Why they won't make the playoffs:
They will need to get at least 91 points to make the top eight, and likely more. Since the lock out no Eastern Conference team has made the playoffs with less than 92 points. It took 94 last year.
Just to reach 91 they would have to go 16-10 in their last 26 games. Any other combination using OT loses would be just as difficult, (ie: 13-4-6). When you start figuring combinations to reach 92 points or higher the results would be insurmountable.
They play 10 of their next 13 on the road where they, like most of the other teams, are below .500. (Pens are 12-12-3 on the road).
Among those 10 road games they oppose Washington twice, Philadelphia, Chicago, Dallas, Florida, and Columbus.
Besides these tough road tests they face no less than 5 teams at home that own better squads at this time including teams like Florida, Boston, Calgary, New Jersey, and Philadelphia.
Yes Gonchar might be back as early as tonight but what effect he will have until he gets into game shape is debatable. Because of the off season loses and lack of secondary scoring they are forced to play Crosby and Malkin over 22 minutes a game. Only one forward plays more in the NHL, (Ovechkin). After playing deep into June last year, how long before this workload takes it's toll on Pittsburgh's lone two legitimate scoring threats?
Penguins don't have the depth, talent, or ease of schedule to win 16 games in their final 26.
I believe the eight eastern teams you see in playoff position today is what you get in April.