Wild Card Picks

[chonce]

KC -3 (-120) - 2 units
Minn+ 6 (-120) - 2 units
Sea/Min OVER 39.5 (-110) - 2 units


I will likely bet on Washington but I don't feel compelled to do it now. These games seem to be at risk of going the wrong way as far as line movement (some books are down to 5 with Minn). So I think I might as well strike now.

I also like Cinci at +3, but feel I will be able to get 3 later so I am going to keep handicapping. But basically I like all the home teams except HOU.

 

[texansfan]

2 out of 3 ain't bad. @)

 

[chonce]

Add

Cinci +3 (-120) 2 units

Man, last year when I bet on Cinci in the wild card round and lost I felt so dumb. But major differences here -- AJ Green is healthy, where he was not last year. They are home. And Dalton can't blow the game because he isn't playing. I honestly think the injury to D'eangelo Williams at RB hurts Pitt more than the QB injury hurts Cinci. And yet, the line doesn't move 6 points for him. The fact is, the line is accounting too much for the Dalton injury and Pitt -- one of the most popular team's in the country --- is always taxed by the books. I will probably, time permitting, write more of rationale for a lot of these picks tomorrow.

 

[3pointdog]

You got a Great line on minny. I just grabbed +4.5

 

[chonce]

Yeah, I had to pay -120 but even when I made the bet the lines were starting to drop. On the other hand, I paid too much for KC. 5 Dimes has KC at -3-110. They line had been up to a 3.5 but is coming down the other way. I am now wondering if I should add to the bet at the lower price ....

 

[chonce]

5 Dimes has the KC line to -3 (-110). So I am going to add 2 units to my bet. So technically I have 1 bet for 2 units at (-120) and another one for 2 units at -110, but for all practical purposes it is amended to: KC -3 (-115) 4 units

 

[chonce]

Does anyone want to convince me to bail on the MINN/SEA total (OVER) given the weather. OR reassure me?

 

[chonce]

Wild Card Weekend Card So Far (for clarity's sake)

KC -3 (-115) 4 units
Cin +3 (-120) 2 units
Minn +6 (-120) 2 units
Sea/Minn OVER 39.5 2 units (getting cold feet with the weather forecast)

Leaning Wash pretty strongly but gonna give myself time to keep considering it since know key numbers are at stake.

 

[22wins]

nice look card..good luck

 

[chonce]

I rarely do this, but I am going to try for a middle. My max bet looks promising and it would be nice to watch this next game with minimum stress and either hope for a 4 unit payday. The cost is a little bit of juice, but it will ensure I finish the day with a nice profit, so long as KC can hold on. If Pitt wins by 3 I will win just under two units. if they win by 1 or 2 I win 3 units and any other outcome will cost me about .2 or .3 units, which would still ensure a very good day.

Pitt Money Line (-130) 2 units

 

[chonce]

Wow, improbably the middle hits! 3-0 + 8 units today! Wow.

 

[Dexter03]

great day buddy!

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

whoa crushing

 

[chonce]

Playoff Record To Date
3-0 + 8 units

4 unit plays: 1-0 +4 units (KC)
2 unit plays: 2-0 +4 units (middle the Bengals and the Steelers ML)

As noted above today I am on Minny and the OVER. I have some cold feet due to cold weather, but Russ is all over the UNDER so that makes me more confident. I will likely play Washington or maybe a total on the late game, but still mulling my options.

 

[chonce]

For clarity's sake:

Minn +6 -120 2 units (I got this early (Wednesday but I would still bet it at 4.5 if I was shopping today)
Sea/Minn OVER 39.5 2 units (as noted, I am nervous about the cold and considered buying out, but this was my initial assessment and I saw a stat that showed Wilson and Bridgewater are quite good in the cold, statistically.

 

[thesharp09]

Great start chonce. continued success!

 

[chonce]

Thanks Sharp -- hope Minny pulls through for me this afternoon!

 

[chonce]

Updated Record: 4-1 + 7.8 units

Feel dumb for betting the OVER -- I even said above I had cold feet and was compelled to not buy out when I saw Russ on the UNDER Still good start and Minny covers (which was in doubt). Now, what to with Wash? I am leaning Wash FH ML or maybe the total -- admiteddly a little conflicted so I might bet small and see if there is good value at half.

 

[chonce]

4 unit bets: 1-0 (+4 units)
2 unit bets: 3-1 (+3.8 units)

 

[PatsFanatic]

4 unit bets: 1-0 (+4 units)
2 unit bets: 3-1 (+3.8 units)

Great job Chonce