[h=1]Giants will make playoffs in 2014[/h][h=3]Upgrades at two key positions and improved luck will fuel a turnaround[/h]By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
Things sure have changed in the NFC East. For a long time, it was arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Now it is coming off of a season where the four clubs won a total of 28 games, the second-lowest number of wins by a division last year.
The downside to this win/loss showing is a relative drop in prestige, but the upside is it can mean a quick turnaround for any club in the division.
The strongest candidate for such a move is the New York Giants, as there are a number of metrics and scouting/personnel factors pointing towards Big Blue being able to notch a double-digit win total and earn a spot in the 2014 playoffs.
Let's examine the reasons the Giants could make a postseason run.
A major turnaround in Eli Manning's turnovers
Last season was one of the worst of Eli Manning's NFL tenure. He posted his lowest Total QBR in the eight years this metric has been tracked (36.5). Manning also had a career high in interceptions (27) and posted his lowest touchdown pass total since becoming a full-time starter (18).
As daunting as those figures are, the reality is a lot of Manning's woes were due to errors other than his own. According to my tape breakdowns, Manning, who had ankle surgery Thursday but should be back in six weeks, had a bad decision rate (BDR) of 2.4 percent (BDR tracks how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team). That is actually lower than his 2.8 percent BDR in 2012, when he threw just 15 picks, so he actually took a step forward in that category last season. In addition, only three of Manning's interceptions occurred as a result of these bad decisions.
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Where he got hurt in the interception department is picks that occurred due to factors other than bad decisions. Four were due to miscommunications with wide receivers, and two happened because a receiver ran the wrong route. Those types of picks are completely avoidable (none of Manning's interceptions in 2012 occurred due to these types of mistakes) so to see a significant drop in his interceptions total would not be a surprise.
Better luck could also lead to an improvement in this area. Manning had a total of 54 interceptions and near-interceptions last season (a near-interception defined as a pass that hits a defender's catch frame that doesn't result in a pick). Since 27 were turned into interceptions, that is an interception conversion rate of 50 percent. The leaguewide average in this category is 40 percent, so a return to a standard luck level could reduce the interception total even further.
Improved team health
According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric that calculates how teams are impacted by injuries, New York had the worst injury luck in the NFL last season. Their 144.6 AGL is the highest in the Football Outsiders' injury database, which goes back to the 2000 season.
The good news is teams that finished last in the league in AGL have on average ranked 17th in that metric the following season. If that holds to form, the Giants will not have to deal with anywhere near as many physical ailments as they did this past season, and they should see a bump in performance as a result.
Offensive line improvements
Those aforementioned injuries had a particularly significant impact on the offensive line and led to New York faring quite badly in two key metrics: percentage of sacks that occurred with four or fewer pass rushers (65 percent, ranked tied for 25th) and number of rushing plays that gained zero or fewer yards (105, ranked 27th).
The club has taken an active and varied approach to upgrading this group.
The Giants signed free-agent tackle Charles Brown, who graded out tied for second among free-agent offensive tackles in Bill Polian's free-agent tracker. Two other additions were John Jerry, who graded out tied for third among free-agent offensive guards, and Geoff Schwartz, who is an accomplished finisher and run blocker.
The O-line upgrades may not stop there, as Todd McShay has the Giants selecting Michigan offensive tackle Taylor Lewan in the first round of his Mock Draft 4.0.
Running back upgrade
Rashad Jennings may turn out to be one of the most significant free-agent signings in the NFL this offseason. Last year he ranked 14th in yards per carry (4.5), second in yards per rush after contact (2.2) and tied for first in fumbles on rushing plays (zero), but his biggest impact may come in the passing game.
Jennings placed 18th among running backs in yards per reception (8.11), 11th in receiving yards after contact (94), tied for first in drop percentage (zero percent) and third in receiving percentage (85.7 percent). The Giants ranked next-to-last in receiving yards by running backs (370), so Jennings' addition should go a long way toward turning that weakness around.
Better sequential offense
Those offensive upgrades should go a long way toward improving New York's Down Set Conversion Rate (DSCR).
