Will SL hit +7.5 ?

[Doug]

Any thoughts ? I overbet GB -6, hoping to middle. Need some back on SL, can get +7 +105. I'll take +7 +110, or +7.5 -110. I prefer +7.5, although +7 +110 is probably stronger. I want chance to win both bets !

 

[Fishhead]

PINNACLE.........GOING UP!


<TABLE borderColor=#333333 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 align=center border=1><TBODY><TR bgColor=#cfcfcf><TD align=left width="100%" colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=11111111111 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width="80%" center="align">185) Rams at (186) Packers</TD><TD vAlign=center align=right width="20%"><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom align=middle height=12> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>refresh</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#000066><TD class=header> Move </TD><TD class=header> Moneyline </TD><TD class=header> Spread </TD><TD class=header> Total </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:42:06</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 265
-285</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-106/-104</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:37:40</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> OFF
OFF</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:34:21</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 265
-285</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-106/-104</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:33:15</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 265
-285</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:32:09</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> OFF
OFF</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:14:31</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 270
-300</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:13:58</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:12:19</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 270
-300</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
15:09:33</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 273
-293</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
14:46:58</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 277
-297</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
14:15:34</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 273
-293</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
14:01:48</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 277
-297</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
13:24:18</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 270
-300</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-107/-103</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
13:22:06</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 270
-300</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-108/-102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
13:17:09</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 265
-285</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-108/-102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
13:16:35</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 7.0
-108/-102</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
12:36:22</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
104/-114</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
12:23:42</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
102/-112</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-109/-101</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
12:20:57</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
102/-112</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-104/-106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
12:18:12</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
101/-111</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-104/-106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
11:41:19</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
103/-113</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-104/-106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
11:34:42</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> OFF
OFF</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
11:10:59</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
103/-113</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-104/-106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
10:48:57</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
102/-112</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-104/-106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
10:03:10</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
104/-114</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-104/-106</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
10:02:04</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
104/-114</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
09:43:21</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
103/-113</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
09:36:45</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 253
-273</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
103/-113</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
09:19:05</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
104/-114</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
09:01:27</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
102/-112</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
08:15:43</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
104/-114</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
04:56:41</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
105/-115</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-101/-109</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
04:48:58</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 256
-276</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
105/-115</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
04:34:39</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
105/-115</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
04:33:33</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
103/-113</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
01:37:44</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 247
-267</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
103/-113</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
01:20:38</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 247
-267</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
102/-112</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-29
00:37:04</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
102/-112</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-29
00:12:50</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
100/-110</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-28
22:17:04</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 246
-266</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
100/-110</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-28
20:04:15</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
100/-110</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-107/-103</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-28
19:51:01</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
100/-110</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-110/100</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-28
19:48:17</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
100/-110</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-28
19:40:00</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 0
0</TD><TD class=data align=middle> OFF
OFF</TD><TD class=data align=middle>OFF
OFF</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#cccccc><TD class=data>2004-11-28
19:39:27</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 250
-270</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
100/-110</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-105/-105</TD></TR><TR bgColor=white><TD class=data>2004-11-28
17:11:13</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 240
-260</TD><TD class=data align=middle> 6.5
100/-110</TD><TD class=data align=middle>o51.0
-105/-105</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Doug]

Thanks Fish: I am aware of live lines. I think it goes to 7.5, wanted other's opinions.

 

[Noreaga+]

no way does it move to 7.5 this late, books would get killed

 

[Fishhead]

It will be close..........it would appear to me that -7 should be a pretty solid number.

I mean, the RAMS have to garnish some respect in this spot i would imagine.

I would bet AGAINST it going to a solid -7.5..............but sure a few places will have it if for only a brief time

I am with you and hope that I am wrong.......would love nothing better than to see this go higher.

Have a good night DOUG.

 

[bigbet1234]

i'm all over the rammies

 

[MrGoodDr]

No way this number goes to 7.5 in the big stores, little one for short period of time, but very short i presume.

JMO i think that 7 is a good number for this game, but what do i know.....

 

[jwblue]

Rams blow on the road.

IS

 

[Doug]

Well +7.5 costs -124 at Pinny now. They've moved from +7 -103 to -108, over a few hours.

 

[Journeyman]

And if it goes over 7.5 and lands on 7 books lose all the way around again and this year goes down as the year of the squares for sure! Can't see it going to 7.5

 

[Journeyman]

Doug are you strictly a middler ?

 

[jjgold]

Rams are the play here

 

[Doug]

I just bought the +7 +105 ( rough equivalent of +7.5). So I have -6 -110/ +7 +105, more on -6. I've never been able to figure out who bets -7 -125 at SIA, when -7 -110 is the norm.

J-man: No I'm not strictly a middler. I use that tactic as an additional tool. If I middle I usually have unbalanced action. If it's there, or I see it will be I play for it. I can't get down enough on these bets to survive. I'd like to have more on this set of bets, but limits exist, esp. at SIA.

I play a lot of bets and a lot of sports. I scalp too. Most bets are just sides and totals, rarely parlay. I like to get the BR in action though.

 

[KeithRichard]

I would have waited to at least an hour before kickoff if I was playing some at SIA. Odds will be better then or at least what you have now. Of course I realize there are small betting limits there too.

 

[Puckhandler]

A little off topic, but 5Dimes has a prop bet:

GB to win by 7 +1300

FYI

 

[jjgold]

I am waiting to but this line might go the other way as I think Rams money will be the late money

 

[Fishhead]

A little off topic, but 5Dimes has a prop bet:

GB to win by 7 +1300

FYI

The true odds are approximently +1950

TERRIBLE TERRIBLE BET!

 

[UberTout]

How did you estimate the true odds on that prop, fishhead?


UT

 

[Fishhead]

How did you estimate the true odds on that prop, fishhead?


UT

7 point favorites win by exactly 7 points a tad over 5% of the time in the NFL...........which is ONE in TWENTY........or +2000.

 

[Hitman26]

Fishy:



Could you give me the formula for equating moneylines with expected percentage hits? For example if a team is a -459 favorite what percentage of the time will that team cover. Assume that the dog would also be +459.




Thanks
Hitman