy-type movie and she probably has the toughest competition compared to the categories.
Besides taht, Departures was a longshot at +1300 at "Best Foreign Film" and came way down. Wouldn't bee surprised if they beat out "Waltz with Bashir" tonight.
Cruz isn't heavily favored anyways and "Vicky, Cristina, Barcelona" isn't your typical academy-type movie and she probably has the toughest competition compared to the categories.
Besides taht, Departures was a longshot at +1300 at "Best Foreign Film" and came way down. Wouldn't bee surprised if they beat out "Waltz with Bashir" tonight.
The Academy is mostly made up of a bunch of stick in the ass pompous Hollywood idiots. These are just a few of the terrible Best Picture decisions they've made over the years:
Shakespeare in Love wins best picture over Saving Private Ryan
Ordinary People wins over Raging Bull..you've got to be fucking kidding me
Driving Miss Daisy wins over Born On The Fourth Of July and Glory
Amadeus wins over A Soldier's Story
Out Of Africa wins over The Color Purple...Out Of Africa was a snorefest.
Shakespeare in Love wins best picture over Saving Private Ryan
Ordinary People wins over Raging Bull..you've got to be fucking kidding me
Driving Miss Daisy wins over Born On The Fourth Of July and Glory
Amadeus wins over A Soldier's Story
Out Of Africa wins over The Color Purple...Out Of Africa was a snorefest.
The academy tends to play politics when they vote. Although they've done a little better the last few years, there are always one or two upsets. But this is the way I break it down:
Best Actor: Sean Penn will win because of Hollywood's relationship to the gay community. But Mickey Rourke should win.
Best Actress: This one could be the big upset of the night. I think Winslet and Streep could split the vote and Anne Hathaway will come in and steal it.
Best Supporting actor: Heath Ledger...And it won't be close.
Best Supporting Actress: This is a very close race. But I think Viola Davis could win it for Doubt. If for no other reason than more people have probably seen Doubt than some of the movies these other actresses played in. But I liked Marisa Tomei's acting in the Wrestler more than anybody else that I've seen here.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire. This movie has so much momentum going for it that I don't think it will lose. If it does it will probably be to Milk, which again would be for political reasons and Hollywood and the gay community. Or Frost/Nixon because of Hollywood politics. But my bet is they'll go for the feel-good movie of the bunch.
Best Actor: Sean Penn will win because of Hollywood's relationship to the gay community. But Mickey Rourke should win.
Best Actress: This one could be the big upset of the night. I think Winslet and Streep could split the vote and Anne Hathaway will come in and steal it.
Best Supporting actor: Heath Ledger...And it won't be close.
Best Supporting Actress: This is a very close race. But I think Viola Davis could win it for Doubt. If for no other reason than more people have probably seen Doubt than some of the movies these other actresses played in. But I liked Marisa Tomei's acting in the Wrestler more than anybody else that I've seen here.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire. This movie has so much momentum going for it that I don't think it will lose. If it does it will probably be to Milk, which again would be for political reasons and Hollywood and the gay community. Or Frost/Nixon because of Hollywood politics. But my bet is they'll go for the feel-good movie of the bunch.
