Will stock market ever become a thing of the past?

[SECplayer]

Read a pretty interesting article a couple weeks back that questioned whether the stock market as we know it today would continue well into the future.

Their logic was was that nowadays many of the best up and coming companies prefer to skip "going public" because of the costs and because of the constant headaches of having to meet quarterly goals.

These companies instead seek capital through strictly private means (investors, venture capital firms, etc.).

Just thought it was interesting.

If the stock market became a thing of the past, think how many other things that would have to change because they are directly tied to it (retirement accounts, life insurance, etc...).

Any credence to this theory or more of an exaggeration?

 

[MikeB]

I don't think that the establishment would let that happen.


If you want to go public then you need to go through the motions I'm thinking.

 

[SECplayer]

I don't think that the establishment would let that happen.


If you want to go public then you need to go through the motions I'm thinking.

But I think that is the concern. That these newer companies will not want to go public. They'll stay private.

 

[DesertNole]

And get capital from where? VC's and angels seed these new companies with an exit/liquidity event in mind.

 

[Illini]

The owners of a company that hits it big are always gonna want to cashout a lot of their equity.

 

[DNoonan]

Very hard to keep top tech talent without providing liquidity for their equity over time. if the only way people can monetize their equity gains is if the biz is sold or if the company allows employees to participate in a secondary offering you would have a hard time competing over the long term. IMO this is just whining from companies that don't like falling short. The advantages these cos get from going public far outweigh the drawbacks. I'm working with several hoping to go in the next 6-12. This is still what most young tech cos strive for. But it is true some of the most valuable are in no rush for now. It will be pressure from employees/execs sitting on huge gains that push many to test public waters. They make a ton on the IPO and then they bitch about being public!

With that said companies in some industries shouldnt be public imo.

 

[DNoonan]

The owners of a company that hits it big are always gonna want to cashout a lot of their equity.

yep

 

[PatsFan1283]

It's a big exaggeration.

Whenever you get M&A or VC booms you tend to have people think everything will go private eventually but it just would never happen.

As long as ownership/equity stakes in businesses are swapped then it makes sense for it to be done on a public market.

Even the companies staying private like Uber or AirBnB will go public eventually to cashout. They're just taking longer.

DNoonan is right, some companies just aren't really equipped to be scrutinized or analyzed on a quarterly basis. Like a spaceX for instance.

 

[RenoChazz]

I think it's more likely that eventually computers and bots will be doing all the jobs, and the market will be all we got.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I think it's more likely that eventually computers and bots will be doing all the jobs, and the market will be all we got.

Would that be a bad thing?

If there isn't resource scarcity then displacement won't really matter much.

Although our current government model may not be optimal, tough to say.

That is a question for way into the future though.

 

[RenoChazz]

Would that be a bad thing?

If there isn't resource scarcity then displacement won't really matter much.

Although our current government model may not be optimal, tough to say.

That is a question for way into the future though.

I think it will be a good thing. Labor jobs suck, it's better if we're all job creators. We're long ways from that though.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I think it will be a good thing. Labor jobs suck, it's better if we're all job creators. We're long ways from that though.

We're a long way from something like strong-AI just replacing human intelligence in the workforce.

But most manufacturing/labor will be done by robots with human augmentation sooner than later. Atleast in the 1st world.

As this change happens, companies life cycles are going to get shorter and shorter and that could have a big impact on the market becoming far more volatile.

Still think S&P will likely crush during this change, just turnover will be more rapid.

 

[DesertNole]

Private markets are in a bubble, angels and VC are buried in portfolio companies with ridiculously rich valuations. Uber $75B? Really? Good luck pushing that crap out to the public markets.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Uber could definitely be a multi-hundred billion dollar company if everything goes their way. I'd bet against it, probably comes down to how strong their 1st mover advantage is because once the regulatory hurdles clearup then that is really the only advantage they have.

It is basically already a verb, so they do have that going for them.

 

[Hamilbet]

The market is where the rich get wealthy. The wealthy run the country/world. They won't allow it to fail without a steady replaceable source.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Do you remember the title of the article or anything?

 

[SECplayer]

Do you remember the title of the article or anything?

I don't remember exact title. I looked prior to posting this thread and looked again just now and cannot find it. Im usually pretty good at finding it with Google by just including a few buzz words I remember from the article. Unfortunately most of those words like "stock market, ipo, private investor" bring up a million other articles.

Anybody have any advice on a more pointed way to search? The gist of the article is pretty well summarized in my original post if that might help others search for it.