Whenever I see one book or another come into this forum with this offer or that offer it continually amazes me all the responses I see from moderators and other respected posters such as:
Wilheim: “Ya gotta love free half points. I'm in.””
Fishhead: Count me in!!
How many posters stop for even 5 seconds to ask the simple question:
"Why would any successful well run sportsbook need to make such lucrative offers in order to get new customers"
Any well run book with a decent marketing strategy and solid customer base will have a need to resort to extreme measures like this. I say extreme because the simple point of the matter is NO book can make money booking at Team A -3.5 -110 and Team B +4.5 -110.
The math simply does not work out. If this were such a successful strategy market leaders such as CRIS and OLYMPIC would have been doing it for years. Have they? NO. And their chances of offering this kind of deal any time soon? ZERO. Here is the math assuming the game lands on the # 2.5% of the time:
39 (97.5%) times you take in 220 and pay out 210 and make 10 for a total of 390 profit
1 time you take in 220 and payout 200 for a total of -200 profit
So your theoretical hold is $190 for (220 x 40) = $8800 in action or 2.16%
- neteller deposit and payout fees
- all those damn bonuses and reups
- the fact that no book makes the theoretical hold (go ask “The Greek” if he holds the theoretical 4.55% on nba he would be happy to hold half that)
- the fact that all the rx and mw readers you appear to be targeting most aggressively with your marketing strategy are on the whole scammers, bonus whores, angle shooters, and middlers all price shopping so much with pinnacle and other low vig shops you will do well to get any square action at all from these guys.
= basically you will struggle to even break even
Another illustration of how dumb (or desperate) these guys at skybook are for postup is they are happy to give a free half point on sides but are reluctant to give it on totals. But why is this? Any idiot with half a brain knows giving a half point on sides is far more advantageous to the player than on a total because the variance is much lower on sides.
On a total a half point is worth 5 cents i.e. Under 190 -110 = Under 189.5 -105 . I would like to inform these clowns at Skybook that they are already giving the free half point on totals because where Skybook has Under 190 -110 their sister book IIS already allows me to bet Under 190 -105 anyhow! So why not give me the option of Under 190.5 -110 it's the same thing!
Based upon this evidence I simply have to pose the question: How are you guys making any money at all?
My only conclusion can be that you guys are simply trying to attract some postup to keep the cashflow situation reasonable until your next chance at making some profit (next football season as you can hardly call this one a success, can you ;-) ) . And bearing this in mind myself and I am sure some other members of this forums have our reservations at holding large balances with you. We appreciate you are a big book and that the Shrink typically uses his customary phrase “High Rollers with Deep Pockets” to describe your ownership but still where there is smoke there is always some chance of a fire.
My friends and I are quite happy to give you our action because all these half points (even at $500 a pop) do make a difference to our bottom line at the end of the year, and yours to by the time you have paid our fees on neteller deposits and now even 1 free withdrawal a month plus given us a 10% reup bonus on top. However I can only play with you on the condition that THE SHRINK is still extending his offer to guarantee all postup into RIO/ IIS /SKYBOOK as was open not long ago.
I would appreciate a quick response because all these free 0.5 I am missing already are starting to cost me!
Regards from the other side of the pond
Braveheart
[This message was edited by Braveheart on January 17, 2004 at 08:06 PM.]
Wilheim: “Ya gotta love free half points. I'm in.””
Fishhead: Count me in!!
How many posters stop for even 5 seconds to ask the simple question:
"Why would any successful well run sportsbook need to make such lucrative offers in order to get new customers"
Any well run book with a decent marketing strategy and solid customer base will have a need to resort to extreme measures like this. I say extreme because the simple point of the matter is NO book can make money booking at Team A -3.5 -110 and Team B +4.5 -110.
The math simply does not work out. If this were such a successful strategy market leaders such as CRIS and OLYMPIC would have been doing it for years. Have they? NO. And their chances of offering this kind of deal any time soon? ZERO. Here is the math assuming the game lands on the # 2.5% of the time:
39 (97.5%) times you take in 220 and pay out 210 and make 10 for a total of 390 profit
1 time you take in 220 and payout 200 for a total of -200 profit
So your theoretical hold is $190 for (220 x 40) = $8800 in action or 2.16%
- neteller deposit and payout fees
- all those damn bonuses and reups
- the fact that no book makes the theoretical hold (go ask “The Greek” if he holds the theoretical 4.55% on nba he would be happy to hold half that)
- the fact that all the rx and mw readers you appear to be targeting most aggressively with your marketing strategy are on the whole scammers, bonus whores, angle shooters, and middlers all price shopping so much with pinnacle and other low vig shops you will do well to get any square action at all from these guys.
= basically you will struggle to even break even
Another illustration of how dumb (or desperate) these guys at skybook are for postup is they are happy to give a free half point on sides but are reluctant to give it on totals. But why is this? Any idiot with half a brain knows giving a half point on sides is far more advantageous to the player than on a total because the variance is much lower on sides.
On a total a half point is worth 5 cents i.e. Under 190 -110 = Under 189.5 -105 . I would like to inform these clowns at Skybook that they are already giving the free half point on totals because where Skybook has Under 190 -110 their sister book IIS already allows me to bet Under 190 -105 anyhow! So why not give me the option of Under 190.5 -110 it's the same thing!
Based upon this evidence I simply have to pose the question: How are you guys making any money at all?
My only conclusion can be that you guys are simply trying to attract some postup to keep the cashflow situation reasonable until your next chance at making some profit (next football season as you can hardly call this one a success, can you ;-) ) . And bearing this in mind myself and I am sure some other members of this forums have our reservations at holding large balances with you. We appreciate you are a big book and that the Shrink typically uses his customary phrase “High Rollers with Deep Pockets” to describe your ownership but still where there is smoke there is always some chance of a fire.
My friends and I are quite happy to give you our action because all these half points (even at $500 a pop) do make a difference to our bottom line at the end of the year, and yours to by the time you have paid our fees on neteller deposits and now even 1 free withdrawal a month plus given us a 10% reup bonus on top. However I can only play with you on the condition that THE SHRINK is still extending his offer to guarantee all postup into RIO/ IIS /SKYBOOK as was open not long ago.
I would appreciate a quick response because all these free 0.5 I am missing already are starting to cost me!
Regards from the other side of the pond
Braveheart
[This message was edited by Braveheart on January 17, 2004 at 08:06 PM.]