This ESPN Stats & Information statistic measures the rate at which a first down eventually yields another first down. It is a good rule of thumb for gauging how effective a team is at putting together a sequential offensive series, and New York's 60.6 percent mark here ranked dead last in the NFL. It was a huge drop-off from the 2012 season that saw Big Blue place sixth with a 71.2 percent DSCR. Even if these personnel moves yield a DSCR midway between those two figures, it could result in at least an additional 15-20 first downs, which would have a significant impact on the Giants' overall offensive efficiency.
Cornerback upgrades
The Giants' secondary was hit with a ton of injuries last season and yet still allowed only 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA), a mark that ranked fourth in the league.
New York brings back two quality cornerbacks in Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride. Amukamara posted a 7.6 overall YPA, which is a solid figure for a starting cornerback, but tallied a 9.2 vertical YPA (VYPA, a metric gauging production on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), a showing below the double-digit VYPA bar that serves as the rule of thumb for above-average performance in this category.
McBride started 10 games last year and more than held his own with a superb 4.5 YPA on 64 targets and 5.2 VYPA on 38 targets. It is a true luxury to have someone of this coverage caliber as a No. 3 or No. 4 cornerback.
Those two will be joined this year by free-agent acquisitions Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond. Rodgers-Cromartie had a bit of an off year in 2013 with an 8.4 overall YPA, but a 79-yard touchdown pass Dez Bryant scored against DRC in Week 5 skewed that number. Bryant is the type of wideout who can beat just about any cornerback on a good day, so that isn't exactly an indicator of subpar performance. Take that play out of Rodgers-Cromartie's numbers, and his YPA drops to a 7.2-yard level, which is a starting-caliber figure and more likely a true measure of how good he is in coverage.
Thurmond allowed a mere 132 yards on 25 targets last year, totals that result in a very good 5.3 YPA. Like McBride, he is quite capable of filling in as a starter and gives the Giants superb depth at this position.
Bottom line
That the Giants were able to win seven games last season despite horrible luck and a slew of injuries unprecedented in the past decade speaks to just how incredibly effective their coaching staff is at working around problems. Given the wide variety of upgrades listed above and the talent this team can bring home in the draft, Tom Coughlin and company likely won't have to perform any miracles in 2014. Barring another disaster, the Giants will have all of the tools necessary to record a double-digit win total and earn a spot in the NFC playoffs.
Things sure have changed in the NFC East. For a long time, it was arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Now it is coming off of a season where the four clubs won a total of 28 games, the second-lowest number of wins by a division last year.
The downside to this win/loss showing is a relative drop in prestige, but the upside is it can mean a quick turnaround for any club in the division.
The strongest candidate for such a move is the New York Giants, as there are a number of metrics and scouting/personnel factors pointing towards Big Blue being able to notch a double-digit win total and earn a spot in the 2014 playoffs.
Let's examine the reasons the Giants could make a postseason run.
A major turnaround in Eli Manning's turnovers
Last season was one of the worst of Eli Manning's NFL tenure. He posted his lowest Total QBR in the eight years this metric has been tracked (36.5). Manning also had a career high in interceptions (27) and posted his lowest touchdown pass total since becoming a full-time starter (18).
As daunting as those figures are, the reality is a lot of Manning's woes were due to errors other than his own. According to my tape breakdowns, Manning, who had ankle surgery Thursday but should be back in six weeks, had a bad decision rate (BDR) of 2.4 percent (BDR tracks how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team). That is actually lower than his 2.8 percent BDR in 2012, when he threw just 15 picks, so he actually took a step forward in that category last season. In addition, only three of Manning's interceptions occurred as a result of these bad decisions.
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Where he got hurt in the interception department is picks that occurred due to factors other than bad decisions. Four were due to miscommunications with wide receivers, and two happened because a receiver ran the wrong route. Those types of picks are completely avoidable (none of Manning's interceptions in 2012 occurred due to these types of mistakes) so to see a significant drop in his interceptions total would not be a surprise.
Better luck could also lead to an improvement in this area. Manning had a total of 54 interceptions and near-interceptions last season (a near-interception defined as a pass that hits a defender's catch frame that doesn't result in a pick). Since 27 were turned into interceptions, that is an interception conversion rate of 50 percent. The leaguewide average in this category is 40 percent, so a return to a standard luck level could reduce the interception total even further.
Improved team health
According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric that calculates how teams are impacted by injuries, New York had the worst injury luck in the NFL last season. Their 144.6 AGL is the highest in the Football Outsiders' injury database, which goes back to the 2000 season.
The good news is teams that finished last in the league in AGL have on average ranked 17th in that metric the following season. If that holds to form, the Giants will not have to deal with anywhere near as many physical ailments as they did this past season, and they should see a bump in performance as a result.
Offensive line improvements
Those aforementioned injuries had a particularly significant impact on the offensive line and led to New York faring quite badly in two key metrics: percentage of sacks that occurred with four or fewer pass rushers (65 percent, ranked tied for 25th) and number of rushing plays that gained zero or fewer yards (105, ranked 27th).
The club has taken an active and varied approach to upgrading this group.
The Giants signed free-agent tackle Charles Brown, who graded out tied for second among free-agent offensive tackles in Bill Polian's free-agent tracker. Two other additions were John Jerry, who graded out tied for third among free-agent offensive guards, and Geoff Schwartz, who is an accomplished finisher and run blocker.
The O-line upgrades may not stop there, as Todd McShay has the Giants selecting Michigan offensive tackle Taylor Lewan in the first round of his Mock Draft 4.0.
Running back upgrade
Rashad Jennings may turn out to be one of the most significant free-agent signings in the NFL this offseason. Last year he ranked 14th in yards per carry (4.5), second in yards per rush after contact (2.2) and tied for first in fumbles on rushing plays (zero), but his biggest impact may come in the passing game.
Jennings placed 18th among running backs in yards per reception (8.11), 11th in receiving yards after contact (94), tied for first in drop percentage (zero percent) and third in receiving percentage (85.7 percent). The Giants ranked next-to-last in receiving yards by running backs (370), so Jennings' addition should go a long way toward turning that weakness around.
Better sequential offense
Those offensive upgrades should go a long way toward improving New York's Down Set Conversion Rate (DSCR).
This ESPN Stats & Information statistic measures the rate at which a first down eventually yields another first down. It is a good rule of thumb for gauging how effective a team is at putting together a sequential offensive series, and New York's 60.6 percent mark here ranked dead last in the NFL. It was a huge drop-off from the 2012 season that saw Big Blue place sixth with a 71.2 percent DSCR. Even if these personnel moves yield a DSCR midway between those two figures, it could result in at least an additional 15-20 first downs, which would have a significant impact on the Giants' overall offensive efficiency.
Cornerback upgrades
The Giants' secondary was hit with a ton of injuries last season and yet still allowed only 6.3 yards per attempt (YPA), a mark that ranked fourth in the league.
New York brings back two quality cornerbacks in Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride. Amukamara posted a 7.6 overall YPA, which is a solid figure for a starting cornerback, but tallied a 9.2 vertical YPA (VYPA, a metric gauging production on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), a showing below the double-digit VYPA bar that serves as the rule of thumb for above-average performance in this category.
McBride started 10 games last year and more than held his own with a superb 4.5 YPA on 64 targets and 5.2 VYPA on 38 targets. It is a true luxury to have someone of this coverage caliber as a No. 3 or No. 4 cornerback.
Those two will be joined this year by free-agent acquisitions Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond. Rodgers-Cromartie had a bit of an off year in 2013 with an 8.4 overall YPA, but a 79-yard touchdown pass Dez Bryant scored against DRC in Week 5 skewed that number. Bryant is the type of wideout who can beat just about any cornerback on a good day, so that isn't exactly an indicator of subpar performance. Take that play out of Rodgers-Cromartie's numbers, and his YPA drops to a 7.2-yard level, which is a starting-caliber figure and more likely a true measure of how good he is in coverage.
Thurmond allowed a mere 132 yards on 25 targets last year, totals that result in a very good 5.3 YPA. Like McBride, he is quite capable of filling in as a starter and gives the Giants superb depth at this position.
Bottom line
That the Giants were able to win seven games last season despite horrible luck and a slew of injuries unprecedented in the past decade speaks to just how incredibly effective their coaching staff is at working around problems. Given the wide variety of upgrades listed above and the talent this team can bring home in the draft, Tom Coughlin and company likely won't have to perform any miracles in 2014. Barring another disaster, the Giants will have all of the tools necessary to record a double-digit win total and earn a spot in the NFC playoffs.
